Spatial-Cycle Model Phases and Differential Urbanization of Cities in the Era of National Population Decline: Japanese Cities 1980–2015

Abstract

This chapter reports on the transitions in the urban structure of 109 cities in Japan based on the constituent municipal population of their functional urban regions from 1980 to 2015. The cities consist of central and suburban municipalities and are categorized based on changes in the population of each of these two types of municipalities by applying the spatial-cycle model (SCM). In the 1980s and 90s, many cities in Japan experienced urbanization and suburbanization. In these decades, the largest cities had been showing a tendency of decentralization. However, after 2000, most cities showed a tendency toward centralization, more so among the smaller cities. This result was different from the hypothesized transitions of SCM, lacking the disurbanization phase and often progressing in the reverse direction. In Japan, a clear positive correlation between existing population size and growth has emerged as economic and social changes have proceeded, such as the changing industrial structure and the declining birthrate along with accelerated aging. Population decline occurred earlier in smaller cities than in the larger cities, as did the changes in urban structure, contrary to the predictions of differential urbanization theory. Since the populations of the largest cities are also likely to decrease soon, it is very likely that that these larger cities will also become more centralized as they follow the same tendencies of structural changes that smaller cities have recently experienced.