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Multiplex Network Approach for Modeling the Spread of African Swine Fever in Poland

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Computational Data and Social Networks (CSoNet 2023)

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Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral infection which causes acute disease in Sus scrofa - domestic pigs and wild boar. Although the virus does not cause disease in humans, the impact it has on the economy, especially via trade and farming disturbance, is substantial. We analyze 3487 ASF notifications of wild boars and pigs in Poland (infection events registered to World Animal Health Organization) from February 2014 to April 2019 comprising event time, longitude, latitude and administrative unit: county (poviat). We propose a spatial modeling approach incorporating phenomenological analysis of multiplex transmission networks due to: 1) domestic pig abundance, 2) disease vectors (wild boar) abundance, 3) human mobility related to disease propagation. We used a pseudo gravity model to simulate the future epidemic projection and calculated the most probable infection paths for all counties (poviats) as well as estimated the most likely disease arrival times with or without countermeasures such as border fencing and animals corridors blocking on the A1 motorway. According to our model, the ASF spread in Poland had been continuing and investigated jump in Autumn 2019 to wschowski poviat (Western Poland) 320 km from the closest previously affected area manifests its complex behavior. The proposed complex network approach promises to be useful for practitioners, farmers and veterinarians, helping them to choose the optimal mitigation strategies.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    https://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public/wahid.php/Diseaseinformation/.

  2. 2.

    https://bdl.stat.gov.pl/BDL/start.

  3. 3.

    https://github.com/ajarynowski/ASF/_poland/.

  4. 4.

    http://interdisciplinaryresearch.eu/index.php/asf/.

  5. 5.

    http://naukawpolsce.pap.pl/sites/default/files/201901/Stanowisko%20PAN%20-%20ASF_15%20I%202019%20final.pdf.

  6. 6.

    https://www.gddkia.gov.pl/pl/a/36253/Ustawiamy-prewencyjne-ogrodzenia-by-uniemozliwic-migracje-dzikow.

  7. 7.

    https://github.com/ajarynowski/ASF_poland/.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Interdisciplinary Research Institute, Wroclaw, Poland

    Andrzej Jarynowski

  2. Aidmed, Gdańsk, Poland

    Andrzej Jarynowski & Łukasz Czekaj

  3. Herbert Wertheim School of Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

    Alexander Semenov

  4. System Modeling Group, Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany

    Andrzej Jarynowski & Vitaly Belik

Authors
  1. Andrzej Jarynowski
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  2. Łukasz Czekaj
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  3. Alexander Semenov
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  4. Vitaly Belik
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Andrzej Jarynowski .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam

    Minh Hoàng Hà

  2. Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, USA

    Xingquan Zhu

  3. University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

    My T. Thai

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Jarynowski, A., Czekaj, Ł., Semenov, A., Belik, V. (2024). Multiplex Network Approach for Modeling the Spread of African Swine Fever in Poland. In: Hà, M.H., Zhu, X., Thai, M.T. (eds) Computational Data and Social Networks. CSoNet 2023. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 14479. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-0669-3_32

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-0669-3_32

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