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Time Series Modelling and Forecasting of Patient Arrivals at an Emergency Department of a Select Hospital

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Recent Trends in Signal and Image Processing (ISSIP 2020)

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 1333))

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Abstract

Managing overcrowding with fluctuating patient arrivals in emergency department (ED) of hospitals requires a quantitative approach to make decisions related to resource planning and deployment by hospital administrators. In this context, analysing patient flow and predicting demand will enable better decision making. In this study, 7748 ED arrivals were recorded from a multi-specialty hospital in Bengaluru. The patient flow in each of the working shifts of the ED was analysed separately. Time series modelling techniques have shown to be useful in generating short-term forecasts. Shift-wise modelling approach has been used since hospital resources were planned according to the shifts. Exponential smoothing techniques proposed by Hyndman were used in this study. Model validation was further carried out along with residual analysis. The prediction intervals shift-wise have been obtained with an average confidence level of 90% which will help hospital management to redeploy resources and handle demand with increased operational efficiency.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the anonymous referees for their valuable comments that helped to improve the presentation of the paper in the current form. The first author thanks the R & D Centre and encouragement provided by the Management and Department of Mathematics, BMSIT&M and RIM, Bengaluru. Further, the authors are grateful to the multi-specialty hospital authorities for allowing to conduct the research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ramaiah Institute of Management, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India

    V. Rema

  2. Department of Mathematics, BMS Institute of Technology and Management, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India

    K. Sikdar

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  1. V. Rema
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  2. K. Sikdar
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Correspondence to V. Rema .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Rajnagar Mahavidyalaya, Birbhum, West Bengal, India

    Siddhartha Bhattacharyya

  2. Research and Development, Algebra University College, Zagreb, Croatia

    Leo Mršić

  3. Algebra University College, Zagreb, Croatia

    Maja Brkljačić

  4. Christ (Deemed to be University), Bangalore, Karnataka, India

    Joseph Varghese Kureethara

  5. Graduate School of Creative Informatics, Kyushu Institute of Technology, Fukuoka, Japan

    Mario Koeppen

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Rema, V., Sikdar, K. (2021). Time Series Modelling and Forecasting of Patient Arrivals at an Emergency Department of a Select Hospital. In: Bhattacharyya, S., Mršić, L., Brkljačić, M., Kureethara, J.V., Koeppen, M. (eds) Recent Trends in Signal and Image Processing. ISSIP 2020. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 1333. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6966-5_6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6966-5_6

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  • Print ISBN: 978-981-33-6965-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-981-33-6966-5

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