Abstract
Past episodes of mass uprising and successful transitions from dictatorial rule in Asia and the Middle East and North Africa offer several important lessons for Myanmar. Following weeks and months of popular demonstrations, the fall of presidents Ferdinand Marcos in 1986, Suharto in 1998 and Hosni Mubarak during 2011 Arab Spring, came only after the defection of senior military officers to the people’s cause. The chapter discusses a new political possibility which could be caused by emerging cleavages within and defection of the security forces. As the economic and political fractures in the monolith of Myanmar’s military worsen, the resistance movement is more likely to succeed if it is able to win-over junta softliners who may be open to a different way forward. A chance of an off-ramp depends on whether the democracy movement can offer segments of the security apparatus and current junta collaborators an agreement capable of securing defection.
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Notes
- 1.
World Bank (2021).
- 2.
Moe (2021).
- 3.
Lee (2014).
- 4.
Skocpol (1979).
- 5.
Zhao (1989).
- 6.
Chenoweth & Stephan (2011).
- 7.
Kurzman (1979).
- 8.
Stephan & Chenoweth (2008).
- 9.
Cook (2006).
- 10.
Professionalism is defined as a commitment (1965).
- 11.
The discussion in this section (2014).
- 12.
Author fieldnotes (2017).
- 13.
Ibid (2014).
- 14.
Selth (2021a).
- 15.
Seekins (2007).
- 16.
Selth (2021b).
- 17.
Selth (2021c).
- 18.
Conrad & Bayer (2021).
- 19.
Beech (2021).
- 20.
Potkin & McPherson (2020).
- 21.
Conrad & Bayer (2021).
- 22.
Kyed & Lynn (2021a).
- 23.
Tun (2009).
- 24.
Thu (2020).
- 25.
Kyed & Lynn (2021b).
- 26.
“Life inside the Burma Army: SPDC deserter testimonies” (2008).
- 27.
Kyed & Lynn (2021c).
- 28.
Latt & Win (2016).
- 29.
- 30.
Callahan (2009).
- 31.
Andrew Selth, Myanmar’s Military Mindset, p. 23.
- 32.
Andrew Selth, Myanmar’s Military Mindset, p. 15.
- 33.
Selth (2019).
- 34.
Callahan (1999).
- 35.
McCarthy (2019).
- 36.
Japan's Kirin ends Myanmar (2021).
- 37.
Smith (2021).
- 38.
McCarthy (2019).
- 39.
Walker (2021).
- 40.
Kyed & Lynn (2021).
- 41.
Back to the Stone Age (2021).
- 42.
Nitta (2021).
- 43.
John (2012).
- 44.
Lindstaedt (2021).
- 45.
Kyed & Lynn (2021d).
- 46.
Kyed & Lynn (2021e).
- 47.
Nichols & Lewis (2021).
- 48.
Kyed & Lynn (2021f).
- 49.
Myanmar Military Detains North Western Commander for Planning to Defect: Ethnic Insurgent Sources (2021).
- 50.
Thant & Aung (2021).
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Lee, T., McCarthy, G. (2023). Fracturing the Monolith: Could Military Defections End the Dictatorship in Myanmar?. In: Takeda, M., Yamahata, C. (eds) Myanmar’s Changing Political Landscape. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-9357-2_11
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