Abstract
Drawing on the selectorate theory, institutional explanations of war argue that leaders with larger winning coalitions tend to be more selective about the wars they fight. This argument assumes that the winning coalition is exogenously given and therefore not subject to change. We modify this assumption, arguing that interstate warfare can be a way for leaders to rearrange the winning coalition and thus secure their power. It then follows that threat posed by winning coalitions can give leaders an incentive to wage war abroad. To test this argument, we rely on original panel and dyad datasets on domestic politics and international affairs of major states in China’s Warring States period (476–221 BCE). Our cross-level theory of war, which intertwines domestic and international levels of analysis, receives empirical support from historical inquiries and quantitative analysis. By doing that, we advance, on the one hand, the institutional explanations that address the domestic origins of interstate warfare and, on the other hand, we bring a new perspective to the Qin unification of China.
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Notes
- 1.
- 2.
- 3.
- 4.
Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003).
- 5.
- 6.
- 7.
- 8.
- 9.
- 10.
Gourevitch (1978).
- 11.
Zhao (2004).
- 12.
Waltz (2001).
- 13.
- 14.
Gourevitch (1978).
- 15.
- 16.
- 17.
- 18.
Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003).
- 19.
- 20.
- 21.
- 22.
Carter (2017).
- 23.
Gallagher and Hanson (2015).
- 24.
- 25.
Levy (1989).
- 26.
- 27.
- 28.
Levy and Thompson (2010).
- 29.
- 30.
- 31.
Acemoglu et al. (2008).
- 32.
Sekeris (2011).
- 33.
Zuozhuan (1981), “The Thirteenth Year of Cheng”.
- 34.
Zhanguo Ce (1991), “The Preface”, 1991.
- 35.
Hui (2005).
- 36.
Hui (2005).
- 37.
- 38.
Liu (2019).
- 39.
Xin and Zeng (2010).
- 40.
Qi (2015).
- 41.
Liu (2019).
- 42.
Wang and Qi (2013).
- 43.
Zhao (2004).
- 44.
Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003).
- 45.
Yang (2014).
- 46.
Sikong and Sikou were two of the five most important political positions in the Western Zhou.
- 47.
Zuozhuan (1981), “The Fifth Year of Zhao”.
- 48.
Chunqiu Zuozhuan Zhengyi (1990), “The fifth to sixth year of Zhao”.
- 49.
Shiji (1997), “Biography of the Duke Zhou of Lu”.
- 50.
Shiji (1997), “Taishigong Xu”.
- 51.
Yin (1987).
- 52.
Chen (2009), 247.
- 53.
Zhao (2011).
- 54.
Du (1990).
- 55.
- 56.
Mengzi (1992), “Wanzhang Xia”.
- 57.
Clausewitz and Graham (1990).
- 58.
- 59.
Hanfeizi (1998), “Xian Xue”.
- 60.
Hsu (1965).
- 61.
Li (2000).
- 62.
Zhu (2017).
- 63.
Shiji (1997), “The Biography of Fan Sui and Cai Ze”.
- 64.
Huang (2002).
- 65.
Sunzi Bingfa (2007), “Xingpian”.
- 66.
Shiji (1997), “The Biography of Fan Sui and Cai Ze”.
- 67.
Major powers refer to the seven warring states and the Jin state before being partitioned into three parts.
- 68.
Zhang (2004).
- 69.
Qi (1981).
- 70.
Yang (2016).
- 71.
Tan (1996).
- 72.
Wang and Qi (2013).
- 73.
We must admit that the data on the family background of chancellors during the Warring States period is too insufficient to build a complete panel data set. There are also possible selection biases. However, our data set is sufficient to support this study.
- 74.
This study does not consider the military alliance emerged during this period for two reasons. First, the incentives and the nature of the wars differed significantly for the members in the military alliance and could be affected by multi-level cofounding factors. Second, the contribution of each member in the military alliance is hard to gauge, hence affecting the accuracy of the test results. Thus, we only count the number of wars engaged by the initiators of the alliances.
- 75.
Wei Liaozi (2007), “Zhanwei”.
- 76.
Fan (2003).
- 77.
Zhao (2004).
- 78.
Chen (2021).
- 79.
Beck and Katz (1995).
- 80.
Ghosn et al. (2004).
- 81.
The missing values in the variable “Ruling crises—the reign of the previous duke” were the result of missing historical records for the early dukes of the states of Han and Wei.
The missing values in the variable “Ruling crises—unnatural death of the previous duke” are because of the three dukes/kings resigned before they passed away, including the King Huai of Chu, King Hui of Yan, and King Wuling of Zhao. The missing values for the variable “Power gap—number of counties” are the results of insufficient historical evidence.
- 82.
Zhou and Li (2009).
- 83.
- 84.
Shiji (1997), “House of Prince Xiao of Liang”.
- 85.
Wang (2009).
- 86.
Zhao (2004).
- 87.
Creel (1964).
- 88.
Anderson and Souva (2010).
- 89.
Qi (2015).
- 90.
Wang and Qi (2013).
- 91.
The results of Hausman’ test (not given in the paper) suggest that the panel logistic regression for testing H2a should use a fixed-effects model, but for testing H2b, only a random-effects model is sufficient. To facilitate analysis and presentation, the models listed in the tables in this paper all use random-effects model. Even if the fixed effects model is used, the results still support the hypotheses of this article, which can be obtained from the author.
- 92.
Liu (2019).
- 93.
According to Qi Haixia, these balance-of-power wars included eight wars such as the war to conquer Wei and rescue Zhao and the war against Wei to rescue Han.
- 94.
Zhao (2011).
- 95.
The Qin king’s great-grandson Yin’s prayer to the spirits of the Mount Huatai.
- 96.
Lunyu (1992). “Jishi”.
- 97.
Qi (2015).
- 98.
Wang and Qi (2013).
- 99.
- 100.
- 101.
- 102.
Yan (2009).
- 103.
Li and Qin (2017).
- 104.
Shiji (1997), “The Biography of Fan Sui and Cai Ze”.
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Meng, K., Zeng, J. (2023). “The Great Affairs of the States”: Man, the State and War in the Warring States Period. In: Wang, Z. (eds) The Long East Asia. Governing China in the 21st Century. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-8784-7_5
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