Abstract
The increase in greenhouse gases has triggered substantial changes in the precipitation patterns and extremes both at local as well as global scale. Hence, a great interest has emerged in society for assessing the impacts of climate change under various plausible future scenarios. The north-eastern region of India receives a high amount of rainfall during the monsoon season which brings heavy floods to the region every year. The devastation caused by these annual flood events is of very high magnitude. Therefore, assessment of occurrences of these events in the coming years has become very crucial for proper water resources planning and management. In this study, an attempt is made for assessing the impact of climate change on precipitation extremes in the north-eastern region of India in future from 2006 to 2100. For this purpose, 30-year observed precipitation data (1971–2000) and three Global Climate Models (GCMs)–GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G and GFDL-ESM2M data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the extreme carbon concentration scenario (RCP8.5) has been used. For assessing the extremes, 8 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) have been utilized, viz. mean precipitation (MP), cumulative wet days (CWD), cumulative dry days (CDD), annual maximum 1-day precipitation (AMP1), annual maximum 5-day precipitation (AMP5), precipitation less than 1 mm (P1), precipitation less than 3 mm (P3) and precipitation more than 40 mm (P40). The results have shown significant increase in the case of indices like MP, CWD and AMP1. These changes indicate the possibility of increase in extreme flood events and subsequently points towards future risks associated with them.
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Acknowledgements
The authors are thankful to India Meteorological Department (IMD) for providing necessary data to carry out the present study.
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Hazarika, J., Boro, M. (2023). Impact of Climate Change on Precipitation Extremes in Northeast India Under CMIP5 Models. In: Timbadiya, P.V., Singh, V.P., Sharma, P.J. (eds) Climate Change Impact on Water Resources. HYDRO 2021. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, vol 313. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-8524-9_9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-8524-9_9
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