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Wartime Violence, Risk/Time Preferences, and Post-conflict Sociopolitical Participation: Evidence from Northwestern Pakistan

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Micro-evidence for Peacebuilding Theories and Policies

Part of the book series: Evidence-Based Approaches to Peace and Conflict Studies ((EBAPCS,volume 8))

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Abstract

How do wartime experiences affect victims’ risk and time preferences and their propensities for sociopolitical participation? Although recent studies suggest that civil conflict changes individuals’ preferences for risk and time, there is no consensus on the effects of individuals’ exposure to conflict-related violence on their preferences for risk and time. Furthermore, whether and how such preferences are related to individuals’ sociopolitical participation is unexplored. Focusing on the tribal areas in northwestern Pakistan, this chapter examines the tripartite relationship between individuals’ wartime victimization, preferences for risk and time, and sociopolitical participation in a post-conflict context. Our empirical analyses of novel survey data reveal that although victims of civil conflict do not necessarily have present bias, they display a higher propensity for risk aversion in the post-conflict society. Wartime victimization discourages individuals from belonging to sociopolitical organizations, such as a political party, trade union, religious group, and Jirga. However, the victimization experience appears to partly increase the chance of individuals belonging to these sociopolitical organizations because of its positive effect on risk aversion. In contrast, present bias is negatively related to their social progress in a post-conflict society.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Haushofer and Fehr (2014) discussed the effect of poverty on risk and time preferences through psychological mechanism of stress. The literature has also pointed out at least three other mechanisms that mediate the relationship between natural or human disasters and risk preferences (Cameron and Shah 2015). The first mechanism is about the background risk. This is the risk a victim is potentially aware of but has no control over it. Those with higher background risks tend to behave in a risk averse manner (in an experiment and other settings) to mitigate their overall level of risks even if their risk preference is same as those with lower background risks. The second mechanism is about the update of information. In this mechanism, wartime victimization serves as a “shock” that provides the victims a new piece of information and fosters them to update their beliefs about the risk allocation in their environment. The third mechanism involves the impacts of the victimization on the wealth and income of the victim. A reduction in the wealth of the victim may make her more risk-averse.

  2. 2.

    The literature on post traumatic growth theory in psychology suggests that highly challenging life crises may lead to positive changes in life (Tedeschi and Calhoun 2004), indicating that the fear and stress from wartime victimization may not last forever. Although we admit this possibility, how long it would take for fear and stress to produce positive changes is unclear. Moreover, we are not aware of the study that discusses the relationship between the experience of post traumatic growth on the one hand and the risk and time preferences on the other hand.

  3. 3.

    We excluded two FRs (Lakki Marwat and Tank) from the sampling frame due to their limited exposure to the conflict.

  4. 4.

    In general, interviews are likely to be conducted successfully if young interviewers have territorial connections and kinship with the locals (El Fathaly and Palmer 1980).

  5. 5.

    The question about educational attainment was asked in a multiple-choice format (see the Appendix). The answers were recoded to measure years rather than discrete levels of schooling.

  6. 6.

    In these senses, the relationship between victimization and sociopolitical participation is partially mediated by risk preference (Baron and Kenny 1986). This is applicable to the mediation models that add present bias.

  7. 7.

    Individuals’ risk aversion increases the likelihood that they would participate in Jirga activities by 9.6 percentage points, trade union/association by 5.7 percentage points, religious committee by 3.6 percentage points, and political party by 3.3 percentage points.

  8. 8.

    Individuals’ present bias decreases the likelihood that they would participate in a religious committee by 11.2 percentage points, Jirga by 10.1 percentage points, political party by 9.2 percentage points, and trade union/association by 7.5 percentage points.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank Shohei Doi, Hidayat Ullah Khan, Yuji Uesugi, and Hamza Umer for their comments on earlier versions of this chapter. Financial support from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research, KAKENHI, Grant Numbers: 18H00826) is gratefully acknowledged.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi-shi, Tokyo, 186-8603, Japan

    Takashi Kurosaki

  2. College of Law, Nihon University, 2-3-1 Kanda-Misakicho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 101-8375, Japan

    Yuichi Kubota

  3. Graduate School of Law, Hitotsubashi University, 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi-shi, Tokyo, 186-8601, Japan

    Kazuhiro Obayashi

Authors
  1. Takashi Kurosaki
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  2. Yuichi Kubota
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  3. Kazuhiro Obayashi
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Takashi Kurosaki .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Political Science and Economics, Nihon University, Tokyo, Japan

    Yuichi Kubota

Appendix

Appendix

Survey questions

  • Sociopolitical membership

Q. People sometimes belong to different kinds of groups or fora. The list below contains different types of groups. For each type of group, please tick a box to indicate whether you have participated in the activities of this group in the past 12 months.

(political party, trade union/association, religious committee, and local Jirga)

  1. (a)

    Participated more than twice

  2. (b)

    Participated once or twice

  3. (c)

    Belong to such a group but never participated

  4. (d)

    Don’t belong to such a group

  • Wartime violence

Q. If you consider yourself/your family to be a victim of the armed conflict that started in 2002, what did you/your family suffer and who caused it?

[state actors, non-state political/ armed actors, foreign forces, or don't know]

  1. (a)

    Family member death

  2. (b)

    Personally disappeared/kidnapped/detained

  3. (c)

    Family member disappeared/kidnapped/detained

  4. (d)

    Personally suffering from physical disability

  5. (e)

    Family member suffering from physical disability

  6. (f)

    House damaged or destroyed

  7. (g)

    Primary livelihood damaged or destroyed

  8. (h)

    Personally displaced

  9. (i)

    Family member displaced

  10. (j)

    Personally suffering from a mental illness

  11. (k)

    Family member suffering from a mental illness

  12. (l)

    Personally suffering from a physical illness

  13. (m)

    Family member suffering from a physical illness

  14. (n)

    School damaged

  15. (o)

    Agricultural land/crop/orchards damaged

  16. (p)

    Irrigation channel/tube well damaged

  17. (q)

    Road/power transmission/drinking water supply damaged

  18. (r)

    Personally extorted

  19. (s)

    Family member extorted

  20. (t)

    Family member brainwashed

  21. (u)

    Other

  • Sex

Q. Please indicate your sex

  1. (a)

    Male

  2. (b)

    Female

  • Religiosity

Q. Which religion do you belong to?

  1. (a)

    Muslim (Sunni)

  2. (b)

    Muslim (Shia)

  • Age

Q. What is your age?

  • Schooling

Q. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

  1. (a)

    No formal education

  2. (b)

    Primary school (5th grade)

  3. (c)

    Middle school (8th grade)

  4. (d)

    Secondary school/matric (10th grade)

  5. (e)

    Higher secondary school/intermediate (12th grade)

  6. (f)

    Diploma/certificate course

  7. (g)

    University/graduate school

  • Family size

Q. (For male respondents) How many wives do you have?/(For female respondents) How many co-wives do you have?

Q. Do you have any children?

If yes, how many sons/daughters do you have?

  • Monthly household income

Q. Would you tell us about your household income?

If yes, what is the gross monthly income of your household from all sources (Pakistani rupee)?

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Kurosaki, T., Kubota, Y., Obayashi, K. (2022). Wartime Violence, Risk/Time Preferences, and Post-conflict Sociopolitical Participation: Evidence from Northwestern Pakistan. In: Kubota, Y. (eds) Micro-evidence for Peacebuilding Theories and Policies. Evidence-Based Approaches to Peace and Conflict Studies, vol 8. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-4899-2_4

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