Comparative Analysis of Waiting Delay Estimation Models for Signalized Intersections: A Case Study Tumakuru City

Abstract

Traffic management at intersections is an important area that drawn attention of researchers across the world in recent decades. As a result of research, traffic at intersections is controlled and managed by deploying advanced traffic signal control system (TSCS). Researchers from different parts of the world have proposed various solutions to design TSCS by applying cutting-edge technologies to reduce the waiting delay. In-turn, waiting delay plays an important role in optimizing the traffic signal configuration. But, estimating the waiting delay for an individual vehicle is difficult as vehicle arrival time at intersection cannot be predicted accurately. Even then, researchers across the world have proposed various delay estimation models which are suitable for various traffic conditions like uniform traffic structure, unstructured traffic, oversaturated traffic, under-saturated traffic, etc. But, reliability among most of the models is lacking which is illustrated in this paper. Four different models considered for the study, namely Webster, highway capacity manual (HCM), modified Webster and modified HCM. Two intersections, namely Townhall Circle and Shivakumara Swamiji Circle and from Tumakuru, one of tier-2 cities in Karnataka, India is selected as study area. Comparative analysis of the delay models used in the study is carried out with reference to actual delays observed. In continuation, delay models are also assessed by computing various types of errors. Results revealed that the Webster and modified HCM delay estimation method performed better over other two models. However, all four delay models used in this study are able to produce approximately correct results with 90% accuracy.