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Prediction and Analysis of Water Supply-Demand Balance in Binzhou City

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Proceedings of the 25th International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate (CRIOCM 2020)

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Abstract

Binzhou, Shandong is located in the hinterland of the lower Yellow River Delta with the typical sub-humid warm temperate monsoon climate. The average per capita water resources in Binzhou (265 m3 per person) is considerably lower than the national standards (2100 m3 per person). To study the current situation of water resources utilization and supply pressure in Binzhou city, the grey system prediction model and quota prediction method were used to predict the near and long-term water demand. The results showed that the shortage of water resources in Binzhou would be more serious in the foreseeable future, with an estimated water shortage of 3.91 × 108 m3 in 2025 and 2.90 × 108 m3 in 2035. In the future, agricultural water consumption would still be the largest portion in Binzhou, but its increment would be rather small, and industrial water consumption would increase obviously, compared with 2018, the growth rates in 2025 and 2035 are 109.9% and 192.7%. The demand for domestic water and ecological water would rise due to the development of urbanization. Based on the prediction results of water supply-demand balance, over 3 × 108 m3 shortfall in water supply, Binzhou needs to improve the water supply capacity to meet the water demand of production and living.

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Acknowledgements

This research was funded by the open fund by Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control (KHK1907); the Opening Project of Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3) (Grant No. FDLAP19003); and the Research Fund for Teaching and Research Development of Liberal Arts Teachers in Zhejiang University.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Land Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, People’s Republic of China

    Yuyuan Fu, Sheng Zheng & Yuzhe Wu

  2. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control (AEMPC), Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, People’s Republic of China

    Sheng Zheng

  3. Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP³), Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, People’s Republic of China

    Sheng Zheng

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  1. Yuyuan Fu
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  2. Sheng Zheng
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  3. Yuzhe Wu
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Correspondence to Sheng Zheng .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Central China Normal University, Wuhan, China

    Xinhai Lu

  2. Central China Normal University, Wuhan, China

    Zuo Zhang

  3. University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

    Weisheng Lu

  4. Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, China

    Yi Peng

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Fu, Y., Zheng, S., Wu, Y. (2021). Prediction and Analysis of Water Supply-Demand Balance in Binzhou City. In: Lu, X., Zhang, Z., Lu, W., Peng, Y. (eds) Proceedings of the 25th International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate. CRIOCM 2020. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-3587-8_21

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