Abstract
Soybeans are the main agricultural crop in the southern part of the Russian Far East. Predicting soybean yield at the regional level is an important task that contributes to the planning of acreage and assessment of risks in fulfilling contractual obligations. Methods based on satellite data have recently begun to be used to solve this problem. To assess the soybean yield at the municipal level, a regression model was built, where the maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) value for arable land in the district and the number of days with an average daily temperature of more than 10 °C (D) were used as independent variables. The regression model was built using data from 2010 to 2018 for six municipal districts belonging to four regions of the Russian Federation: the Amur Region, Primorskiy and Khabarovsk Territories, and the Jewish Autonomous Region. It was found that the maximum NDVI of arable land in these areas occurred between the 30th and 33rd calendar weeks (late July–mid-August); the D value varied slightly and ranged from 83 to 90 days. The estimation of the method accuracy showed that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model was in the range 4.8–9.7%; the root mean square error (RMSE) was 0.05–0.15 t/ha. Using the created model, the soybean yield for 2019 was estimated. The forecast error for the three areas not affected by the 2019 flood did not exceed 10.5%. For areas with flood events, error ranged from 11.7 to 22.0%.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Bereza, O., Strashnaya, A., Loupian, E.: On the possibility to predict the yield of winter wheat in the Middle Volga region on the basis of integration of land and satellite data. Sovrem. Probl. Distantsionnogo Zondirovaniya Zemli Kosm. 12, 18–30 (2015). (in Russ.)
Panesh, A., Tzalov, G.: Prediction of winter wheat productivity on the basis of geographic information system services. Bull. Adyghe State Univ. 4, 175–180 (2017). (in Russ.)
Mkhabela, M.S., Bullock, P., Raj, S., Wang, S., Yang, Y.: Crop yield forecasting on the Canadian prairies using MODIS NDVI data. Agric. For. Meteorol. 151, 385–393 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.11.012
Spivak, L., Vitkovskaya, I., Batyrbayeva, M., Kauazov, A.: Analysis of spring wheat yield forecasts based on time series of statistical data and integrated vegetation indices. Sovrem. Probl. Distantsionnogo Zondirovaniya Zemli Kosm. 12(2), 173–182 (2015) (in Russ.)
Iizumi, T., Shin, Y., Kim, W.: Global crop yield forecasting using seasonal climate information from a multi-model ensemble. Clim. Serv. 11, 13–23 (2018)
Balabaykin, V., Elkin, K.: Effects of climate change on grain productivity in Kostanay Region. Agrar. Bull. Urals 11, 54–59 (2014). (in Russ.)
Moriondo, M., Maselli, F., Bindi, M.: A simple model of regional wheat yield based on NDVI data. Eur. J. Agron. 26(3), 266–274 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2006.10.007
Lai, Y., et al.: An empirical model for prediction of wheat yield, using time-integrated Landsat NDVI. Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. 72, 99–108 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2018.07.013
Vorobiova, N., Chernov, A.: Curve fitting of MODIS NDVI time series in the task of early crops identification by satellite images. Procedia Eng. 201, 184–195 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.09.596
Chimitdorzhiev, T., Dmitriev, A., Dagurov, P.: Technology of joint analysis of Sentinel-1 interferometric coherence time series and vegetation index based on Sentinel-2 data for monitoring agricultural fields. Sovrem. Probl. Distantsionnogo Zondirovaniya Zemli Kosm. 17(4), 61–72 (2020) (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.21046/2070-7401-2020-17-4-61-72
Hao, P., Tang, H., Chen, Z., Meng, Q., Kang, Y.: Early-season crop type mapping using 30-m reference time series. J. Integr. Agric. 19(7), 1897–1911 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(19)62812-1
Yaramasu, R., Bandaru, V., Pnvr, K.: Pre-season crop type mapping using deep neural networks. Comput. Electron. Agric. 176, 105664 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2020.105664
Yan, Y., Ryu, Y.: Exploring Google Street View with deep learning for crop type mapping. ISPRS J. Photogramm. Remote Sens. 171, 278–296 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2020.11.022
Bolton, D., Friedl, M.: Forecasting crop yield using remotely sensed vegetation indices and crop phenology metrics. Agric. For. Meteorol. 173, 74–84 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.01.007
Stepanov, A., Aseyeva, T.A., Dubrovin, K.N.: The influence of climatic characteristics and values of NDVI at soybean yield (on the example of the districts of the Primorskiy region). Agrar. Bull. Urals 1, 10–19 (2020) (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.32417/1997-4868-2020-192-1-10-19
Stepanov, A., Dubrovin, K., Sorokin, A., Aseeva, T.: Predicting soybean yield at the regional scale using remote sensing and climatic data. Remote Sens. 12, 1936 (2020). https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12121936
Novorotskii, P.: Climate changes in the Amur River basin in the last 115 years. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 32, 102–109 (2007) (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373907020045
Vermote, E., Vermeulen, A.: Atmospheric correction algorithm: spectral reflectances (MOD09). Atbd Version, pp. 1–107 (1999)
Loupian, E., et al.: Satellite service for vegetation monitoring VEGA. Sovrem. Probl. Distantsionnogo Zondirovaniya Zemli Kosm. 8(1), 190–198 (2011) (in Russ.)
Federal State Statistic Service: https://rosstat.gov.ru. Accessed 29 Jan 2021
VEGA-Science Web-Service: http://sci-vega.ru. Accessed 29 Jan 2021
Proshin, A., Loupian, E., Kashnitskii, A., Balashov, I., Bourtsev, M.: Current capabilities of the “IKI-monitoring” center for collective use. In: CEUR Workshop Proceedings, vol. 2534, pp. 39–44. Berdsk, Russia (2019) (in Russ.)
Sorokin, A., Makogonov, S., Korolev, S.: The information infrastructure for collective scientific work in the Far East of Russia. Sci. Tech. Inf. Process. 4, 302–304 (2017)
Funding
The software used and solutions developed were funded by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR), project number 18-29-03196.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Stepanov, A., Aseeva, T., Dubrovin, K. (2022). Forecasting Soybean Yield in Agricultural Regions of the Russian Far East Using Remote Sensing Data. In: Ronzhin, A., Berns, K., Kostyaev, A. (eds) Agriculture Digitalization and Organic Production . Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies, vol 245. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-3349-2_29
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-3349-2_29
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-16-3348-5
Online ISBN: 978-981-16-3349-2
eBook Packages: Intelligent Technologies and RoboticsIntelligent Technologies and Robotics (R0)