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How Effective Were and Are Lockdowns?

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SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis

Abstract

Efficiency and necessity of lockdown measures implemented on a scale of the whole world, cause much controversy. In this Chapter, we analyse whether total lockdowns are helpful in stopping spread of Coronavirus disease—2019 (COVID-19) and future similar global diseases, by means of investigating herd immunity formation to Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus-2, the viral causative agent of COVID-19 disease (SARS-CoV-2). In the current absence of a vaccine, herd immunity remains the only way to stabilise human population reaction to the novel viral pathogen. We suppose that a real hazard of COVID-19 lockdowns is associated with the common governmental belief that it is the lockdowns that saved humanity from excessive mortality connected with COVID-19. Our research based on SIR compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 spread proves that it is a very dangerous misbelief with far-reaching consequences. It is SARS-CoV-2 relatively low contagiousness and case fatality rate that led to avoidance of millions of deaths, not lockdowns. Non-evidence-based reliance of governments just on total lockdown as a universal measure of the pandemic containment may be much more devastating in the future, in case of possible consecutive waves of SARS-CoV-2 or any other viral pathogen.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    In spite of China had many quarantine zones, at no time Chinese government imposed the full lockdown on a scale of the whole country. Russia has many in common with China, e.g. diverse population density in different regions, large territory, different natural conditions in different provinces. None the less, regretfully Russian government did not follow the Chinese way during the first wave of the pandemic in managing various territorial zones in regard to SARS-CoV-2 spread.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the following persons who helped them to collect statistical data on COVID-19 tests in different countries: Catharijne van de Berg (The Netherlands), Clara Søndergaard (Denmark); Alma Kjær (Denmark); Luise Strøm (Denmark); Marie Kristiansen (Norway); Sille Lassila (Finland); Matilde Da Costa (Portugal); Ines Rodrigues (Portugal); Aðalborg Ragnarsdóttir (Iceland); Agata Sturrisdóttir (Iceland); Kristina Eriksson (Sweden); Hanna Sjöberg (Sweden); Monica Luzzi (Italy); Giuseppe Franchi (Italy); Carlo Mancini (Italy); Lola Sánchez (Spain); Ana Martínez (Spain); Sofia Ramirez (Spain); Daniel von Braun (Switzerland); Alicja Kamiński (Poland); Lady Cecily Grey (UK); Poppy Moore (UK).

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  1. Koltzov Institute of Developmental Biology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 26 Vavilov st, Moscow, 119334, Russia

    Konstantin S. Sharov

  2. Department of Cryoendocrinology, Institute for Problems of Cryobiology and Cryomedicine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Dean of Temple of St. Transfiguration in Kharkov, Ukrainian Orthodox Church, 23 Pereyaslavskaya st., Kharkov, 61016, Ukraine

    Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach

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    Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach

  2. Koltzov Institute of Developmental Biology of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Konstantin S. Sharov

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Sharov, K.S., Legach, F.I. (2021). How Effective Were and Are Lockdowns?. In: Legach, F.a.E.I., Sharov, K.S. (eds) SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_6

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