Vehicle Technology Impact Assessment Model for Indonesia (VEIA-ID): Concept and First Results

Abstract

Energy use and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, key impacts of transport sector activities in Indonesia, need to be accurately estimated, as they influence energy security, Indonesia’s commitment to mitigate climate change, and policy development. The Vehicle Technology Impact Assessment Model for Indonesia (VEIA-ID) has the capacity to create a long-term outlook of transport demand, vehicle stock, energy use, and CO₂ emissions of two transport modes (i.e., cars and road freight vehicles) and to measure the impacts of various transport and energy policies. Using economic and demographic assumptions, it endogenously projects transport demand and is able to split it into different transport modes. It uses existing data to project fleet dynamics, fuel consumption, and CO₂ emissions up to 2050. In the baseline scenario, energy consumption from cars and road freight vehicles would grow 4 times from 33 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2020 to 132 Mtoe in 2050, and CO₂ emissions would rise from 95 million tons to 380 million tons during that same period. Policies such as carbon taxing, motorway tolls, and improvement of road freight logistics have the ability to reduce fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions.

Appendices

Appendix 1: Road Freight Vehicle Types

Fuel	Type	Gross vehicle weight (ton)
Diesel	Double cabin	<5 [diesel] for all CC
Gasoline	Double cabin	<5 [gasoline] for all CC
Diesel	Pick up	<5 [diesel]
Gasoline	Pick up	<5 [gasoline]
Electric	Pick up	<5 [electricity]
Diesel	Truck	5–10 [diesel]
Diesel	Truck	10–24 [diesel]
Diesel	Truck	>24 [diesel]
Gasoline	Truck	10–24 [gasoline]
CNG	Truck	>24 [CNG]
Electric	Truck	5–10 [electricity]
LNG	Truck	5–10 [LNG]
Hydrogen	Truck	5–10 [LNG]

1. CC engine size in cubic centimetres, CNG compressed natural gas, LNG liquified natural gas

Appendix 2: Car types

Fuel type	Vehicle type	Gross vehicle weight
Diesel	4 × 2	CC ≤ 1.500 [diesel]
Diesel	4 × 2	CC 1.501–2.500 [diesel]
Diesel	4 × 2	CC > 2.501 [diesel]
Gasoline	4 × 2	CC ≤ 1.500 [gasoline]
Gasoline	4 × 2	CC 1.501–3.000 [gasoline]
Gasoline	4 × 2	CC > 3.001 [gasoline]
Diesel	4 × 4	CC ≤ 1.500 [diesel]
Diesel	4 × 4	CC 1.501–2.500 [diesel]
Diesel	4 × 4	CC > 2.501 [diesel]
Gasoline	4 × 4	CC ≤ 1.500 [gasoline]
Gasoline	4 × 4	CC 1.501–3.000 [gasoline]
Gasoline	4 × 4	CC > 3.001 [gasoline]
Diesel	Sedan	CC ≤ 1.500 [diesel]
Diesel	Sedan	CC 1.501–2.500 [diesel]
Diesel	Sedan	CC > 2.501 [diesel]
Gasoline	Sedan	CC ≤ 1.500 [gasoline]
Gasoline	Sedan	CC 1.501–3.000 [gasoline]
Gasoline	Sedan	CC > 3.001 [gasoline]
Gasoline	Affordable, energy-saving	CC ≤ 1.200 [gasoline]
Electric	BEV	CC ≤ 1.500 [electricity]
Electric	PHEV	CC ≤ 1.500 [electricity]
Electric	HEV	CC ≤ 1.500 [electricity]
Hydrogen	FCV	CC ≤ 1.500 [electricity]
Diesel	Flexy	CC 1.501–2.500 [diesel]
Gasoline	Flexy	CC 1.501–3.000 [gasoline]
CNG	Flexy	CC 1.501–3.000 [CNG]

1. CC engine size in cubic centimetres, CNG compressed natural gas