Abstract
We investigate the development of stationary energy policy for the national and sub-national ecological footprint. Three carbon emission mitigation scenarios relating to the electricity sector (two different fuel mix scenarios and the rate of technological uptake) are explored. We find that the effectiveness of sub-national policy varies with global uncertainty. To be robust, policy to reduce carbon emissions from the stationary energy sector must be successful irrespective of which future eventuates and/or must be highly adaptable and responsive to different futures. We investigate the impact of emission reduction policy on other parts of the ecological footprint—energy land. Many low carbon energy production methods require large areas of land, and this exacerbates current land use competition, particularly with respect to agricultural land. We find that holistic policy development will need to identify land uses which can operate synergistically with land required for renewable energy to mitigate ecological footprint expansion as renewable energy increases. Our case study using Australia and four of its states provides a framework applicable elsewhere in the world to increase the resilience of the energy sector and agriculture.
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Notes
- 1.
The A2 storyline describes a very heterogeneous world. Population growth is high. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and medium-low. Technological change is more fragmented and slower than in other storylines.
The B1 storyline describes a convergent world with a medium-high global population. It has rapid changes in economic structures and medium income growth. There is a globally coordinated emphasis which is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability.
The B2 storyline describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. Global population size is low and income growth is medium. Technology growth is less rapid.
Abbreviations
- IPCC:
-
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- CO2:
-
Carbon dioxide
- SRES:
-
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
- STIRPAT:
-
Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology
- IPAT:
-
Impact, Population, Affluence and Technology
- OLS:
-
Ordinary least squares
- IEA:
-
International Energy Agency
- GDP:
-
Gross domestic product
- ABARE:
-
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics
- MT:
-
Megaton
- KWh:
-
Kilowatt-hour
- CSP:
-
Concentrated solar power
- CCS:
-
Carbon capture and storage
- Ha:
-
Hectare
- GWh:
-
Gigawatt-hour
- NG:
-
Natural gas
- Geoth:
-
Geothermal
- Bioms:
-
Biomass
- PV:
-
Photovoltaic
- Qld:
-
Queensland
- WA:
-
Western Australia
- SA:
-
South Australia
- VIC:
-
Victoria
- CO2-e:
-
Carbon dioxide equivalent
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Acknowledgements
We thank our research partners the Global Footprint Network, Forestry Corporation of NSW and the State of Environment Reporting units for the NSW, Victorian, Queensland, Tasmanian, South Australian and Western Australian state governments. We thank Olivier Rey Lescure for his invaluable assistance with GIS.
Funding
This work was supported by an Australian Research Council Linkage Grant [grant number: LP0669290].
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McBain, B., Lenzen, M., Albrecht, G., Wackernagel, M. (2021). Future Transitions to a Renewable Stationary Energy Sector: Implications of the Future Ecological Footprint and Land Use. In: Banerjee, A., Meena, R.S., Jhariya, M.K., Yadav, D.K. (eds) Agroecological Footprints Management for Sustainable Food System. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-9496-0_5
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