Skip to main content

Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting: A Survey

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Computational Intelligence in Data Mining

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 990))

Abstract

Over the past 25 years, fuzzy time series forecasting (TSF) methods have remained a keen area of interest among the forecasters of different domains. A number of fuzzy TSF methods have been developed and applied in a wide variety of applications. This paper reviews related research papers from the period between 1993 and 2017 with a focus on the development of state of the art. The related studies are compared based on factor and order of model, length of the interval, fuzzy logical relationship (FLR), defuzzification technique, and other experimental factors. This paper also outlines the current achievements, limitations, and suggestions for future research associated with the fuzzy time series forecasting.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 189.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 249.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Song, Q., Chissom, B.S.: Forecasting Enrollments with fuzzy time series – Part I. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 54, 1–9 (1993)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Song, Q., Chissom, B.S.: Fuzzy time series and its model. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 54, 269–277 (1993)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  3. Zadeh, L.A.: Fuzzy Sets. Inf. Control 8, 338–353 (1965)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  4. Song, Q., Chissom, B.S.: Forecasting Enrollments with fuzzy time series – Part II. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 62, 1–8 (1994)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Chen, S.-M.: Forecasting Enrollments with fuzzy time series. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 81, 311–319 (1996)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Hwang, J.-R., Chen, S.-M., Lee, C.-H.: Handling forecasting problems using fuzzy time series. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 100, 217–228 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Huarng, K.: Effective lengths of intervals to improve forecasting in fuzzy time series. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 123, 387–394 (2001)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  8. Huarng, K.: Heuristic models of fuzzy time series for forecasting. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 123, 369–386 (2001)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  9. Chen, S.M.: Forecasting enrollments based on high order fuzzy time series. Cybern. Syst. 33, 1–16 (2002)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  10. Tsaur, R.-C., Yang, J.-C.O., Wang, H.-F.: Fuzzy relation analysis in fuzzy time series models. Comput. Math Appl. 49, 539–548 (2005)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  11. Huarng, K., Yu, T.H-K.: Ratio-based lengths of intervals to improve fuzzy time series forecasting. IEEE Trans. Syst., Man, Cybernetics—Part B: Cybern. 36(2), 328–340 (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Lee, C.-H.L., Liu, A., Chen, W.-S.: Pattern discovery of fuzzy time series for financial prediction. IEEE Trans. Knowl. Data Eng. 18(5), 613–625 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Li, S.-T., Cheng, Y.-C.: Deterministic fuzzy time series model for forecasting enrollments. Comput. Math Appl. 53, 1904–1920 (2007)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  14. Cheng, C.H., Chen, T.L., Teoh, H.J., Chiang, C.H.: Fuzzy time-series based on adaptive expectation model for TAIEX forecasting. Expert Syst. Appl. 34, 1126–1132 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Singh, S.R.: A computational method of forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Math. Comput. Simul. 79, 539–554 (2008)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  16. Aladag, C.H., Basaran, M.A., Egrioglu, E., Yolcu, U., Uslu, V.R.: Forecasting in high order fuzzy times series by using neural networks to define fuzzy relations. Expert Syst. Appl. 36, 4228–4423 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Kuo, I.-H., Horng, S.J., Kao, T.-W., Lin, T.-L., Lee, C.-L., Pan, Y.: An improved method for forecasting enrollments based on fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization. Expert Syst. Appl. 36, 6108–6117 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Yolcu, U., Egrioglu, E., Uslu, V.R., Basaran, M.A., Aladag, C.H.: A new approach for determining the length of intervals for fuzzy time series. Appl. Soft Comput. 9, 647–651 (2009)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  19. Park, J-Il., Lee, D-J., Song, C-K., Chun, M-G.: TAIFEX and KOSPI 200 forecasting based on two-factors high-order fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization. Expert. Syst. Appl. 37, 959–967 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Aladag, C.H., Yolcu, U., Egrioglu, E.: A high order fuzzy time series forecasting model based on adaptive expectation and artificial neural networks. Math. Comput. Simul. 81, 875–882 (2010)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  21. Egrioglu, E., Aladag, C.H., Yolcu, U., Uslu, V.R., Basaran, M.A.: Finding an optimal interval length in high order fuzzy time series. Expert Syst. Appl. 37, 5052–5055 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Huang, Y.-L., Horng, S.-J., He, M., Fan, P., Kao, T.-W., Khan, M.K., Lai, J.-L., Kuo, I.-H.: A hybrid forecasting model for enrollments based on aggregated fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization. Expert Syst. Appl. 38, 8014–8023 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Qiu, W., Liu, X., Li, H.: A generalized method for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Expert Syst. Appl. 38, 10446–10453 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Egrioglu, E., Aladag, C.H., Basaran, M.A., Yolcu, U., Uslu, V.R.: A new approach based on the optimization of the length of intervals in fuzzy time series. J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst. 22, 15–19 (2011)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  25. Gangwar, S.S., Kumar, S.: Partitions based computational method for high-order fuzzy time series forecasting. Expert Syst. Appl. 39, 12158–12164 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Aladag, C.H., Yolcu, U., Erol, E., Dalar, A.Z.: A new time invariant fuzzy time series forecasting method based on particle swarm optimization. Appl. Soft Comput. 12, 3291–3299 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Egrioglu, E., Aladag, C.H., Yolcu, U.: Fuzzy time series forecasting with a novel hybrid approach combining fuzzy c-means and neural networks. Expert Syst. Appl. 40, 854–857 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Singh, P., Borah, B.: An efficient time series forecasting model based on fuzzy time series. Eng. Appl. Artif. Intell. 26, 2443–2457 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Wang, L., Liu, X., Pedrycz, W.: Effective intervals determined by information granules to improve forecasting in fuzzy time series. Expert Syst. Appl. 40, 5673–5679 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Chen, M.-Y.: A high-order fuzzy time series forecasting model for internet stock trading. Futur. Gener. Comput. Syst. 37, 461–467 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Lu, W., Pedrycz, W., Liu, X., Yang, J., Li, P.: The modeling of time series based on fuzzy information granules. Expert Syst. Appl. 41, 3799–3808 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Wang, L., Liu, X., Pedrycz, W., Shao, Y.: Determination of temporal information granules to improve forecasting in fuzzy time series. Expert Syst. Appl. 41, 3134–3142 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Uslu, V.R., Bas, E., Yolcu, U., Egrioglu, E.: A fuzzy time series approach based on weights determined by the number of recurrences of fuzzy relations. Swarm and Evolutionary Computation 15, 19–26 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Lu, W., Chen, X., Pedrycz, W., Liu, X., Yang, J.: Using interval information granules to improve forecasting in fuzzy time series. Int. J. Approx. Reason. 57, 1–18 (2015)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  35. Yolcu, O.C., Yolcu, U., Egrioglu, E., Aladag, C.H.: High order fuzzy time series forecasting method based on an intersection operation. Appl. Math. Model. 40, 8750–8765 (2016)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  36. Bisht, K., Kumar, S.: Fuzzy time series forecasting method based on hesitant fuzzy sets. Expert Syst. Appl. 64, 557–568 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Jiang, P., Dong, Q., Li, P., Lian, L.: A novel high-order weighted fuzzy time series model and its application in nonlinear time series prediction. Appl. Soft Comput. 55, 44–62 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Lee, L.-W., Wang, L.-H., Chen, S.-M., Leu, Y.-H.: Handling forecasting problems based on two-factors high-order fuzzy time series. IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst. 14(3), 468–477 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Teoh, H.J., Cheng, C.H., Chu, H.H., Chen, J.-S.: Fuzzy time series model based on probabilistic approach and rough set rule induction for empirical research in stock markets. Data Knowl. Eng. 67, 103–117 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Khashei, M., Hejazi, S.R., Bijari, M.: A new hybrid artificial neural networks and fuzzy regression model for time series forecasting. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 159, 769–786 (2008)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  41. Chu, H.-H., Chen, T.-L., Cheng, C.H., Huang, C.C.: Fuzzy dual-factor time-series for stock index forecasting. Expert Syst. Appl. 36, 165–171 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Teoh, H.J., Chen, T.-L., Cheng, C.H., Chu, H.-H.: A hybrid multi-order fuzzy time series for forecasting stock markets. Expert Syst. Appl. 36, 7888–7897 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Li, S.-T., Kuo, S.-C., Cheng, Y.-C., Chen, C.-C.: Deterministic vector long-term forecasting for fuzzy time series. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 161, 1852–1870 (2010)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  44. Kuo, I.-H., Horng, S.-J., Chen, Y.-H., Run, R.-S., Kao, T.-W., Chen, R.-J., Lai, J.-L., Lin, T.-L.: Forecasting TAIFEX based on fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization. Expert Syst. Appl. 37, 1494–1502 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Yu, T.H-K., Huarng, K-H.: A neural network-based fuzzy time series model to improve forecasting. Expert. Syst. Appl. 37, 3366–3372 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Bahrepour, M., A-T., M-R., Yaghoobi, M., N-S., M-B.: An adaptive ordered fuzzy time series with application to FOREX. Expert. Syst. Appl. 38, 475–485 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Chen, S.-M., Chen, C.-D.: Handling forecasting problems based on high-order fuzzy logical relationships. Expert Syst. Appl. 38, 3857–3864 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Bajestani, N.S., Zare, A.: Forecasting TAIEX using improved type 2 fuzzy time series. Expert Syst. Appl. 38, 5816–5821 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Chen, S.-M., Tanuwijaya, K.: Multivariate fuzzy forecasting based on fuzzy time series and automatic clustering techniques. Expert Syst. Appl. 38, 10594–10605 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Chen, S.-M., Tanuwijaya, K.: Fuzzy forecasting based on high-order fuzzy logical relationships and automatic clustering techniques. Expert Syst. Appl. 38, 15425–15437 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Lee, L.W., Wang, L.H., Chen, S.M.: Temperature prediction and TAIFEX forecasting based on fuzzy logical relationships and genetic algorithms. Expert Syst. Appl. 33, 539–550 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Lee, L.W., Wang, L.H., Chen, S.M.: Temperature prediction and TAIFEX forecasting based on high-order fuzzy logical relationships and genetic simulated annealing techniques. Expert Syst. Appl. 34, 328–336 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. Chen, S.-M., Kao, P.-Y.: TAIEX forecasting based on fuzzy time series, particle swarm optimization techniques and support vector machines. Inf. Sci. 247, 62–71 (2013)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  54. Aladag, C.H.: Using multiplicative neuron model to establish fuzzy logic relationships. Expert Syst. Appl. 40, 850–853 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. Singh, P., Borah, B.: Forecasting stock index price based on M factors fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization. Int. J. Approximate Reasoning 55, 812–833 (2014)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  56. Aladag, C.H., Yolcu, U., Egrioglu, E., Bas, E.: Fuzzy lagged variable selection in fuzzy time series with genetic algorithms. Appl. Soft Comput. 22, 465–473 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Chen, M.-Y., Chen, B.-T.: A hybrid fuzzy time series model based on granular computing for stock price forecasting. Inf. Sci. 294, 227–241 (2015)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  58. Sun, B.Q., Guo, H., Karimi, H.R., Ge, Y., Xiong, S.: Prediction of stock index futures prices based on fuzzy sets and multivariate fuzzy time series. Neurocomputing 151, 1528–1536 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  59. Cai, Q., Zhang, D., Zheng, W., Leung, S.C.H.: A new fuzzy time series forecasting model combined with ant colony optimization and auto-regression. Knowl.-Based Syst. 74, 61–68 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  60. Askari, S., Montazerin, N.: A high-order multi-variable Fuzzy Time Series forecasting algorithm based on fuzzy clustering. Expert Syst. Appl. 42, 2121–2135 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  61. Ye, F., Zhang, D., Fujita, H., Gong, Z.: A novel forecasting method based on multi-order fuzzy time series and technical analysis. Inf. Sci. 367–368, 41–57 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  62. Cheng, S.-H., Chen, S.-M., Jian, W.S.: Fuzzy time series forecasting based on fuzzy logical relationships and similarity measures. Inf. Sci. 327, 272–287 (2016)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  63. Deng, W., Wang, G., Zhang, X., Xu, J., Li, G.: A multi-granularity combined prediction model based on fuzzy trend forecasting and particle swarm techniques. Neurocomputing 173, 1671–1682 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  64. Kocak, C.: ARMA(p, q) type high order fuzzy time series forecast method based on fuzzy logic relations. Appl. Soft Comput. 58, 92–103 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  65. Zhang, W., Zhang, S., Zhang, S., Yu, D., Huang, N.N.: A multi-factor and high-order stock forecast model based on Type-2 FTS using cuckoo search and self-adaptive harmony search. Neurocomputing 240, 13–24 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  66. Yolcu, O.C., Lam, H.-K.: A combined robust fuzzy time series method for prediction of time series. Neurocomputing 247, 87–101 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  67. Chen, S.-M., Phuong, B.D.H.: Fuzzy time series forecasting based on optimal partitions of intervals and optimal weighting vectors. Knowl.-Based Syst. 118, 204–216 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  68. Carvalho Jr., J.G., Costa Jr., C.T.: Identification method for fuzzy forecasting models of time series. Appl. Soft Comput. 50, 166–182 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  69. Li, S.T., Cheng, Y.-C., Lin, S.-Y.: A FCM-based deterministic forecasting model for fuzzy time series. Comput. Math Appl. 56, 3052–3063 (2008)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  70. Enayatifar, R., Sadaei, H.J., Abdullah, A.H., Gani, A.: Imperialist competitive algorithm combined with refined high-order weighted fuzzy time series (RHWFTS–ICA) for short term load forecasting. Energy Convers. Manag. 76, 1104–1116 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  71. Efendi, R., Ismail, Z., Deris, M.M.: A new linguistic out-sample approach of fuzzy time series for daily forecasting of Malaysian electricity load demand. Appl. Soft Comput. 28, 422–430 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  72. Egrioglu, E., Aladag, C.H., Yolcu, U., Uslu, V.R., Basaran, M.A.: A new approach based on artificial neural networks for high order multivariate fuzzy time series. Expert Syst. Appl. 36, 10589–10594 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  73. Tsaur, R.-C., Kuo, T.-C.: The adaptive fuzzy time series model with an application to Taiwan’s tourism demand. Expert Syst. Appl. 38, 9164–9171 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  74. Avazbeigi, M., Doulabi, S.H.H., Karimi, B.: Choosing the appropriate order in fuzzy time series: A new N-factor fuzzy time series for prediction of the auto industry production. Expert Syst. Appl. 37, 5630–5639 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  75. Cheng, C.H., Wang, J.W., Li, C.H.: Forecasting the number of outpatient visits using a new fuzzy time series based on weighted-transitional matrix. Expert Syst. Appl. 34, 2568–2575 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  76. Garg, B., Garg, R.: Enhanced accuracy of fuzzy time series model using ordered weighted aggregation. Appl. Soft Comput. 48, 265–280 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  77. Cheng, C.-H., Chen, Y.-S., Wu, Y.-L.: Forecasting innovation diffusion of products using trend-weighted fuzzy time-series model. Expert Syst. Appl. 36, 1826–1832 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  78. Wong, H.-L., Tu, Y.-H., Wang, C.-C.: Application of fuzzy time series models for forecasting the amount of Taiwan export. Expert Syst. Appl. 37, 1465–1470 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  79. Wang, C.-C.: A comparison study between fuzzy time series model and ARIMA model for forecasting Taiwan export. Expert Syst. Appl. 38, 9296–9304 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  80. Song, Q., Chissom, B.S., Leland, R.P.: Fuzzy stochastic fuzzy time series and its models. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 88, 333–341 (1997)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  81. Tran, H.D., Muttil, N., Perera, B.J.C.: Selection of significant input variables for time series forecasting. Environ. Model Softw. 64, 156–163 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  82. Lngkvist, M., Karlsson, L., Loutfi, A.: A review of unsupervised feature learning and deep learning for time series modeling. Pattern Recogn. Lett. 42, 11–24 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sibarama Panigrahi .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2020 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Panigrahi, S., Behera, H.S. (2020). Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting: A Survey. In: Behera, H., Nayak, J., Naik, B., Pelusi, D. (eds) Computational Intelligence in Data Mining. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 990. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-8676-3_54

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics