Abstract
Just as the Cold War ended leaving too many loose ends, a neo-liberal trading order opened windows that a globally oriented China and a locally immersed India were set to fully utilize. What looked like a predestined rendezvous of two previous world leaders, China and India, found China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI) and India’s Look/Act East strategic policy frameworks set on a collision course across South (and Southeast) Asia. This chapter takes stock of China’s external compacts in this region, and finds India, encircled by those agreements, desperately girdling globally to break that isolation. Among other findings: local, state, and non-state actors locked horns across a fettered and unstable South Asia whose ramifications also spin out globally, as if beckoning China and India deeper into their power rivalry.
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Notes
- 1.
Joe Ngai, Kevin Sneader, and Cecilia Ma Zecha, “China’s One Belt One Road: Will it reshape world trade?” McKinsey Podcast, July 2016, from https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/china/chinas-one-belt-one-road-will-it-reshape-global-trade, last consulted July August 22, 2018.
- 2.
Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict 1500 to 2000 (New York, NY: Vintage Books, 1987); and John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York, NY: W.W. Norton, 2001); among others.
- 3.
Imtiaz A. Hussain, “The Shanghai framework: Chop-suey governance?” Security Governance of Regional Organizations, eds., Emil J. Kirchner & Roberto Dominguez (London: Routledge, 2011), ch. 10.
- 4.
Maninder Das, “Here’s all you should know to know about ‘Strings of Pearl’, China’s policy to encircle India,” India Times, June 23, 2017, from: https://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/here-is-all-you-should-know-about-string-of-pearls-china-s-policy-to-encircle-india-324315.html, last consulted August 22, 2018; Caitlin Dewey, “Map: more than half of humanity lives within this circle,” Washington Post, May 7, 2013, from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/05/07/map-more-than-half-of-humanity-lives-within-this-circle/?utm_term=.31892be0c033, last consulted August 22, 2015; and Panos Mourdorkoutas, “China tries to encircle India: It won’t work,” Forbes, May 4, 2017, from: https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2017/05/04/china-tries-to-enircle-india-it-wont-work/#3583f06922be, last consulted August 22, 2018.
- 5.
Salman Rafi, “CPEC could be and expensive albatross around Pakistani necks,” Asia Times, July 31, 2017, from: http://www.atimes.com/article/cpec-expensive-albatross-around-pakis… (last consulted August 2, 2017).
- 6.
Wade Shepard, “China tells Sri Lanka: We want our money, not your empty airport,” Forbes, July 31, 2016, from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/07/31/china-to-sri-l… (last consulted July 31, 2017). Also see Manish Sharma, “Sri Lanka, the first Asian country to become the victim of China’s debt trap,” July 27, 2017, from: http://postcard.news/sri-lanka-first-asian-country-become-victim-chin… (last consulted July 31, 2017).
- 7.
On the 1.6 billion USD Padma Bridge, see “Padma Bridge project is awarded to a Chinese firm,” The Economist, May 30, 2014, from: http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=541862638 (last consulted October 2, 2017). Among those other projects, see Asif Showkat Kallol, “China to give $700 m for six development projects,” Dhaka Tribune, July 25, 2017, from: http://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/development/2017/07/25/china-give-700m-six-development-projects/
- 8.
Ramesh Bhushal, “One belt, one road fuels Nepal’s dreams,” The Wire, July 11, 2017, from: https://thewire.in/156554/nepal-china-obor-transport-infrastructure/ (last consulted October 2, 2017).
- 9.
Michael Auslin, “Can the Doklam dispute be resolved? The danger of China and India’s standoff,” Foreign Affairs, August 1, 2017, from: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2017-08-01/cam-doklam-dispute-be-resolved (last consulted August 8, 2017); and Soutik Biswas, “Why is the India-China border stand-off escalating?” BBC News, July 20, 2017, from: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-40653053 (last consulted July 22, 2017).
- 10.
Eleanor Ross, “How and why China is building islands in the South China Sea,” Newsweek, March 29, 2017, from: https://www.newsweek.com/china-south-china-sea-islands-build-military-territory-expand-575161, last consulted August 22, 2018; and Derek Watkins, “What China has been building in the South China Sea,” New York Times, October 27, 2017, from: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/30/world/asia/what-china-has-been-building-in-the-south-china-sea.html, last consulted August 22, 2018.
- 11.
Hussain, “Shanghai framework.”
- 12.
See “China balance of trade, 1981–2018,” from: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/balance-of-trade, first consulted August 22, 2018; and David Scutt, “China’s trade surplus just narrowed—but not with the US,” Business Insider, June 8, 2018, from: https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-trade-surplus-just-narrowed-but-not-with-the-us-2018-6, last consulted August 22, 2018.
- 13.
There was a 347 billion USD trade deficit against China in 2016. See Kimberly Amadeo, “Why is America’s trade deficit with China so high? The real reason American jobs are going to China,” The Balance, August 15, 2017, from: http://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-and-solutions-3306277 (last consulted October 2, 2017). Just in this century, U.S. foreign direct investment in China spiraled up from 11.14 billion USD in 2000 to 92.42 billion. See “Direct investment position of the United States in China from 2000 to 2016 (in billion U.S. dollars, on a historical-cost basis),” Statista 2017, from: http://www.statista.com/statistics/188629/united-states-direct-investment-in-china-since-2000/ (last consulted October 2, 2017).
- 14.
Pepe Escobar, “China and India torn between silk roads and cocked guns,” Asia Times, July 25, 2017, from: http://www.atimes.com/article/china-india-torn-silk-roads-cocked-guns? (last consulted July 25, 2017).
- 15.
Shruti Godpole, “Wuhan Summit: An important signal of intent by India and China,” Up Front, A Brookings Institution newsletter, May 23, 2018, from: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/05/23/wuhan-summit-an-important-signal-of-intent-by-india-and-china/, last consulted August 22, 2018.
- 16.
Bertil Linter, “Hidden agenda behind China-India Himalayan showdown,” Asia Times August 21, 2017, from: http://www.atimes.com/article/hidden-agenda-behind-china-india-himalayan-showdown// (last consulted October 3, 2017).
- 17.
“Over 500 institutes founded in 142 countries, regions,” China Daily, October 7, 2017, from: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2017-10/07/content_32950016.htm, last consulted December 10, 2018.
- 18.
See Mannan’s chapter.
- 19.
Shubir Bhaumik, “Why do China, India back the Myanmar government over the Rohingya?” South China Morning News, October 8, 2017, from: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2115839/why-do-china-india-back-myanmar-over-rohingya-crisis, last consulted August 22, 2018.
- 20.
Lucian M. Ashworth, “Realism and the spirit of 1919: Halford J. Mackinder, geopolitics and the reality of the League of Nations,” European Journal of International History 17, no. 2 (2011): 279–301; and Torbjorn L. Knuttsen, “Halford J. Mackinder, geopolitics, and the heartland thesis,” Journal of the International History Review 36, no. 5 (2014): 835–57.
- 21.
See his 2-part “India’s regional integration plans all hinge on Bangladesh,” May 11, 2017, from: http://regionalrapport.com/2017/05/11/indias-regional-integration-plans-hinge-bangladesh/, last retrieved May 13, 2017.
- 22.
Fiona MacGregor, “Aung San Suu Kyi’s reputation marred by Rohingya refugees,” NBC News, September 4, 2017, from: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/aung-san-suu-kyi-s-reputation-marred-myanmar-s-rohingya-n798541, last consulted August 22, 2018.
- 23.
Jayanth Jacob, “PM Narendra Modi reaches Myanmar: Five reasons why his visit is important,” The Hindustan Times, September 5, 2017, from: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/five-reasons-why-narendra-modi-s-visit-to-myanmar-is-important/story-nRB2ljRqwvdcMcUtkdeHsK.html, last consulted August 22, 2018.
- 24.
Ahmed Rashid, “The stakes are high for China in Pakistan and Afghanistan,” The Financial Express, July 22, 2017, 1, a Bangladesh daily.
- 25.
See a worst-case China-India naval war logistical assessment by James Holmes, “Who will win the great China-India naval war of 2020?” Foreign Policy, August 7, 2017, from: http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/07/who-will-win-the-sino-indian-naval-war-of-2020/ (last consulted August 8, 2017).
- 26.
Daniel Stacey, and Alastair Gale, “China races ahead in Indian Ocean while India and Japan take baby steps,” The Wall Street Journal, July 23, 2017, from: http://www.wsj.com/articles/countering-china-in-indian-ocean-prove. . . (last consulted on July 29, 2017).
- 27.
Maria Abi Habia, “How China got Sri Lanka to cough up a port,” New York Times, June 25, 2018, from: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html, last consulted August 25, 2018.
- 28.
Auslin, op. cit.
- 29.
Hussain, “Wuhan woos: China & India rewriting future history,” The Daily Star, May 5, 2018, 7, Bangladesh daily.
- 30.
Nick Bisley, “China-India border dispute a grim sign for stability in Asia,” The Conversation, July 27, 2017, from: http://theconversation.com/china-india-border-dispute-a-grim-sign-for… (last consulted July 28, 2017).
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Hussain, I. (2019). Encircling India: China Tightens South Asian Noose. In: Hussain, I. (eds) South Asia in Global Power Rivalry. Global Political Transitions. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7240-7_5
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