Abstract
Rapid industrialisation and urbanisation are expected to continue in China. Energy efficiency improvement (EEI), namely reducing the national energy intensity, is a very important energy conservation and carbon emission reduction index for China. China has adopted measures to improve energy efficiency and achieve the objectives of the 11th Five Year Plan. (The central government of China planned to reduce the GDP-based energy intensity of China by 20 % in 2006–10.) In 2005, an input-output structural decomposition analysis showed a decline in energy savings and emission reductions (ESER) in the energy sector of 33 and 34 % respectively, in the total production-related energy consumption and carbon emissions. Further, by using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for China, my research team and I analysed the potential effect of EEI on ESER over the period of 2013 to 2030. Based on the decrease in energy intensity from 2010 to 2030, we considered three scenarios: baseline (decrease by 9 %); moderate (decrease by 44 %); and ambitious (decrease by 68 %). Compared to the baseline scenario, EEI in the moderate scenario will gain 36.1 billion tons of coal equivalent standard (BTce) of energy savings and 21.0 billion tons of carbon equivalent (BTC) carbon emission reductions for China. The ambitious scenario will result in 48.4 BTce of energy savings and 28.2 BTC of carbon emission reductions for China. More than half of the ESER are from electricity and heat production and distribution sectors.
Dr. Youguo Zhang, Associate Professor, Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Email: zhyouguo@cass.org.cn.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
See, for an example, The Special Medium-Long Item Program of Energy-saving issued by the State Development and Reform Commission of China.
- 2.
References
Ang, B.W. (2004) “Decomposition Analysis for Policymaking in Energy: Which is the Preferred Method?”. Energy Policy 32: 1131–9.
Anson, S. and K. Turner (2009) “Rebound and Disinvestment Effects in Refined Oil Consumption and Supply Resulting from an Increase in Energy Efficiency in the Scottish Commercial Transport Sector”. Energy Policy 37: 3608–20.
Betts, J.R. (1989) “Two Exact, Non-Arbitrary and General Methods of Decomposing Temporal Change”. Economic Letter 30: 151–6.
Dai H., T. Masui, Y. Matsuoka and S. Fujimori (2011) “Assessment of China’s Climate Commitment and Non-Fossil Energy Plan towards 2020 Using Hybrid AIM/CGE Model”. Energy Policy 39: 2875–87.
EIA (2013) Annual Energy Outlook 2013. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/.
Fujimagari, D. (1989) “The Sources of Change in the Canadian Industry Output”. Economic Systems Research 1: 187–202.
Hanley, N.D., P.G. McGregor, J.K. Swales, and K. Turner (2009) “Do Increases in Energy Efficiency Improve Environmental Quality and Sustainability?”. Ecological Economics 68: 692–709.
Li, P., S. Hsu, C. Huang and H. Lin (2003) “Baseline Forecasting for Greenhouse Gas Reductions in Taiwan: A Dynamic CGE Analysis”. In Global Warming and the Asian Pacific, ed. C.C. Chang, R. Mendelson and D.G. Shaw. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, pp. 35–59.
Li, Y. and W. Lu (2011) “The Economy-Wide Rebound Effects of Energy Efficiency Increase in Production”. China Population Resources and Environment 21, 11: 44–9. (in Chinese)
Liang, Q., Y. Fan and Y. Wei (2009) “The Effect of Energy End-Use Efficiency Improvement on China’s Energy Use and CO2 Emissions: A CGE Model-Based Analysis”. Energy Efficiency 2, 3: 243–62.
Liu, L-C., Y. Fan, G. Wu and Y-M. Wei (2007) “Using LMDI Method to Analyze the Change Of China’s Industrial CO2 Emissions from Final Fuel Use: An Empirical Analysis”. Energy Policy 35: 5892–900.
Lu, Y., A. Stegman and Y. Cai (2013) “Emissions Intensity Targeting: From China’s 12th Five Year Plan to Its Copenhagen Commitment”. Energy Policy 61: 1164–77.
Qi, M. (2010) “Labor Supply and Labor Demand Forecasting in China, 2010–2050”. Population Research 34, 9: 76–87. (in Chinese)
Research Group of the Energy Development Strategy of China in the Mid and Long-Term (2011) Research on the Energy Development Strategy of China in the Mid and Long-Term (2030, 2050). Beijing: Science Publishing Press. (in Chinese)
Su, B. and B.W. Ang (2012) “Structural decomposition analysis applied to energy and emissions: Some methodological developments”. Energy Economics 34: 177–188.
The State Council of China, 2013. Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Development of Energy-Saving Environmental Protection Industry. File No. 30 [2013] of the State Council of China. (in Chinese)
Turner, K. (2009) “Negative Rebound and Disinvestment Effects in Response to an Improvement in Energy Efficiency in the UK Economy”. Energy Economics 31: 648–66.
Turner K. and N. Hanley (2011) “Energy Efficiency, Rebound Effects and the Environmental Kuznets Curve”. Energy Economics 33: 709–20.
Wang, K., C. Wang and J. Chen (2009) “Analysis of the Economic Impact of Different Chinese Climate Policy Options based on a CGE Model Incorporating Endogenous Technological Change”. Energy Policy 37: 2930–40.
Wu, L., S. Kaneko and S. Matsuoka (2005) “Driving Forces behind the Stagnancy of China’s Energy-Related CO2 Emissions, Intensity Change and Scale Change”. Energy Policy 33: 319–35.
Xu, Y., K. Jiang and T. Masui (2007) “Hybrid Modeling: Assessing Energy Intensity Reduction Target in China”. Presentation at the Asia Energy Environment Modeling Forum, Beijing.
Zhang, D., S. Rausch, V.J. Karplus and X. Zhang (2013) “Quantifying Regional Economic Impacts of CO2 Intensity Targets in China”. Energy Economics 40: 687–701.
Zhang, Y. (2009) “Structural Decomposition Analysis of Sources of Decarbonizing Economic Development in China: 1992–2006”. Ecological Economics 68: 2399–405.
Zhang, Y. (2013) “Comparing Performances of Carbon Intensity and Level Restriction: An Analysis based on CGE Model”. The Journal of World Economy 36, 7: 138–60. (in Chinese)
Zhang, Y., J.Y. Zhang, Z.F. Yang and S.S. Li (2011) “Regional Differences in the Factors That Influence China’s Energy-Related Carbon Emissions, And Potential Mitigation Strategies”. Energy Policy 39: 7712–8.
Zha, D. and D. Zhou (2010) “The Research on China’s Energy Efficiency Rebound Effect Based on CGE Model”. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics 27, 12: 39–53. (in Chinese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2016 The Author(s)
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Zhang, Y. (2016). Prospects for Energy Savings and GHG Emissions Reductions from Energy Efficiency. In: Su, B., Thomson, E. (eds) China's Energy Efficiency and Conservation. SpringerBriefs in Environment, Security, Development and Peace, vol 31. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0928-0_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0928-0_4
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-10-0927-3
Online ISBN: 978-981-10-0928-0
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)