Regional Framework for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the WANA Region

Abstract

WANA Region is mostly arid or semiarid, therefore climate extremes (particularly drought) are frequent events. Agriculture is constrained with limited land and water resources, as well as inadequate capital investment and poor marketing facilities. Climate change (CC) is a global recognized phenomenon including warming, sea level rise and greenhouse gas emissions. In spite of the fact that several scenarios are forecasting occurrence of CC events, degrees of certainty are questioned by many researchers, to the extent of even citing some CC benefits from temperature rise and CO₂ enrichment in enhancing agriculture outputs. The agriculture sector, as much as it could be a victim of CC; has a significant mitigation role. International organizations focused lately on CC mitigation and adaptation plans, including the FAO Conference on CC Adaptation and Mitigation in Beirut in 2006 and the ICARDA International Conference on CC and Food Security in Jordan in 2010. A Regional Adaptation Framework is presented to address climate change including a multidisciplinary approach, covering the following issues: (i) move from emergency to risk management, (ii) sustainable management of the natural resource base (land, water, forestry, fisheries); (iii) relevant policy reform and legislation; (iv) enabling capacity to adapt to climate change with regional cooperation and partnership; and (v) enhancing the role of research including potential of resources, land and water and indigenous water-saving techniques.

Annex I: Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability of the Countries of the Near East Region

Country	Vulnerable sectors and possible impacts of climate change	Common climate-related disasters1	% of total population under desertification risk2 1997	Total actual renewable water resources per capita (m3/inhab/year)3	% of potential arable land actually in use4 1997	Projected % change in agricultural production capacity for 2070–2099 with respect to 1961–1990 baseline5
Afghanistan	Access to safe drinking water may worsen.6	Landslides (2006). floods	98	2,608	265	−13
Algeria	Vulnerable to natural hazards such as floods and drought.7	Floods (1969)	53	443	63	−26
Azerbaijan	Decrease in water resources. Projected rise of the Caspian Sea level. Winter pastures may be negatively affected.8	Floods (1995)	59	3,584	51
Bahrain	Low-lying areas of the country’s islands vulnerable to sea level rise9	None		157
Cyprus	Sea level rise vulnerability index10=6 Damage on marine environment. More frequent. Intense and longer droughts and heat waves. Water stress.11	Windstorms (1969). Extreme temperatures	93	965	33
Djibouti	Sea level rise vulnerability index = 0.37 Ground water recharge may be affected. Increased risk of floods and other extreme events.12	Floods (1989), drought	0	421	0
Egypt	Reduced productivity of crops and increased water requirements. Heavily populated Nile Delta vulnerable to sea level rise.13 Sea level rise vulnerability index−0.15	Floods (1994), windstorms	0	794	2,893	28
Iran	Change in length of growth period and number of freezing days.14 Damage from intense cyclones originating in Arabian Sea.15	Drought (1999), floods	95	1,970	385	−18
Iraq	Possible impacts on Tigris-Euphrates stream flow.16 Increasing irrigation demand.17	Drought (1969), floods	95	2,971	131	−32
Jordan	Increasing irrigation demand.18 Possible rainfall decrease adds additional stress to already scare water resources.19	Drought (1999), floods windstorms, high temperatures	100	157	72
Kazakhstan	Spring wheat decreases, winter wheat increases, with overall net decrease projected. Rangelands changes project decrease in wool production.20 Glacier decreasing in northern Tien Shan.21	Extreme temperatures (1997), floods, wildfires	96	7,116	478	28
Kuwait	Low coastal areas vulnerable to sea level rise. Storm surges affect coastal oil production.22	Floods (1997)	0	8	500
Kyrgyz	Decreased cropland for cereals.23 Glacier decreasing in northern Tien Shan.24	Landslides (1994), windstorms, floods	100	3,952	164
Lebanon	Increased stresses on water resources. Shift of arable area to more arid climate zone. Negative impacts on citrus, olive, apple and sugar beet production.25	Windstorms (1992), floods	49	1,189	114
Libya	Recurring droughts and dependence on rainfed agriculture. Possible desertification of Jifara Plain in northwest.26	None	97	106	88
Malta	Shorter rainy season will decrease crop production.27 Sea level rise vulnerability index=507	None	0	128	33
Mauritania	Decreased water resources. Dependence on water originating outside border. Degradation of arable land. Degradation of pasture and loss of livestock.28	Drought (1980), floods	98	3,826	15
Morocco	Ouergha watershed will likely see changes in runoff.29 Sea level rise vulnerability index = 0.24	Drought (1999), floods	80	934	76	−30
Oman	Seawater intrusion into freshwater aquifers30 Storm surges affect coastal oil production.31 Decreasing groundwater level.	Windstorms (2007)	0	336	6,300
Pakistan	Changes in growing season length affect wheat production. Decreased wheat yield projection is possible.32 Glacier extent affects Indus River basin.33 Glaciers in Himalayas will recede.34	Floods (1992), drought, windstorms	99	1,415	392	−20
Qatar	Increasing water stress. Storm surges affect coastal oil production.35	N.A.	0	86	800
Saudi Arabia	Water stress will increase due to warmer temperature.36	Floods (2003), windstorms	0	96	380,000	−10
Somalia	Food shortage may worsen under warmer temperature and extreme weather events.	Floods (1997), drought, ocean surges	96	1,377	43
Sudan	Decreased precipitation and increased temperature and evaporation will lead to reduced groundwater recharge. Water stress will increase. Dependence on water originating outside border. Projected decrease of millet and sorghum.37	Drought (1991), floods	86 Desertification of arable areas, arable zone shifts southward.	1,879	15	−50
Syria	Possible impacts on Tigris-Euphrates stream flow.38 Increasing irrigation demand.39	Drought (1999), floods, windstorms, land slides	79	1,441	98	−16
Tajikistan	Hydropower generation could be affected.40 Decrease of glaciers and ice cover. Changing temperature and rainfall pattern could negatively affect agriculture.41	Floods (2004)	90	2,537	45
Tunisia	Mediterranean coastline vulnerable to sea level rise. Increased water stress.42	Floods (1979), drought	38	459	150
Turkey	Decreasing stream flow continues in western basins.43 Possible impacts on Tigris-Euphrates stream flow.44	Flood (1998)	70	2,953	110	−4
Turkmenistan	Increase water requirement for cotton and wheat, Reducing glacier threatens river water availability.45	Flood (1993)	77	5,004	195
UAE	Seawater intrusion into freshwater aquifers46 Storm surges affect coastal oil production.47	None	0	49	3,900
Uzbekistan	High temperatures and water deficit may have negative impact on crops and pasture vegetation productivity, and livestock.48 Rainfall increase may lead to occurrence of flash floods. Reduction in snow and ice reserves reduces water availability.49	Floods (2005), Landslides	88	1,904	104	1
Yemen	Risk of desertification. Increasing irrigation demand.50	Floods (1982), drought	100	198	30,900	−17