Skip to main content

Foreign Direct Investment and Macroeconomic Indicators in India: A Causality Analysis

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
International Trade and International Finance

Abstract

The objective of the present study is to analyse the pattern of movement of external capital flows to Indian economy in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI) along with other macroeconomic indicators, namely, real GDP, US dollar exchange rate, inflation, T-bill rate, trade openness, and Dow Jones Index value, and their probable impact on the financial and overall performance of the economy. Given that the current study period is from 1997–98 to 2013–14, and the tremendous growth in terms of external capital inflows in India during that time simultaneously with near double digit economic growth, the focus of the chapter is primarily to unravel the linkage between the FDI inflows and the selected macroeconomic fundamentals with the help of quarterly time series data using cointegration and causality analysis.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    Average rate of inflation (based on WPI) was 4.9 % during the Ninth Plan (1997–98 to 2001–02) and 4.8 % during the Tenth Plan (up to January, 2006) [Source: Economic Survey of India 2006–07: http://indiabudget.nic.in/es2006-07/esmain.htm].

References

  • Aitken BJ, Harrison Ann E (1999) Do domestic firms benefit from direct foreign investment? Evidence from Venezuela. Am Econ Rev 89(3):605–618

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhattacharya B, Mukherjee J (2008) Indian equity market since liberalization: efficiency, volatility and structural break. World View, Kolkata

    Google Scholar 

  • Cipollina M, Giovannetti G, Pietrovito F, Pozzol Alberto F (2012) FDI and growth: what cross-country industry data say. World Econ 35(11):1599–1629

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cho J-W (2003) ‘Foreign direct investment: determinants, trends in flows and promotion policies’. Chapter V of investment promotion and enterprise development bulletin for Asia and the pacific, 1, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and The Pacific, UN

    Google Scholar 

  • Dickey DA, Fuller WA (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. J Am Stat Assoc 74(366):427–431

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dolado JJ, Lutkepohl H (1996) Making wald test work for cointegrated VAR systems. Econometric Rev 15(4):369–386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Granger CWJ (1969) Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica 37(3):424–438

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gujarati DN (2006) Essential of econometrics, 3rd Edn. McGraw Hill

    Google Scholar 

  • Gyapong AO, Karikari JA (1999) Direct foreign investment strategies and economic performance in Ghana and Ivory Coast. J Econ Dev 24(1):133–147

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsiao C (1981) Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection. J Monetary Econ 7(1):85–106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jha R(2003) “Recent trend in FDI flows and prospects for India”, Unpublished in Social science research network electronic paper collection. http://ssrn.com/abstract=431927

  • Karimi MS, Yusop Z (2009) “FDI and economic growth in Malaysia”, MPRA Paper No. 14999. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14999/

  • Keshava SR (2008) “The effect of FDI on India and Chinese economy; a comparative analysis”, Unpublished in Social Science Research Network (SSRN). http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1089964. Accessed 2 Feb 2008

  • Lipsey Robert, Sjöholm Fredrik (2011) Foreign direct investment and growth in East Asia: lessons for Indonesia. Bull Indonesian Econ Stud 47(1):35–63

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mottaleb AK (2008) ‘Determinants of foreign direct investment and its impact on economic growth in developing countries’, Unpublished in MPRA Paper No. 9457

    Google Scholar 

  • Nonnemberg MB, Cardoso de Mendonça MJ (2004) “Determinants of foreign direct investment in developing countries”. www.anpec.org.br/encontro2004/artigos/A04A061.pdf

  • OECD (2002) “Foreign direct investment for development: maximizing benefits minimizing costs”, Report of the steering group on foreign direct investment: foreign investment India. OECD, Paris. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/47/51/1959815.pdf

  • Planning Commission of India (2002) “Report of the steering group on foreign direct investment: foreign investment India”. Planning Commission, Government of India, New Delhi. http://planningcommission.nic.in/aboutus/committee/strgrp/stgp_fdi.pdf. Accessed 10 June 2005

  • Rodriguez AC (2000) Macroeconomic policy lessons from LDC’s. J Appl Economics 3(1):169–216

    Google Scholar 

  • Shahbaz M, Aamir N (2008) Direct foreign investment and income distribution: a case study for Pakistan. Int Res J Financ Econ 21(2008):7–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Sharma K (2000) “Export growth in India: has FDI played A Role?”. Economic Growth Center, Yale University, Center Discussion Paper No. 816

    Google Scholar 

  • Toda HY, Phillips PCB (1993) Vector autoregressions and causality. Econometrica 61(6):1367–1393

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Toda HY, Yamamoto T (1995) Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. J Econometrics 66(1–2):225–250

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zapata HO, Rambaldi AN (1997) Monte carlo evidence on cointegration and causation. Oxford Bull Econ Stat 59(2):285–298

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Basabi Bhattacharya .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2016 Springer India

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Bhattacharya, B., Mukherjee, J. (2016). Foreign Direct Investment and Macroeconomic Indicators in India: A Causality Analysis. In: Roy, M., Sinha Roy, S. (eds) International Trade and International Finance. Springer, New Delhi. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-2797-7_18

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics