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Influences of Climate Change on the Distribution and Population Dynamics of Subalpine Coniferous Forest in the Hakkoda Mountains, Northern Japan

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Structure and Function of Mountain Ecosystems in Japan

Part of the book series: Ecological Research Monographs ((ECOLOGICAL))

Abstract

Recent research in the Hakkoda Mountains has shown that climate change during recent decades has caused a shift in the distribution of subalpine coniferous forest, which is dominated by Abies mariesii. To examine this shift, we analyzed past and present aerial photographs and found population dynamics evidence that suggests a shift of this species’ distribution to higher elevations. A fine-scale habitat suitability model for the species elucidated the environmental conditions that determine its present distribution, and this model can be applied to predict the future distribution under the predicted warming scenarios. The model showed that not only temperature but also topography and snow deposition will regulate the future distribution. One important suggestion is that habitats at the periphery of moorlands will act as refugia for A. mariesii during the warming process. The fine-scale habitat model may therefore guide the management by providing a measure of how populations will adapt to environmental change.

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Acknowledgments

This study was financially supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (Sousei D), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (26281049), and The Mitsui & Co., Ltd. Environment Fund (R11-G4-1046).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Graduate School of Life Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi, 980-8578, Japan

    Tohru Nakashizuka, Masaya Shimazaki, Takahisa Tanaka, Hiroko Kurokawa & Kouki Hikosaka

  2. Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan

    Takehiro Sasaki

  3. Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Chiba University, 1-33 Yayoicho, Inage-ku, Chiba, 263-8522, Japan

    Takehiro Sasaki

  4. Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8687, Japan

    Hiroko Kurokawa

Authors
  1. Tohru Nakashizuka
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  2. Masaya Shimazaki
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  3. Takehiro Sasaki
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  4. Takahisa Tanaka
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  5. Hiroko Kurokawa
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  6. Kouki Hikosaka
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tohru Nakashizuka .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Environmental Earth Sci., Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan

    Gaku Kudo

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Nakashizuka, T., Shimazaki, M., Sasaki, T., Tanaka, T., Kurokawa, H., Hikosaka, K. (2016). Influences of Climate Change on the Distribution and Population Dynamics of Subalpine Coniferous Forest in the Hakkoda Mountains, Northern Japan. In: Kudo, G. (eds) Structure and Function of Mountain Ecosystems in Japan. Ecological Research Monographs. Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55954-2_1

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