Historical Temporal Trends of Climatic Variables Over Kashmir Valley and Discharge Response to Climate Variability in Upper Jhelum Catchment

Abstract

The Himalayan region is one of the most ecologically fragile ecosystems on earth. The global temperature change is likely to have a drastic impact on the hydrology, biodiversity, agriculture and others thereby effecting the people as well as the earth’s environment. Temperature data for six instrumental records in the Western Mountains of the Himalayas have been analyzed for seasonal and annual trends over the period of 1975–2009. The records were analyzed by fitting a linear least squares trend line to the annual deviation from the mean and assessing the significance of trend using Student’s t test. The impact of observed seasonal temperature and precipitation on discharge is also explored using Kendall’s correlation. Strong contrasts are found between the behavior of winter and summer temperatures and between maximum and minimum temperatures. Winter mean and maximum temperature show significant increases while minimum summer temperatures show consistent decline. The precipitation of the area is also shows signs of decline. The study depicts a significant correlation between precipitation and discharge and a weak correlation between temperature and discharge in the Upper Jhelum Basin.