Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Uncertainty in Travel Behavior

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Sustainable Transport Studies in Asia

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Mobility ((LNMOB))

  • 1908 Accesses

Abstract

This chapter gives an overview of uncertainty in travel behavior and its implications for transportation planning. We first address the issue of observation of travel behavior, which provides a foundation for analysis. We then focus on variations of travel behavior that contain information on uncertainties in terms of imperfect model fit to data. After that, changes in travel behavior are addressed, with regard to information on uncertainties in the degree to which the future will resemble the past. Based on the overview of behavioral observation, variations and changes, we discuss the avenues for future research on management of uncertainties from two viewpoints, one emphasizing the improvement of travel behavior analysis and the other the improvement of other components of the transportation planning process. From the former viewpoint, we show the importance of conducting uncertainty analysis to embed improved travel behavior analysis methods in the planning process in an appropriate manner. From the latter viewpoint, we underscore the importance of learning from accumulated experience in diverse countries/cities and learning from experience, particularly in developing countries.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
eBook
USD 16.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    http://www.probe-data.jp/eng/index.html (accessed on November 2, 2012).

  2. 2.

    http://mobilitaetspanel.ifv.uni-karlsruhe.de/en/index.html (accessed on November 2, 2012).

References

  • Acharya A, Sadhu S, Ghoshal TK (2011) Train localization and parting detection using data fusion. Transp Res C 19:75–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arentze TA, Timmermans HJP (2004) A learning-based transportation oriented simulation system. Transp Res B 38:613–633

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Argyris C (1992) On organizational learning. Blackwell, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Argyris C, Schon DA (1978) Organizational learning: a theory of action perspective. Addison-Wesley, Menlo Park

    Google Scholar 

  • Auld J, Mohammadian AK (2009) Framework for the development of the agent-based dynamic activity planning and travel scheduling (ADAPTS) model. Transp Lett 1:245–255

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Axhausen KW, Gärling T (1992) Activity-based approaches to travel analysis: conceptual frameworks, models, and research problems. Transp Rev 12:323–341

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Axhausen KW, Zimmermann A, Schonfelder S, Rindsfuser G, Haupt T (2002) Observing the rhythms of daily life: a six-week travel diary. Transportation 29:95–124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Axhausen KW, Löchl M, Schlich R, Buhl T, Widmer P (2007) Fatigue in long-duration travel diaries. Transportation 34:143–160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhat CR, Guo JY, Srinivasan S, Sivakumar A (2004) A comprehensive econometric microsimulator for daily activity-travel patterns. Transp Res Rec 1894:57–66

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bowman JL, Ben-Akiva ME (2001) Activity-based disaggregate travel demand model system with activity schedules. Transp Res A 35:1–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bulmer S, Padgett S (2004) Policy transfer in the European Union: an institutionalist perspective. Br J Polit Sci 35:103–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chikaraishi M (2010) Changes in and variations of activity-travel behavior. Dissertation, Hiroshima University (in Japanese). http://ir.lib.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/00031666. Accessed 3 Nov 2012

  • Chikaraishi M, Fujiwara A, Zhang J, Axhausen KW (2009) Exploring variation properties of departure time choice behavior using multilevel analysis approach. Transp Res Rec 2134:10–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chikaraishi M, Zhang J, Fujiwara A, Axhausen KW (2010a) Exploring variation properties of time use behavior based on a multilevel multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model. Transp Res Rec 2156:101–110

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chikaraishi M, Fujiwara A, Zhang J, Lee BJ (2010b) Spatiotemporal changes of traffic demand price elasticities in Japan throughout 2008: Bayesian approach. Transp Res Rec 2156:81–92

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chikaraishi M, Fujiwara A, Zhang J, Axhausen KW (2011a) Identifying variations and co-variations in discrete choice models. Transportation 38(6):993–1016

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chikaraishi M, Fujiwara A, Zhang J, Axhausen KW, Zumkeller D (2011b) Changes in variations of travel time expenditure: some methodological considerations and empirical results from German Mobility Panel. Transp Res Rec 2230:121–131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chikaraishi M, Zhang J, Fujiwara A (2012) Exploring long-term changes of cross-sectional variations in Japanese time use behaviour. J Jpn Soc Civil Eng D3 68(3):200–215

    Google Scholar 

  • Chikaraishi M, Fujiwara A, Zhang J, Zumkeller D (2013) Optimal sampling designs for multiday and multiperiod panel survey. In: Zmud J, Lee-Gosselin M, Carrasco JA, Munizaga MA (eds) Transport survey methods: best practice for decision making. Emerald Group Publishing, pp. 349–372

    Google Scholar 

  • Clarke M, Dix M, Goodwin P (1982) Some issues of dynamics in forecasting travel behaviour – a discussion paper. Transportation 11:153–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Common R (2004) Organisational learning in a political environment. Policy Stud 25:35–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diez-Roux AV (1998) Bringing context back into epidemiology: variables and fallacies in multilevel analysis. Am J Public Health 88:216–222

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Dolowitz DP, Marsh AD (2000) Learning from abroad: the role of policy transfer in contemporary policy-making. Governance 13:5–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Epstein JM (2006) Generative social science: studies in agent-based computational modeling. Princeton University Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

  • Flyvbjerg B, Bruzelius N, Rothengatter W (2003) Megaprojects and risk: an anatomy of ambition. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Friend JK, Jessop N (1976) Local government and strategic choice, 2nd edn. Pergamon, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Gifford JL (2003) Flexible urban transportation. Emerald, Bingly

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldstein H (2003) Multilevel statistical models, 3rd edn. Edward Arnold, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Goulias KG (1999) Longitudinal analysis of activity and travel pattern dynamics using generalized mixed Markov latent class models. Transp Res B 33:535–557

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goulias KG, Kilgren N, Kim T (2003) A decade of longitudinal travel behavior observation in the Puget Sound region: sample composition, summary statistics, and a selection of first order findings. Paper presented at the 10th international conference on Travel Behaviour Research, Lucerne, 10–14 August 2003

    Google Scholar 

  • Hägerstrand T (1970) What about people in regional science? Pap Proc Reg Sci Assoc 24:7–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hall P (1982) Great planning disasters. University of California Press, Berkeley

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanson S, Huff JO (1988) Systematic variability in repetitious travel. Transportation 15:111–135

    Google Scholar 

  • Harvey AS (1996) The measurement of household time allocation: data needs, analytical approaches, and standardization. J Fam Econ Issues 17:261–280

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hato E, Kitamura R (2008) Data-oriented travel behavior analysis based on Probe Person systems. In: TRB conference proceedings 42—innovations in travel demand modeling: summary of a conference, vol 2, pp 187–196. http://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=883964. Accessed 7 Dec 7

  • Hensher DA (1988) Model specification for a dynamic discrete continuous choice automobile demand system. In: Golledge RG, Timmermans HJP (eds) Behavioural modelling in geography and planning. Croom Helm, London, pp 399–423

    Google Scholar 

  • Hox JJ (1995) Applied multilevel analysis. TT-Publikaties, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Hyodo T (2002) Issues and prospects of transportation demand forecasting. Traffic Eng 37(5):15–21 (in Japanese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ison S, Marsden G, May AD (2011) Transferability of urban transport policy. Transp Policy 18(3):489–491

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kitamura R (1988) An evaluation of activity-based travel analysis. Transportation 15:9–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kitamura R (1990) Panel analysis in transportation planning: an overview. Transp Res A 24:401–415

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kitamura R (2003) A preliminary study on variability. Invited paper. Infrastruct Plann Rev 20:1–15 (in Japanese)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kitamura R, Fujii S, Pas EI (1997) Time-use data, analysis and modeling: toward the next generation of transportation planning methodologies. Transp Policy 4:225–235

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kitamura R, Yamamoto T, Fujii S (2003) The effectiveness of panels in detecting changes in discrete travel behavior. Transp Res B 37:191–206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kitamura R, Yamamoto T, Susilo YO, Axhausen KW (2006) How routine is a routine? An analysis of the day-to-day variability in prism vertex location. Transp Res A 40:259–279

    Google Scholar 

  • Knight FH (1921) Risk, uncertainty, and profit, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston

    Google Scholar 

  • Kouvelis P, Yu G (1997) Robust discrete optimization and its applications. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht

    Google Scholar 

  • Krasny ME, Lundholm C, Plummer R (2010) Environmental education, resilience, and learning: reflection and moving forward. Environ Educ Res 16:665–672

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kreft I, de Leeuw J (1998) Introducing multilevel modeling. Sage, Thousand Oaks

    Google Scholar 

  • Levinson D, Kumar A (1995) Temporal variations on the allocation of time. Transp Res Rec 1493:118–127

    Google Scholar 

  • Lundholm C, Plummer R (2010) Resilience and learning: a conspectus for environmental education. Environ Educ Res 16:475–491

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • March JG (1979) The technology of foolishness. In: March JG, Olsen JP (eds) Ambiguity and choice in organizations. Universitetsforlaget, Bergen, pp 69–81

    Google Scholar 

  • Marsden G, Frick KT, May AD, Deakin E (2012) Bounded rationality in policy learning amongst cities: lessons from the transport sector. Environ Plann A 44:905–920

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McNally MG, Lee MS (2002) Putting behavior in household travel behavior data: an interactive GIS-based survey via the Internet. Center for Activity Systems Analysis, University of California Irvine, UCI-ITS-AS-WP-02-11. http://www.uctc.net/papers/693.pdf. Accessed 7 Dec 2012

  • Miller EJ, Roorda MJ (2003) Prototype model of household activity/travel scheduling (TASHA). Transp Res Rec 1831:114–121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan MG, Henrion M (1990) Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Pas EI (1986) Multiday samples, parameter estimation precision, and data collection costs for least squares regression trip-generation models. Environ Plann A 18:73–87

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pas EI (1987) Intrapersonal variability and model goodness-of-fit. Transp Res A 21:431–438

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pas EI, Sundar S (1995) Intrapersonal variability in daily urban travel behavior: some additional evidence. Transportation 22:135–150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pendyala RM, Pas EI (2000) Multi-day and multi-period data for travel demand analysis and modeling. TRB Transportation Research Circular E-C008: Transportation Surveys: Raising the Standard. http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/circulars/ec008/workshop_b.pdf. Accessed 7 Dec 2012

  • Rasouli S, Timmermans HJP (2012) Uncertainty in travel demand forecasting models: literature review and research agenda. Transp Lett 4:55–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robinson WS (1950) Ecological correlations and the behavior of individuals. Am Sociol Rev 15(3):351–357

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roorda MJ, Lee-Gosselin M, Doherty S, Miller EJ, Rondier P (2005) Travel/activity panel surveys in the Toronto and Quebec city regions: comparison of methods and preliminary results. Paper presented at the 2nd international colloquium on the behavioural foundations of integrated land use and transportation models, Toronto, June 12–15, 2005

    Google Scholar 

  • Schlich R, Axhausen KW (2003) Habitual travel behaviour: evidence from a six-week travel diary. Transportation 30:13–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stauffacher M, Schlich R, Axhausen KW, Scholz R (2005) The diversity of travel behaviour: motives and social interactions in leisure time activities. Working papers, Arbeitsberichte Verkehr- und Raumplanung, IVT, ETH Zürich, Zürich

    Google Scholar 

  • Sterling S (2010) Learning for resilience, or the resilient learner? Towards a necessary reconciliation in a paradigm of sustainable education. Environ Educ Res 16:511–528

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stopher P, Greaves SP (2007) Household travel surveys: where are we going? Transp Res A 41:367–381

    Google Scholar 

  • Supernak J (1992) Temporal utility profiles of activities and travel: uncertainty and decision making. Transp Res B 26:61–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Teune H (1979) Cross-level analysis: a case of social inference. Qual Quant 13:527–537

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thøgersen J (2006) Understanding repetitive travel mode choices in a stable context: a Panel Study Approach. Transp Res A 40:621–638

    Google Scholar 

  • Timmermans HJP, Arentze T, Joh C-H (2001) Modeling effects of anticipated time pressure on execution of activity programs. Transp Res Board 1752:8–15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Timmermans HJP, Arentze TA, Joh C-H (2002) Analysing space-time behaviour: new approaches to old problems. Prog Hum Geogr 26:175–190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Wissen LJG, Meurs H (1989) The Dutch mobility panel: experiences and evaluation. Transportation 16:99–119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vare P, Scott W (2007) Learning for a change: exploring the relationship between education and sustainable development. J Educ Sustain Dev 1:191–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weinberg AM (1972) Science and trans-science. Minerva 10:209–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yee JL, Niemeier D (1996) Advantages and disadvantages: longitudinal vs. repeated cross-section surveys. A Discussion Paper, Project Battelle 94-16, FHWA, HPM-40, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Zahavi Y, Talvitie A (1980) Regularities in travel time and money expenditures. Transp Res Rec 750:13–19

    Google Scholar 

  • Zumkeller D (2009) The dynamics of change – latest results from the German Mobility Panel. Paper presented at the 12th international conference on travel behaviour research, Jaipur, 13–18 December 2009

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8656, Japan

    Makoto Chikaraishi

  2. Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, 1-5-1 Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima, 739-8529, Japan

    Akimasa Fujiwara & Junyi Zhang

Authors
  1. Makoto Chikaraishi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Akimasa Fujiwara
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Junyi Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Makoto Chikaraishi .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan

    Akimasa Fujiwara

  2. Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan

    Junyi Zhang

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2013 Springer Japan

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Chikaraishi, M., Fujiwara, A., Zhang, J. (2013). Uncertainty in Travel Behavior. In: Fujiwara, A., Zhang, J. (eds) Sustainable Transport Studies in Asia. Lecture Notes in Mobility. Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54379-4_11

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation