Zusammenfassung
Entscheidungen finden oft „unter Unsicherheit“ statt. Im Allgemeinen ist damit gemeint, dass für den Entscheider die möglichen Konsequenzen der Optionen unsicher sind, weil die Konsequenzen auch von anderen, durch ihn nicht kontrollierbaren Ereignissen abhängig sind. Wie Menschen mit dieser Unsicherheit umgehen, wie sie ihre „subjektiven Wahrscheinlichkeiten“ bilden, verändern, direkt zum Ausdruck bringen oder in ihrem Verhalten zeigen, ist ein zentrales Thema der Entscheidungsforschung. Damit werden wir uns in diesem Kapitel beschäftigen.
Literatur
Agnoli, F., & Krantz, D. H. (1989). Suppressing natural heuristics by formal instruction: the case of the conjunction fallacy. Cognitive Psychology, 21(4), 515–550. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(89)90017-0.
Anderson, J. R. (1990). The adaptive character of thought. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
Anderson, J. R. (2001). Kognitive Psychologie (3. Aufl.)(R. Graf & J. Grabowski Übers.) (Original erschienen 2000: cognitive psychology and its implications). Heidelberg: Spektrum Akademischer Verlag.
Anderson, J. R., & Lebiere, C. (1998). The atomic components of thought. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
Arkes, H. R., & Hammond, K. R. (Hrsg.). (1986). Judgment and decision making. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
Ayton, P. (1997). How to be incoherent and seductive: bookmakers’ odds and support theory. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 72(1), 99–115. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1997.2732.
Ayton, P., Hunt, A. J., & Wright, G. (1989). Psychological conceptions of randomness. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2, 221–238.
Ayton, P., Hunt, A. J., & Wright, G. (1991). Commentaries on ‚Psychological Concepts of randomness’. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 4, 215–226.
Bar-Hillel, M. (1980). The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments. Acta Psychol., 44(3), 211–233.
Bar-Hillel, M. (1989). How to solve probability teasers. Philosophy of Science, 56, 348–358.
Bar-Hillel, M., & Budescu, D. (1995). The elusive wishful thinking effect. Thinking & Reasoning, 1(1), 71–103, https://doi.org/10.1080/13546789508256906.
Bar-Hillel, M., & Neter, E. (1993). How alike is it versus how likely is it: a disjunction fallacy in probability judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65(6), 1119–1131, https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.65.6.1119.
Baron, J. (2008). Thinking and deciding (4. Aufl.). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Bayes, T. (1763). An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 53, 370–418.
Beach, L. R., Barnes, V. E., & Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. (1986). Beyond heuristics and biases - a contingency-model of judgmental forecasting. Journal of Forecasting, 5(3), 143–157. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980050302.
Bernoulli, D. (1738). Speciman theoriae novae de mensura sortis (Translated into German by A. Pringsheim 1967). Westmead: Gregg Press.
Beyth-Marom, R. (1982). How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions. Journal of Forecasting, 1(3), 257–269. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980010305.
Bonini, N., & Caverni, J. P. (1995). The catch all underestimation bias - availability hypothesis vs. category redefinition hypothesis. Cahiers De Psychologie Cognitive - Current Psychology of Cognition, 14(3), 301–322.
Borcherding, K. (1983). Entscheidungstheorie und Entscheidungshilfeverfahren für komplexe Entscheidungssituationen. In M. Irle (Hrsg.), Handbuch der Psychologie, Bd. 12: Marktpsychologie, 2. Halbbd. (S. 65–173). Göttingen: Hogrefe.
Brachinger, H. W., & Monney, P. A. (2003). The conjunction fallacy: explanations of the Linda problem by the theory of hints. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 18(1), 75–91. https://doi.org/10.1002/int.10075.
Brehmer, B., & Joyce, C. B. R. (Hrsg.). (1988). Human judgment: the SJT view. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Brenner, L. A., Koehler, D. J., Liberman, V., & Tversky, A. (1996). Overconfidence in probability and frequency judgments: a critical examination. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65(3), 212–219.
Bröder, A. (2000). Assessing the empirical validity of the „Take-The-Best“ heuristic as a model of human probabilistic inference. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26(5), 1332–1346. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.26.5.1332.
Bröder, A., & Schiffer, S. (2003). Take the best versus simultaneous feature matching: probabilistic inferences from memory and effects of reprensentation format. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 132(2), 277.
Brun, W., & Teigen, K. H. (1988). Verbal probabilities: ambiguous, context-dependent, or both? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 41(3), 390–404. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(88)90036-2.
Brunswik, E. (1952). The Conceptual Framework of Psychology, International Encyclopedia of Unified Science (Vol. 1 (10)). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Brunswik, E. (1955). Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology. Psychological Review, 62, 193–217.
Budescu, D. V., & Wallsten, T. S. (Hrsg.). (1995). Processing linguistic probabilities: general principles and empirical evidence. San Diego: Academic Press.
Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the „planning fallacy“: why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 366–381.
Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (2002). Inside the planning fallacy: The causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, & D. Kahneman (Hrsg.), Heuristics and biases: the psychology of intuitive judgment (S. 250–270). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Chapman, L. J., & Chapman, J. P. (1967). Genesis of popular but erroneous psychodiagnostic observations. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 72(3), 193–204. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0024670.
Chapman, L. J., & Chapman, J. P. (1969). Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 74, 271–280.
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., & Beach, L. R. (1982). Experience and the base-rate fallacy. Organizational Behavior & Human Performance, 29(2), 270–278. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(82)90260-4.
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., & Willham, C. F. (1991). The hindsight bias: a meta-analysis. Organizational Behavior and Humand Decision Processes, 48, 147–168.
Cohen, J. (1964). Behavior in uncertainty and its social implications. New York: Basic Books.
Cohen, L. J. (1977). The probable and the provable. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Dawes, R., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E. (1989). Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science, 243(March), 1668–1673.
Dudycha, L. W., & Naylor, J. C. (1966). Characteristics of the human inference process in complex choice behavior situations. Organizational Behavior & Human Performance, 1(1), 110–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(66)90008-0.
Eddy, D. M. (1982). Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: problems and opportunities. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Hrsg.), Judgement under unvertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 249–267). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Edwards, W. (1962). Subjective probabilities inferred from decisions. Psychological Review, 69, 109–135.
Edwards, W. (1968). Conservatism in human information processing. In B. Kleinmuntz (Hrsg.), Formal representation of human judgment (S. 17–52). New York: Wiley.
Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1985). Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference. Psychological Review, 92(4), 433–461.
Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1986). Decision Making Under Ambiguity. The Journal of Business, 59(4), 225–250.
Eisenführ, F., Weber, M., & Langer, T. (2010). Rationales Entscheiden (5. Aufl.). Berlin: Springer.
Epley, N., & Gilovich, T. (2006). The anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic. Why the adjustments are insufficient. Psychological Science, 17(4), 311–318.
Fabre, J.-M., Caverni, J.-P., & Jungermann, H. (1997). Effects of event probability and causality on the conjunction fallacy. Swiss Journal of Psychology – Schweizerische Zeitschrift fuer Psychologie – Revue Suisse de Psychologie, 56(2), 106–111.
Fabre, J.-M., & Caverni, J. P. (1995). Causality does influence conjunctive probability judgments if context and design allow for it. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 63(1), 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1995.1056.
Fiedler, K. (1988). The dependence of the conjunction fallacy on subtle linguistic factors. Psychological Research, 50, 123–129.
Fiedler, K. (Hrsg.). (1993). Kognitive Täuschungen bei der Erfassung von Ereigniskontingenzen. In W. Hell, K. Fiedler, & G. Gigerenzer (Hrsg.), Kognitive Täuschungen (pp. 213–242). Heidelberg: Spektrum Akademischer Verlag.
Fischer, K., & Jungermann, H. (1996). Rarely occurring headaches and rarely occurring blindness: is rarely = rarely? The meaning of verbal frequentistic labels in specific medical contexts. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 9(3), 153–172.
Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288–299.
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1978). Fault trees: sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4, 330–344.
Fisk, J. E. (2004). Conjunction fallacy. In R. F. Pohl (Hrsg.), Cognitive Illusions: A handbook on fallacies and biases in thinking, judgement and memory (pp. 23–42). Hove, UK: Psychology Press.
Frederick, S. (2005). Cognitive reflection and decision making. Journal of Economic Perpectives, 19(4), 25–42.
Gigerenzer, G. (1991). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: beyond heuristics and biases. European Review of Social Psychology, 2, 83–115.
Gigerenzer, G. (1994). Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is important for psychology (and vice versa). In G. Wright, & P. Ayton (Hrsg.), Subjective probability (S. 129–161). Chichester: Wiley.
Gigerenzer, G. (1996). On narrow norms and vague heuristics: a reply to Kahneman and Tversky. Psychological Review, 103, 592–596.
Gigerenzer, G. (2004). Fast and frugal heuristics: The tools of bounded rationality. In D. J. Koehler, & N. Harvey (Hrsg.), Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making. (S. 62–88). Malden: Blackwell Publishing.
Gigerenzer, G. (2007). Gut feelings. The intelligence of the unconscious. New York: Viking Penguin.
Gigerenzer, G., & Brighton, H. (2009). Homo heuristicus: why biased minds make better inferences. Topics in Cognitive Science, 1(1), 107–143. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1756-8765.2008.01006.x.
Gigerenzer, G., & Gaissmaier, W. (2011). Heuristic decision making. Annual Review of Psychology, 62, 451–482. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-120709-145346.
Gigerenzer, G., Gaissmaier, W., Kurz-Milcke, E., Schwartz, L. M., & Woloshin, S. W. (2007). Helping doctors and patients make sense of health statistics. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 8, 53–96.
Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. G. (1996). Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality. Psychological Review, 103(4), 650–669.
Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. G. (1999). Betting on one good reason: The take the best heuristic. In G. Gigerenzer, & P. M. Todd (Hrsg.), Simple heuristics that make us smart (S. 75–95). New York: Oxford University Press.
Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. G. (2011). The recognition heuristic: a decade of research. Judgment and Decision Making, 6(1), 100–121.
Gigerenzer, G., Hell, W., & Blank, H. (1988). Presentation and content: the use of base rates as a continuous variable. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 14, 513–525.
Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., Hoffrage, U., & Sedlmeier, P. (2008). Cognitive illusions reconsidered. In C. R. Plott, & V. L. Smith (Hrsg.), Handbook of experimental economics. Results (Bd. 1, S. 1018–1034). Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., & Pachur, T. (Hrsg.). (2011). Heuristics. The foundations of adaptive behavior. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: frequency formats. Psychological Review, 102(4), 684–704.
Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Kleinbölting, H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 98(4), 506–528.
Gigerenzer, G., Swijtink, Z., Porter, T., Daston, L., Beatty, J., & Krüger, L. (1989). The empire of chance. How probability changed science and everyday life. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Gigerenzer, G., & Todd, P. M. (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart. New York: Oxford University Press.
Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., & Kahneman, D. (Hrsg.). (2002). Heuristics and biases. The psychology of intuitive judgment. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985). The hot hand in basketball: on the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psychology, 17(3), 295–314.
Goldstein, D. G., & Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Models of ecological rationality: the recognition heuristic. Psychological Review, 109(1), 75–90.
Griffin, D., & Buehler, R. (1999). Frequency, probability, and prediction: easy solutions to cognitive illusions? Cognitive Psychology, 38(1), 48–78. https://doi.org/10.1006/cogp.1998.0707.
Hacking, I. (1975). The emergence of probability. London: Cambridge University Press.
Hacking, I. (2001). An introduction to probability and inductive logic. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Hammond, K. R. (1996). Human judgement and social policy. New York: Oxford University Press.
Hammond, K. R., & Stewart, T. R. (Hrsg.). (2001). The essential brunswik: beginnings, explications, applications. New York: Oxford University Press.
Hammond, K. R., Stewart, T. R., Brehmer, B., & Steinmann, D. O. (1975). Social judgment theory. In M. F. Kaplan, & S. Schwartz (Hrsg.), Human judgment and decision processes. New York: Academic Press.
Hastie, R., & Dawes, R. (2010). Rational choice in an uncertain world. The psychology of judgment and decision making (2. Aufl.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Heider, F., & Simmel, M. (1947). An experimental study of apparent behavior. The American Journal of Psychology, 57(2), 243–259.
Hell, W., Fiedler, K., & Gigerenzer, G. (Hrsg.). (1993). Kognitive Täuschungen. Heidelberg: Spektrum Akademischer Verlag.
Hell, W., Gigerenzer, G., Gauggel, S., Mall, M., & Müller, M. (1988). Hindsight bias: an interaction of automatic and motivational factors? Memory and Cognition, 16, 533–538.
Hertwig, R., Benz, B., & Krauss, S. (2008). The conjunction fallacy and the many meanings of „and“. Cognition, 108(3), 740–753.
Hertwig, R., & Gigerenzer, G. (1999). The ‚conjunction fallacy‘ revisited: how intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12(4), 275–305. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199912)12:4<275::AID-BDM323>3.0.CO;2-M.
Hoffrage, U. (2004). Overconfidence. In R. F. Pohl (Hrsg.), Cognitive illusions: A handbook on fallacies and biases in thinking, judgement, and memory (pp. 235–254). Hove, UK: Psychology Press.
Hoffrage, U., & Gigerenzer, G. (1998). Using natural frequencies to improve diagnostic inferences. Academic Medicine, 73(5), 538–540.
Hoffrage, U., Kurzenhäuser, S., & Gigerenzer, G. (2000). Wie kann man die Bedeutung medizinischer Testbefunde besser verstehen und kommunizieren? Zeitschrift für Ärztliche Fortbildung und Qualitätssicherung, 94, 713–719.
Hogarth, R. M. (1987). Judgement and choice: the psychology of decision (2. Aufl.). John Wiley & Sons.
Howell, W. C., & Burnett, S. A. (1978). Uncertainty measurement: a cognitive taxonomy. Organizational Behavior & Human Performance, 22(1), 45–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(78)90004-1.
Huber, O. (2004). Entscheiden unter Risiko: Aktive Risiko-Entschärfung. Psychologische Rundschau, 55, 127–134.
Johnson, E. J., Hershey, J., Meszaros, J., & Kunreuther, H. (1993). Framing, probability distortions, and insurance decisions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 7(1), 35–51. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01065313.
Johnson-Laird, P. N., & Wason, P. C. (Hrsg.). (1977). Thinking: readings in cognitive science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Jungermann, H. (1976). Rationale Entscheidungen. Bern: Huber.
Jungermann, H. (1986). The two camps on rationality. In H. R. Arkes, & K. R. Hammond (Hrsg.), Judgment and decision making. An interdisciplinary reader (S. 627–641). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Jungermann, H. (1997). Reasons for uncertainty: from frequencies to stories. Psychologische Beitrage, 39(1–2), 126–139.
Jungermann, H., & Thüring, M. (1993). Causal knowledge and the expression of uncertainty. In G. S. K. F. Wender (Hrsg.), The cognitive psychology of knowledge (S. 53–73). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Jungermann, H., & Wiedemann, P. (1988). Wer hat Angst vor Tversky & Kahneman: Gigerenzers Interpretation eine kognitive Illusion? Psychologische Rundschau, 39, 217–222.
Kahneman, D. (2003). A perspective on judgment and choice: mapping bounded rationality. American Psychologist, 58(9), 697–720.
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. London: Penguin.
Kahneman, D., & Frederick, S. (2002). Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, & D. Kahneman (Hrsg.), Heuristics and biases. The psychology of intuitive judgment (S. 49–81). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Kahneman, D., & Frederick, S. (2005). A model of heuristic judgment. In K. J. Holyoak, & R. J. Morrison (Hrsg.), The Cambridge handbook of thinking and reasoning (S. 267–293). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (Hrsg.). (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: a judgement of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430–454.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80(4), 237–251. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0034747.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982). Variants of uncertainty. Cognition, 11(2), 143–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0277(82)90023-3.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1996). On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychological Review, 103, 582–591.
Koehler, J. J. (1996). The base rate fallacy reconsidered: descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 19(1), 1–53. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X00041157.
Kolmogorov, A. N. (1933). Grundbegriffe der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung. Berlin: Springer.
Koriat, A., Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1980). Reasons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, 107–118.
Krause, P. J., & Clark, D. A. (1994). Uncertainty and subjective probabiliy in AI systems. In G. Wright, & P. Ayton (Hrsg.), Subjective Probability (pp. 501–527). Chichester: Wiley.
Kurzenhäuser, S., & Lücking, A. (2004). Statistical formats in Bayesian inference. In R. Pohl (Hrsg.), Cognitive illusions: a handbook on fallacies and biases in thinking, judgment, and memory (S. 61–77). Hove, UK: Psychology Press.
Lakatos, I. (1976). Proofs and refutations. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Langer, E. J. (1975). The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32(2), 311–328. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.32.2.311.
Laplace, P. S. (1820). Essai philosophique sur les probabilités. Paris: Bachelier.
Lee, W. (1977). Psychologische Entscheidungstheorie. Weinheim: Beltz.
Lewis, C., & Keren, G. (1999). On the difficulties underlying Bayesian reasoning: a comment on Gigerenzer and Hoffrage. Psychological Review, 106(2), 411–416. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.106.2.411.
Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips, L. D. (1982). Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Hrsg.), Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and Biases (S. 306–334). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., Layman, M., & Combs, B. (1978). Judged frequency of lethal events. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 4, 551–579.
Marewski, J. N., & Mehlhorn, K. (2011). Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making. Judgment and Decision Making, 6(6), 439–519.
Martignon, L., & Hoffrage, U. (2002). Fast, frugal, and fit: simple heuristics for paired comparison. Theory & Decision, 52(1), 29–71.
May, R. S. (1987a). Overconfidence as a result of incomplete and wrong knowledge. In R. W. Scholz (Hrsg.), Current issues in West German decision research (S. 13–31). Frankfurt/M.: Lang.
May, R. S. (1987b). Realismus von subjektiven Wahrscheinlichkeiten. Frankfurt /M.: Lang.
McCloskey, M., & Zaragoza, M. (1985). Misleading postevent information and memory for events: arguments and evidence against memory impairment hypotheses. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 114, 16. Jan.
Mellers, B., Hertwig, R., & Kahneman, D. (2001). Do frequency representations eliminate conjunction effects? An exercise in adversarial collaboration. Psychological Science, 12(4), 269–275.
Mellers, B. A., & McGraw, A. P. (1999). How to improve Bayesian reasoning: comment on Gigerenzer and Hoffrage (1995). Psychological Review, 106(2), 417–424. https://doi.org/10.1037//0033-295X.106.2.417.
Molz, G. (1993). Der Einfluß von Ambiguität und Insuffizienz auf kausale Inferenzen (Diplomarbeit). Berlin: Technische Universität Berlin, Institut für Psychologie.
Mussweiler, T., Englich, B., & Strack, F. (2004). Anchoring effect. In R. F. Pohl (Hrsg.), Cognitive illusions: a handbook on fallacies and biases in thinking, judgment, and memory (S. 183–200). Hove, UK: Psychology Press.
Mussweiler, T., & Strack, F. (2000). The use of category and exemplar knowledge in the solution of anchoring tasks. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78(6), 1038–1052.
Newell, B. R. (2005). Re-visions of rationality? Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 9(1), 11–15.
Newell, B. R., & Fernandez, D. (2006). On the binary quality of recognition and the inconsequentiality of further knowledge: two critical tests of the recognition heuristic. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19(4), 333–346. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.531.
Newell, B. R., Lagnado, D. A., & Shanks, D. R. (2007). Straight choices. The psychology of decision making. New York: Psychology Press.
Newell, B. R., & Shanks, D. R. (2003). Take the best or look at the rest? Factors influencing „one-reason“ decision making. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 29(1), 53–65. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.29.1.53.
Newell, B. R., Weston, N. J., & Shanks, D. R. (2003). Empirical tests of a fast-and-frugal heuristic: not everyone „takes-the-best”. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 91(1), 82–96.
Nisbett, R. E., & Ross, L. (1980). Human inference: strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.
Oosterhof, N. N., & Todorov, A. (2008). The functional basis of face evaluation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105(32), 11087–11092.
Oppenheimer, D. M. (2003). Not so fast! (and not so frugal!): Rethinking the recognition heuristic. Cognition, 90(1), B1–B9.
Oskarsson, A. T., Van Boven, L., McClelland, G. H., & Hastie, R. (2009). What’s next? Judging sequences of binary events. Psychological Bulletin, 135(2), 262–285. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0014821.
Peterson, C. R., & Beach, L. R. (1967). Man as an intuitive statistician. Psychological Bulletin, 68, 29–46.
Pfrang, H. (1993). Internale und externale Verursachung: Die Herstellung und Aufhebung von Kontrollillusionen und Attributionsfehlern. In W. Hell, K. Fiedler, & G. Gigerenzer (Hrsg.), Kognitive Täuschungen (pp. 243–270). Heidelberg: Spektrum Akademischer Verlag.
Phillips, L. D., & Edwards, W. (1966). Conservatism in a simple probability inference task. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 72, 346–354.
Plous, S. (1993). The psychology of judgment and decision making. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Pohl, R. F. (1992). Der Rückschau-Fehler: Systematische Verfälschung der Erinnerung bei Experten und Novizen. Kognitionswissenschaft, 3, 38–44.
Pohl, R. F. (Hrsg.). (2004a). Cognitive illusions. A handbook on fallacies and biases in thinking, judgement and memory. Hove, UK: Psychology Press.
Pohl, R. F. (2004b). Hindsight bias. In R. F. Pohl (Hrsg.), Cognitive illusions: a handbook on fallacies and biases in thinking, judgement, and memory (S. 363–378). Hove, UK: Psychology Press.
Pohl, R. F., & Hell, W. (1996). No reduction in hindsight bias after complete information and repeated testing. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67(1), 49–58. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1996.0064.
Polya, G. (1957). How to solve it. Garden City, NY: Doubleday.
von Randow, G. (1992). Das Ziegenproblem. Denken in Wahrscheinlichkeiten. Reinbeck bei Hamburg: Rowohlt.
Reber, R. (2004). Availability. In R. F. Pohl (Hrsg.), Cognitive illusions: A handbook on fallacies and biases thinking, judgment and memory (pp. 147–164). Hove, UK: Psychology Press.
Rosch, E. (1978). Principles of categorization. In E. Rosch, & B. B. Lloyd (Hrsg.), Cognition and categorization (S. 27–48). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
Ross, M., & Sicoly, F. (1979). Egocentric biases in availability and attribution. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37(3), 322–336.
Russo, J. E., & Kolzow, K. J. (1994). Where is the fault in fault trees? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 20(1), 17–32. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.20.1.17.
Russo, J. E., & Schoemaker, P. J. H. (Hrsg.). (1989). Decision traps. New York: Doubleday.
Scholz, R. W. (1987). Cognitive strategies in stochastic thinking. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Reidel
Schwarz, N. (2002). Feelings as information: Moods influence judgments and processing strategies. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, & D. Kahneman (Hrsg.), Heuristics and biases: the psychology of intuitive judgment. (S. 534–547). New York, NY, US: Cambridge University Press.
Schwarz, N., Bless, H., Strack, F., Klumpp, G., Rittenauer-Schatka, H., & Simons, A. (1991). Ease of retrieval as information: another look at the availability heuristic. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 61(2), 195–202.
Sedlmeier, P., & Betsch, T. (Hrsg.). (2002). Etc. – Frequency processing and cognition. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Shafir, E., & LeBoeuf, R. A. (2002). Rationality. Annual Review of Psychology, 53, 491–517.
Shanks, D. R., Tunney, R. J., & McCarthy, J. D. (2002). A re-examination of probability matching and rational choice. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 15(3), 233–250.
Simon, H. A. (1956). Rational choice and the structure of the environment. Psychological Review, 63, 129–138.
Spies, M. (1993). Unsicheres Wissen. Heidelberg: Spektrum.
Stahlberg, D., Eller, F., Maass, A., & Frey, D. (1995). We knew it all along: hindsight bias in groups. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 63(1), 46–58. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1995.1060.
Stegmüller, W. (1973a). Personelle und Statistische Wahrscheinlichkeit. Erster Halbband: Personelle Wahrscheinlichkeit und Rationale Entscheidung. Probleme der Wissenschaftstheorie und Analytischen Philosophie. Band IV.
Stegmüller, W. (1973b). Entscheidungslogik (Rationale Entscheidungstheorie). Probleme und Resultate der Wissenschaftstheorie und Analytischen Philosophie (Bd. IV.B). Berlin: Springer.
Stevens, S. S. (1975). Psychophysics: introduction to its perceptual, neural, and social prospects. New York: Wiley.
Teigen, K. H. (1988). The language of uncertainty. Acta Psychologica, 68, 27–38.
Teigen, K. H. (1990). To be convincing or to be right: A question of preciseness. In K. Gilhooly, M. Keane, R. Logan, & G. Erdos (Hrsg.), Lines of thinking: reflections on the psychology of thought. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Teigen, K. H. (1994). Variants of subjective probabilities: Concepts, norms, and biases. In G. Wright, & P. Ayton (Hrsg.), Subjective probability (S. 211–238). Oxford, UK: John Wiley & Sons.
Teigen, K. H. (2004). Judgments by representativeness. In R. F. Pohl (Hrsg.), Cognitive illusuions: a handbook on fallaciesand biases in thinking, judgment, and memory (S. 165–182). Hove, UK: Psychology Press.
Teigen, K. H., & Brun, W. (2003). Verbal expressions of uncertainty and probability. In D. Hardman, & L. Macchi (Hrsg.), Thinking: psychological perspectives in reasoning, judgment and decision making (S. 125–146). Chinchester: John Wiley & Sons.
Thüring, M., & Jungermann, H. (1990). The conjunction fallacy: causality vs. event probability. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 3, 61–74.
Thüring, M. (1991). Probabilistisches Denken in kausalen Modellen. Weinheim: Psychologie Verlags Union.
Trabasso, T., & van den Broek, P. (1985). Causal thinking and the representation of narrative events. Journal of Memory and Language, 24(5), 612–630.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5, 207–232.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124–1131.
Tversky, A., & Koehler, D. J. (1994). Support theory: a nonextensional representation of subjective probability. Psychological Review, 101, 547–567.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982). Judgments of and by representativeness. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Hrsg.), Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases (S. 84–98). Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review, 90(4), 293–315. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.90.4.293.
Villejoubert, G., & Mandel, D. R. (2002). The inverse fallacy: an account of deviations from Bayes’s theorem and the additivity principle. Memory & Cognition, 30, 171–178.
Wallsten, T. S., Budescu, D. V., & Erev, I. (1988). Understanding and using linguistic uncertainties. Acta Psychologica, 68, 39–52.
Wallsten, T. S., Budescu, D. V., & Tsao, C. J. (1997). Combining linguistic probabilities. Psychologische Beiträge, 39(1–2), 27–55.
Weber, E. U., & Hilton, D. J. (1990). Contextual effects in the interpretations of probability words: perceived base rate and severity of events. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 16(4), 781–789. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.16.4.781.
Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(5), 806–820.
von Winterfeldt, D., & Edwards, W. (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral research. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Wittgenstein, L. (1971). Über Gewissheit. Frankfurt a. M.: Suhrkamp.
Wright, G., & Ayton, P. (Hrsg.). (1994). Subjective probability. Oxford, UK: Wiley.
Yaniv, I., & Foster, D. P. (1995). Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: an accuracy-informativeness trade-off. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 124(4), 424–432. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-3445.124.4.424.
Yates, F. J. (1990). Judgment and decision making. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall.
Zimmer, A. C. (1984). A model for the interpretation of verbal predictions. International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, 20(1), 121–134. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0020-7373(84)80009-7.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Pfister, H.R., Jungermann, H., Fischer, K. (2017). Unsicherheit. In: Die Psychologie der Entscheidung. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-53038-2_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-53038-2_5
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-662-53037-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-662-53038-2
eBook Packages: Psychology (German Language)