Skip to main content

Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Cardiac Surgery

Abstract

Risk scores in cardiac surgery are applied to sort, for example, patients, diseases, treatments, and hospitals according to criteria such as severity or various outcome expectations. Finding the optimal treatment methods; monitoring, preserving, or improving treatment quality; and discerning better and less good performing hospitals or surgeons belong to the scopes of scor ing.

Originally, scores were a simplified way of counting that was based on group formation. Today, the increasingly available computing power shifted the principal meaning of the word “score” toward far more complex prediction systems that are based frequently on multivariable logistic regression. The chapter gives an overview on various kinds, reasonable, and misleading use of scores and the potential consequences of their utilization. The chapter further describes in detail the most frequently used scores in the field of acquired (STS, EuroSCORE, KCH-SCORE 3.0) and congenital heart surgery (RACHS-1, Aristotle, STAT Mortality Score).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Abel U (1993) Bewertung diagnostischer Tests. Hippokrates, Stuttgart, Germany

    Google Scholar 

  • Al-Radi OO, Harrell FE Jr, Caldarone CA, McCrindle BW, Jacobs JP, Williams MG, Van Arsdell GS, Williams WG (2007) Case complexity scores in congenital heart surgery: a comparative study of the Aristotle basic complexity score and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) system. J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 133:865–875

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Artrip JH, Campbell DN, Ivy DD, Almodovar MC, Chan KC, Mitchell MB, Clarke DR, Lacour-Gayet F (2006) Birth weight and complexity are significant factors for the management of hypoplastic left heart syndrome. Ann Thorac Surg 82:1252–1257

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Asrani SK, Kim WR (2010) Organ allocation for chronic liver disease: model for end-stage liver disease and beyond. Curr Opin Gastroenterol 26:209–213

    PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Awori MN, Ogendo SW (2008) Rachs-1 system in risk stratification for congenital heart disease surgery outcome. East Afr Med J 85:36–38

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Blackstone EH (2002) Comparing apples and oranges. J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 123:8–15

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Boethig D, Jenkins KJ, Hecker H, Thies WR, Breymann T (2004) The RACHS-1 risk categories reflect mortality and length of hospital stay in a large German pediatric cardiac surgery population. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 26:12–17

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Bojan M, Gerelli S, Giovanni S, Pouard P, Vouhe P (2011) Comparative study of the Aristotle comprehensive complexity and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery scores. Ann Thorac Surg 92:949–956

    Google Scholar 

  • Budoff MJ, Shaw LJ, Liu ST, Weinstein SR, Mosler TP, Tseng PH, Flores FR, Callister TQ, Raggi P, Berman DS (2007) Long-term prognosis associated with coronary calcification: observations from a registry of 25,253 patients. Am Coll Cardiol 49:1860–1870

    Google Scholar 

  • Cox D (1972) Regression models and life tables. J R Stat Soc B 34:187–220

    Google Scholar 

  • Derby CD, Kolcz J, Kerins PJ, Duncan DR, Quezada E, Pizarro C (2007) Aristotle score predicts outcome in patients requiring extracorporeal circulatory support following repair of congenital heart disease. ASAIO J 53:82–86

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Epstein AJ (2006) Do cardiac surgery report cards reduce mortality? Assessing the evidence. Med Care Res Rev 63:403–426

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Harrell FE Jr (2001) Regression modeling strategies with application to linear models, logistic regression, and survival analysis. Springer, Berlin, Germany

    Google Scholar 

  • Higgins TL, Estafanous FG, Loop FD, Beck GJ, Blum JM, Paranandi L (1992) Stratification of morbidity and mortality outcome by preoperative risk factors in coronary artery bypass patients. JAMA 267:2344–2348

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S (2000) Applied logistic regression, 2nd edn. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs JP (2008) Databases and the assessment of complications associated with the treatment of patients with congenital cardiac disease. Cardiol Young 18(Supp.2):1–37

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs JP, Lacour-Gayet FG, Jacobs ML, Clarke DR, Tchervenkov CI, Gaynor JW, Spray TL, Maruszewski B, Stellin G, Gould J, Dokholyan RS, Peterson ED, Elliott MJ, Mavroudis C (2005) Initial application in the STS congenital database of complexity adjustment to evaluate surgical case mix and results. Ann Thorac Surg 79:1635–1649

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs JP, Jacobs ML, Mavroudis C, Maruszewski B, Tchervenkov CI, Lacour-Gayet FG, Clarke DR, Yeh T, Walters HL 3rd, Kurosawa H, Stellin G, Ebels T, Elliott MJ, Vener DF, Barach P, Benavidez OJ, Bacha EA (2006a) What is operative morbidity? Defining complications in a surgical registry database: a report from the STS congenital database task force and the joint EACTS-STS Congenital Database Committee. Ann Thorac Surg 81:1937–1941

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs ML, Mavroudis C, Jacobs JP, Tchervenkov CI, Pelletier GJ (2006b) Report of the 2005 STS congenital heart surgery practice and manpower survey: a report from the STS work force on congenital heart surgery. Ann Thor Surg 82:1152–1158

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs JP, Wernovsky G, Elliott MJ (2007) Analysis of outcomes for congenital cardiac disease: can we do better? Cardiol Young 17(Suppl 2):145–158

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs JP, Cerfolio RJ, Sade RM (2009a) The ethics of transparency: publication of cardiothoracic surgical outcomes in the lay press. Ann Thorac Surg 87:679–686

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs JP, Jacobs ML, Lacour-Gayet FG, Jenkins KJ, Gauvreau K, Bacha E, Maruszewski B, Clarke DR, Tchervenkov CI, Gaynor JW, Spray TL, Stellin G, O’Brien SM, Elliott MJ, Mavroudis C (2009b) Stratification of complexity improves the utility and accuracy of outcomes analysis in a multi-institutional congenital heart surgery database: application of the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) and Aristotle Systems in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Congenital Heart Surgery Database. Pediatr Cardiol 30:1117–1130

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs ML, Daniel M, Mavroudis C, Morales DLS, Jacobs JP, Fraser CD, Turek JW, Mayer JE, Tchervenkov C, Conte JV (2011) Report of the 2010 Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Practice and Manpower Survey. Ann Thor Surg 92:76276–76279

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs JP, Jacobs ML, Maruszewski B, Lacour-Gayet FG, Tchervenkov CI, Tobota Z, Stellin G, Kurosawa H, Murakami A, Gaynor JW, Pasquali SK, Clarke DR, Austin EH 3rd, Mavroudis C. (2012a) Initial application in the EACTS and STS Congenital Heart Surgery Databases of an empirically derived methodology of complexity adjustment to evaluate surgical case mix and results. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg. 42:775–779

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs JP, O’Brien SM, Pasquali SK, Jacobs ML, Lacour-Gayet FG, Tchervenkov CI, Austin EH 3rd, Pizarro C, Pourmoghadam KK, Scholl FG, Welke KF, Gaynor JW, Clarke DR, Mayer JE Jr, Mavroudis C (2012b) Variation in outcomes for risk-stratified pediatric cardiac surgical operations: an analysis of the STS Congenital Heart Surgery Database. Ann Thorac Surg. 94:564–71

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs JP, O’Brien SM, Pasquali SK, Jacobs ML, Lacour-Gayet FG, Tchervenkov CI, Austin EH 3rd, Pizarro C, Pourmoghadam KK, Scholl FG, Welke KF, Mavroudis C. (2011) Variation in outcomes for benchmark operations: an analysis of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database. Ann Thorac Surg. 92: 2184–91

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs ML, O’Brien SM, Jacobs JP, Mavroudis C, Lacour-Gayet F, Pasquali SK, Welke K, Pizarro C, Tsai F, Clarke DR (2013) An empirically based tool for analyzing morbidity associated with operations for congenital heart disease. Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 145:1046–1057

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs JP, Pasquali SK, Austin E. Gaynor JW, Backer C, Romano JCH, Williams WG, Caldarone C, McCrindle BW, Graham K, Dokholyan RS, Shook G, Poteat J, Baxi M, Karamlou T, Morris B, Blackstone EH, Mavroudis C, Mayer, Jr JE, Jonas RA, Jacobs ML (2014) Linking the congenital heart surgery databases of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) and the Congenital Heart Surgeons’ Society (CHSS): part 1—rationale and methodology. World J Pediatr Congenit Heart Surg 5:256–271

    Google Scholar 

  • Jenkins KJ (2004) Risk adjustment for congenital heart surgery: the RACHS-1 method. Semin Thorac Cardiovasc Surg Pediatr Card Surg Ann 7:180–184

    Google Scholar 

  • Jenkins KJ, Gauvreau K, Newburger JW, Spray TL, Moller JH, Iezzoni LI (2002) Consensus-based method for risk adjustment for surgery for congenital heart disease. Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 123:110–118

    Google Scholar 

  • Jin R, Furnary AP, Fine SC, Blackstone EH, Grunkemeier GL (2010) Using Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk models for risk-adjusting cardiac surgery results. Ann Thorac Surg 89:677–682

    Google Scholar 

  • Kang N, Cole T, Tsang V, Elliott M, de Leval M (2004) Risk stratification in paediatric open-heart surgery. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 26:3–11

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Kang N, Tsang VT, Gallivan S, Sherlaw-Johnson C, Cole TJ, Elliott MJ, de Leval MR (2006) Quality assurance in congenital heart surgery. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 29:693–697

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Lacour-Gayet F (2002) Risk stratification theme for congenital heart surgery. Semin Thorac Cardiovasc Surg Pediatr Card Surg Ann 5:148–152

    Google Scholar 

  • Lacour-Gayet F, Clarke D, Jacobs J, Comas J, Daebritz S, Daenen W, Gaynor W, Hamilton L, Jacobs M, Maruszsewski B, Pozzi M, Spray T, Stellin G, Tchervenkov C, Mavroudis C, Aristotle Committee (2004a) The Aristotle score: a complexity-adjusted method to evaluate surgical results. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 25:911–924

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Lacour-Gayet FG, Clarke D, Jacobs JP, Gaynor JW, Hamilton L, Jacobs ML, Maruszewski B, Pozzi M, Spray T, Tchervenkov CI, Mavroudis C, the Aristotle Committee (2004b) The Aristotle score for congenital heart surgery. Semin Thorac Cardiovasc Surg Pediatr Card Surg Ann 7:185–191

    Google Scholar 

  • Larrazabal LA, Jenkins KJ, Gauvreau K, Vida VL, Benavidez OJ, Gaitán GA, Garcia F, Castañeda AR (2007) Improvement in congenital heart surgery in a developing country: the Guatemalan experience. Circulation 23:1882–1887

    Google Scholar 

  • Larsen SH, Pedersen J, Jacobsen J, Johnsen SP, Hansen OK, Hjortdal V (2005) The RACHS-1 risk categories reflect mortality and length of stay in a Danish population of children operated for congenital heart disease. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 28:877–881

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Lee JW, Um SH, Lee JB, Mun J, Cho H (2006) Scoring and staging systems using Cox linear regression modeling and recursive partitioning. Methods Inf Med 45:37–43

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Magliola RH, Althabe M, Moreno G, Lenz AM, Pilan ML, Balestrini M, Charroqui A, Landry LM, Krynski M, Salgado G, Martin A, Barretta J, Garcia Delucis P, Cornelis J, Suarez J, Laura JP (2011) Congenital heart disease: surgical results in a public hospital in Argentina. [Engl. abstr., article in Spanish] Arch Cardiol Mex 81:178–182

    Google Scholar 

  • Mavroudis C, Jacobs JP (2000) International congenital heart surgery nomenclature and database project. Ann Thorac Surg 69(S1):1–372

    Google Scholar 

  • Mildh L, Pettilä V, Sairanen H, Rautiainen P (2007) Predictive value of paediatric risk of mortality score and risk adjustment for congenital heart surgery score after paediatric open-heart surgery. Interact Cardiovasc Thorac Surg 6:628–631

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Miyamoto T, Sinzobahamvya N, Kumpikaite D, Asfour B, Photiadis J, Brecher AM, Urban AE (2005) Repair of truncus arteriosus and aortic arch interruption: outcome analysis. Ann Thorac Surg 79:2077–2082

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Nashef SA, Roques F, Michel P, Gauducheau E, Lemeshow S, Salamon R (1999) European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE). Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 16:9–13

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Nashef SA, Roques F, Sharples LD, Nilsson J, Smith C, Goldstone AR, Lockowandt U (2012) EuroSCORE II. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 41:734–744

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Nilsson J, Algotsson L, Höglund P, Lührs C, Brandt J (2006) Comparison of 19 pre-operative risk stratification models in open-heart surgery. Eur Heart J 27:867–874

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Nina RV, Gama ME, Santos AM, Nina VJ, Figueiredo Neto JA, Mendes VG, Lamy ZC, Brito LM (2007) Is the RACHS-1 (risk adjustment in congenital heart surgery) a useful tool in our scenario? Rev Bras Cir Cardiovasc 22:425–431

    Google Scholar 

  • O’Brien SM, Jacobs JP, Clarke DR, Maruszewski B, Jacobs ML, Walters HL III, Tchervenkov CI, Welke KF, Tobota Z, Stellin G, Mavroudis C, Lacour-Gayet FG (2007) Accuracy of the Aristotle basic complexity score for classifying the mortality and morbidity potential of congenital heart surgery procedures. Ann Thorac Surg 84:2027–2037

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • O’Brien SM, Clarke DR, Jacobs JP, Jacobs ML, Lacour-Gayet FG, Pizarro C, Welke KF, Maruszewski B, Tobota Z, Miller WJ, Hamilton L, Peterson ED, Mavroudis C, Edwards FH (2009) An empirically based tool for analyzing mortality associated with congenital heart surgery. J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 138:1139–1153

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Overman D, Jacobs JP, Prager RL, Wright CD, Clarke DR, Pasquali S, O’Brien SM, Dokholyan RS, Meehan P, McDonald DE, Jacobs ML, Mavroudis C, Shahian DM (2013) Report from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Database Work Force: clarifying the definition of operative mortality. World J Pediatr Congenit Heart Surg World J Pediatr Congenit Heart Surg 4:10–12

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Padley JR, Cole AD, Pye VE, Chard RB, Nicholson IA, Jacobe S, Baines D, Badawi N, Walker K, Scarfe G, Leclair K, Sholler GF, Winlaw DS (2011) Five-year analysis of operative mortality and neonatal outcomes in congenital heart disease. Heart Lung Circ 20:460–467

    Google Scholar 

  • Parsonnet V (1995) Risk stratification in cardiac surgery: is it worthwhile? J Card Surg 10:690–698

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Pasquali SK, Hall M, Li JS, Peterson ED, Jaggers J, Lodge AJ, Marino BS, Goodman DM, Shah SS (2010) Corticosteroids and outcome in children undergoing congenital heart surgery: analysis of the Pediatric Health Information Systems database. Circulation 122:2123–2130

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenbaum P, Rubin DB (1983) The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55

    Google Scholar 

  • Sergeant P, de Worm E, Meyns B, Wouters P (2001) The challenge of departmental quality control in the reengineering towards off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 20:538–543

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Shahian DM, Edwards FH, Jacobs JP, Prager RL, Normand SL, Shewan CM, O’Brien SM, Peterson ED, Grover FL (2011a) Public reporting of cardiac surgery performance: part 1-history, rationale, consequences. Ann Thorac Surg 92(3 Suppl):S2–S11

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Shahian DM, Edwards FH, Jacobs JP, Prager RL, Normand SL, Shewan CM, O’Brien SM, Peterson ED, Grover FL (2011b) Public reporting of cardiac surgery performance: part 2-implementation. Ann Thorac Surg 92(3 Suppl):S12–S23

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Sinzobahamvya N, Photiadis J, Kumpikaite D, Fink C, Blaschczok HC, Brecher AM, Asfour B (2006) Comprehensive Aristotle score: implications for the Norwood procedure. Ann Thorac Surg 81:1794–1800

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Steinbusch PJ, Oostenbrink JB, Zuurbier JJ, Schaepkens FJ (1995) The risk of upcoding in casemix systems: a comparative study. Health Policy 81:289–299

    Google Scholar 

  • Tischendorf JJ, Hecker H, Krüger M, Manns MP, Meier PN (2007) Characterization, outcome, and prognosis in 273 patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis: a single center study. Am J Gastroenterol 102:107–114

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Tu JV, Jaglal SB, Naylor CD (1995) Multicenter validation of a risk index for mortality, intensive care unit stay and overall hospital length of stay after cardiac surgery. Steering Committee of the Provincial Adult Cardiac Care Network of Ontario. Circulation 91:677–684

    Google Scholar 

  • van Gameren M, Putman LM, Takkenberg JJ, Bogers AJ (2011) Risk stratification for adult congenital heart surgery. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 39:490–494

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Vijarnsorn C, Laohaprasitiporn D, Durongpisitku K, Chantong P, Soongswang J, Cheungsomprasong P, Nana A, Sriyoschati S, Subtaweesin T, Thongcharoen P, Prakanrattana U, Krobprachya J, Pooliam J (2011) Surveillance of Pediatric Cardiac Surgical Outcome Using Risk Stratifications at a Tertiary Care Center in Thailand. Cardiology Research and Practice ► http://dx.doi.org/10.4061/2011/254321

  • Welke KF, Shen I, Ungerleider RM (2006) Current assessment of mortality rates in congenital cardiac surgery. Ann Thorac Surg 82:164–170

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

Internet Sites

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Dietmar Boethig MD, PhD, MS .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2017 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Boethig, D., Jacobs, J.P. (2017). Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery. In: Ziemer, G., Haverich, A. (eds) Cardiac Surgery. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-52672-9_2

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-52672-9_2

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-662-52670-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-662-52672-9

  • eBook Packages: MedicineMedicine (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics