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From Game Theory to Complexity, Emergence and Agent-Based Modeling in World Politics

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Intelligent Computing Systems

Part of the book series: Studies in Computational Intelligence ((SCI,volume 627))

Abstract

Τhis chapter examines the complexity of world politics with an emphasis on global environmental issues. Concepts of game theory are reviewed and connected to international relations (IR). Game theoretic models found in IR, such as the prisoner’s dilemma, and global environmental negotiations, such as the North-South divide, are presented and discussed. The complexity of world politics, taking place on a highly interconnected global network of actors organized as agents and meta-agents, is presented and discussed as a multiplayer extension of game theory that should not be regarded as a theory alternative to realism but as a novel approach to understanding and anticipating, rather than predicting, global events. Technology, interconnections, feedback and individual empowerment are discussed in the context of the complex world of global politics. Furthermore, evolution and adaptation are related to the concept of fitness and how it may be approached for the case of actors in world politics. Finally, it is suggested that many events of world politics constitute emergent phenomena of the complex international community of state and non-state actors. The presentation is complemented with a review of research problems from the fields of social science, political science, defense, world politics and the global environment that have been successfully addressed with agent-based simulation, arguably the most prevalent method of simulating complex systems. This chapter concludes with a recapping of the main points presented, some suggestions and caveats for future directions as well as a list of software resources useful to those who wish to address global problems with agent-based models.

The last lesson of modern science is that the highest simplicity of structure is produced, not by few elements, but by the highest complexity.

—Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1847

… in place of the old local and national seclusion and self-sufficiency, we have intercourse in every direction, universal interdependence of nations.

— Marx and Engels, Communist Manifesto, 1848

Look, you’ve got it all wrong! You don’t NEED to follow ME, You don’t NEED to follow ANYBODY! You’ve got to think for your selves! You’re ALL individuals!

— From the “Life of Brian” movie (1979), http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0079470/quotes

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The author thanks Dr. T. Nadasdi and Dr. S. Sinclair for their online Spell Check Plus (http://spellcheckplus.com) that was used for proofing the entire document.

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  1. University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece

    John A. Paravantis

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  1. Dept of Informatics, University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece

    George A. Tsihrintzis

  2. Department of Informatics, University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece

    Maria Virvou

  3. Data Science Institute, Faculty of Scien, ce & technology, Bournemouth University, Adelaide, Australia

    Lakhmi C. Jain

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Paravantis, J.A. (2016). From Game Theory to Complexity, Emergence and Agent-Based Modeling in World Politics. In: Tsihrintzis, G., Virvou, M., Jain, L. (eds) Intelligent Computing Systems. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 627. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-49179-9_3

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