Abstract
This chapter explores the potential of geospatial analysis to characterize land use dynamics in urban areas and the surrounding urban fringe. It focuses on the difference between policy ambitions and reality with respect to urban densification. Policy ambitions for the containment of urban development are ambitious in the Netherlands, as is evident from the many local objectives to concentrate residential development within existing urban areas. These ambitions are formulated as target shares of the total net increase in housing stock that should be realized within designated urban area boundaries. Following a GIS-based analysis of local changes in housing stock between 2000 and 2008, we are able to describe actual intensification shares and residential densities in newly-developed urban areas. We observe that, especially in the already densely-populated western part of the country, the realized urban intensification shares are below the specified policy goals/ambition levels. Using these observations along with scenario-based projections of the regional increases in housing stock, we are able to determine the demand for new urban land in 2020. Using a land use simulation model, we simulate the urban development processes until 2020 according to two scenarios and two policy alternatives. In the first policy alternative, growth in the number of house units is based upon policy ambitions, while in the second scenario growth is based upon observed trends over the past decade. The results show that current policy ambitions related to urban intensification levels will greatly help in containing the substantial urban growth that is projected in the case of a high economic and population growth scenario. If urban development follows past trends, unabated, thus demonstrating relatively low urban intensification shares, large-scale urban extensions are likely to occur.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
The Netherlands has 40 COROP-regions. This administrative division is often used to represent statistical data and is identical to the European NUTS 3 division.
- 2.
References
Borsboom-van Beurden, J. A. M., Bakema, A., & Tijbosch, H. (2007). A land-use modelling system for environmental impact assessment. Recent applications of the LUMOS toolbox. Chapter 16. In E. Koomen, J. Stillwell, A. Bakema, & H. J. Scholten (Eds.), Modelling land-use change; progress and applications (pp. 281–296). Dordrecht: Springer.
CPB, MNP, & RPB. (2006). Welvaart en Leefomgeving. Een scenariostudie voor Nederland in 2040. Den Haag: Centraal Planbureau, Milieu- en Natuurplanbureau en Ruimtelijk Planbureau.
De Groot, H. L. F., Marlet, G. A., Teulings, C., & Vermeulen, W. (2010). Stad en land. Den Haag: Centraal Planbureau.
Dekkers, J. E. C., & Koomen, E. (2007). Land-use simulation for water management: application of the land use scanner model in two large-scale scenario-studies. Chapter 20. In E. Koomen, J. Stillwell, A. Bakema, & H. J. Scholten (Eds.), Modelling land-use change; progress and applications (pp. 355–373). Dordrecht: Springer.
Dekkers, J. E. C., Koomen, E., Jacobs-Crisioni, C. G. W., & Rijken, B. (2012). Scenario-based projections of future land use in the Netherlands. VU University, Amsterdam. Spinlab Research Memorandum SL-11.
DLG (2010) Natuurmeting op Kaart 2010. De realisatie van Ecologische Hoofdstructuur (EHS) en Recreatie om de Stad (RodS) op 1–1-2010. Dienst Landelijk Gebied, Utrecht.
DTZ Zadelhoff. (2011). Van veel te veel; De markt voor Nederlands commercieel onroerend goed. Utrecht: DTZ Zadelhoff v.o.f.
ECORYS. (2005). Maatschappelijke kosten en baten IBO Verstedelijking. Input voor Interdepartementaal Beleidsonderzoek. Rotterdam: ECORYS Nederland B.V.
Elings, C., Zijlstra, R., Koomen, E., & De Groot, S. (2011). Milieueffectrapport Ontwerp Structuurvisie Infrastructuur en Ruimte in opdracht van Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Milieu. Amsterdam/Nijmegen: Geodan/Royal Haskoning.
Evers, W., Vries, L., De Man, R., & Schotten, C. G. J. (2005). Woning- en populatiebestanden in het dataportaal. Overzicht van de basisbestanden, bewerkingen en kwaliteitsacties. Bilthoven: RIVM.
Hilbers, H. D., & Snellen, D. (2010). Bestendigheid van de WLO scenario’s. 500161003. Den Haag: Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving.
Hoymann, J. (2010). Spatial allocation of future residential land use in the Elbe River Basin. Environment and Planning. B, Planning & Design, 37(5), 911–928.
I&M. (2011). Ontwerp structuurvisie infrastructuur en ruimte; Nederland concurrerend, bereikbaar, leefbaar en veilig. Den Haag: Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Milieu.
IPCC. (2000). Emission scenarios. Special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Jacobs, C. G. W., Koomen, E., Bouwman, A. A., & Van der Burg, A. (2011). Lessons learned from land-use simulation in regional planning applications. Chapter 8. In E. Koomen & J. Borsboom-van Beurden (Eds.), Land-use modelling in planning practice (pp. 131–149). Heidelberg: Springer.
KBB. (2012). Digitaal Basisboek Bevolkingsdaling.Vragen en antwoorden voor gemeenten: Waarom is concurrentie niet verstandig? Kenniscentrum voor Bevolkingsdaling en Beleid. http://www.bevolkingsdaling.nl/Default.aspx?tabid=1286. Last accessed 27 Nov 2012.
Keers, G., Smeulders, E., & Teerlink, T. (2011). Onderzoek: Toekomst voor de stedelijke woningbouw? P15360. RIGO Research en Advies/Bouwfonds Ontwikkeling.
Koomen, E., & Borsboom-van Beurden, J. (Eds.). (2011). Land-use modeling in planning practice, Geojournal library, volume 101. Heidelberg: Springer.
Koomen, E., & Dekkers, J. E. C. (2013). The impact of land-use policy on urban fringe dynamics; Dutch evidence and prospects. In D. Czamanski, I. Benenson, & D. Malkinson (Eds.), Cities and nature (pp. 9–35). Berlin: Springer.
Koomen, E., Dekkers, J., & Van Dijk, T. (2008a). Open-space preservation in the Netherlands: Planning, practice and prospects. Land Use Policy, 25(3), 361–377.
Koomen, E., Rietveld, P., & De Nijs, T. (2008b). Modelling land-use change for spatial planning support; Editorial. Annals of Regional Science, 42(1), 1–10.
Koomen, E., Koekoek, A., & Dijk, E. (2011). Simulating land-use change in a regional planning context. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 4(4), 223–247.
Korthals Altes, W. (2009). Taxing land for urban containment: Reflections on a Dutch debate. Land Use Policy, 26(2), 233–241.
Kuhlman, T., Agricola, H. J., De Blaeij, A., De Hoop, J. G., Michels, R., Smit, A. B., & Vogelzang, T. A. (2012). Landbouw en recreatie in krimpregio’s: knelpunten en kansen. LEI-rapport 2012–001. Den Haag: LEI Wageningen UR.
Kuhlman, T., Diogo, V., & Koomen, E. (2013). Exploring the potential of reed as a bioenergy crop in the Netherlands. Biomass and Bioenergy, 55, 41--52.
Kuijpers-Linde, M. (2011). A policy perspective of the development of Dutch land-use models. Chapter 10. In E. Koomen & J. Borsboom-van Beurden (Eds.), Land-use modelling in planning practice (pp. 177–189). Heidelberg: Springer.
Longley, P., Batty, M., Shepherd, J., & Sadler, G. (1992). Do green belts change the shape of urban areas? A preliminary analysis of the settlement geography of south east England. Regional Studies, 26(5), 437–452.
Loonen, W., & Koomen, E. (2009). Calibration and validation of the Land Use Scanner allocation algorithms. Bilthoven: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
ND. (2012). Dossier Kerksluiting, Nederlands Dagblad. http://www.nd.nl/dossiers/kerk-en-religie/kerksluiting. Last accessed 30 Nov 2012.
Odijk, M., Van Bleek, B., & Louwerse, P. (2004). Begrenzing Bebouwd Gebied 2000. Den Haag: Ministerie van VROM.
PBL. (2010). Balans van de Leefomgeving. 500206001. Bilthoven: Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving.
PBL. (2011). Nederland in 2040: een land van regio’s. Den Haag: Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving.
RCE. (2012). Een toekomst voor kerken. Handreiking voor het herbestemmen van vrijkomende kerkgebouwen. Rijksdienst voor het Cultureel Erfgoed. In Ministerie van Onderwijs. Den Haag: Cultuur en Wetenschap.
Rijken, B., Bouwman, A., Van Hinsberg, A., Van Bemmel, B., Van den Born, G. J., Polman, N., Lindenhof, V., & Rijk, P. (2013). Regionalisering en kwantificering verhaallijnen Deltascenario’s 2012. Technisch achtergrondrapport. Den Haag: Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving/LEI Wageningen UR.
Roodbol-Mekkes, P. H., Van der Valk, A. J. J., & Korthals Altes, W. K. (2012). The Netherlands spatial planning doctrine in disarray in the 21st century. Environment and Planning A, 44(2), 377–395.
Seebus, J. (2012). Conversion gains ground – Slowly. Property EU (European Union), 4, 38–45.
Significance and Bureau Louter. (2007). Toepassen TIGRIS XL binnen de studie ‘Nederland Later’. Bilthoven: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
Statistics Netherlands. (2012). Statline, the central database of Statistics Netherlands. http://www.statline.nl. Last accessed 1 Aug 2012.
Te Linde, A. H., Bubeck, P., Dekkers, J. E. C., De Moel, H., & Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2011). Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11(2), 459–473.
Van der Hoeven, E. M. M. M., Aerts, J., van der Klis, H., & Koomen, E. (2009). An integrated discussion support system for New Dutch flood risk management strategies. Chapter 8. In S. Geertman & J. C. H. Stillwell (Eds.), Planning support systems: Best practices and new methods. GeoJournal library (pp. 159–174). Berlin: Springer.
Van Hoek, T., Koning, M. A., & Mulder, M. (2011). Succesvol binnenstedelijk bouwen. Een onderzoek naar maatschappelijke kosten en baten van mogelijkheden tot optimalisatie van binnenstedelijk bouwen. Amsterdam: EIB Economisch Instituut voor de Bouw.
Van Rij, E., Dekkers, J., & Koomen, E. (2008). Analysing the success of open space preservation in the Netherlands: The Midden-Delfland case. Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 99(1), 115–124.
VROM, LNV, V&W and EZ. (2004). Nota Ruimte. Ruimte voor ontwikkeling. Ministeries van Volkshuisvesting, Ruimtelijke Ordening en Milieubeheer, Landbouw, Natuur en Voedselkwaliteit, Verkeer en Waterstaat en Economische zaken. Den Haag: SDU uitgeverij.
Warbroek, B. (2011). Binnenstedelijk bouwen kan veel goedkoper, Binnenlands Bestuur. http://www.binnenlandsbestuur.nl/ruimte-en-milieu/nieuws/binnenstedelijk-bouwen-kan-veel-goedkoper.648361.lynkx. Last accessed 27 Nov 2012.
Zondag, B., & De Jong, G. (2005). The development of the TIGRIS XL model: A bottom-up to transport, land-use and the economy. Paper presented at the Economic Impacts of Changing Accessibility conference at Napier University (27–28 October). http://www.tri.napier.ac.uk/Events/Freight/Abstracts/zondagdeJong.pdf.
Zondag, B., & Geurs, K. (2011). Coupling a detailed land-use model and a land-use and transport interaction model. Chapter 5. In E. Koomen & J. Borsboom-van Beurden (Eds.), Land-use modeling in planning practice (pp. 79–95). Dordrecht: Springer.
Acknowledgements
This research is funded by the research programme Urban Regions in the Delta (URD), part of the VerDuS-programme (‘Verbinding Duurzame Steden’) of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). We would also like to thank the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency for providing spatial data that was incorporated in both the analyses and the simulations discussed in this chapter. Finally, we want to thank our colleague Ronnie Lassche for the construction of the basic layout of the simulation model used in this chapter.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Appendix 1: Empirical Analysis Results
Appendix 1: Empirical Analysis Results
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Koomen, E., Dekkers, J., Broitman, D. (2018). Analyzing and Simulating Urban Density Exploring the Difference Between Policy Ambitions and Actual Trends in the Netherlands. In: Thill, JC. (eds) Spatial Analysis and Location Modeling in Urban and Regional Systems. Advances in Geographic Information Science. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37896-6_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37896-6_7
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-37895-9
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-37896-6
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)