Abstract
Sea coasts are highly sensitive to on-going global environmental changes, such as accelerated sea level rise and intensification of extreme storm events. The protection of coastlines as a natural resource within the frame of a sustainable coastal zone management requires quantitative methods to estimate the coastal morphogenesis, including coastline change and sediment budget. In order to develop future scenarios based on the results of climate change projections, numerical models have to be developed and validated on a basis of historical data. Therefore, a quantitative method called Dynamic Equilibrium Shore Model (DESM) has been developed and validated to estimate the historical sediment mass budget and approximately reconstruct the historical Digital Elevation Model, with the primary concept of variable coastal profile shape, sediment mass conservation and inverse modelling. The governing equations for bed level change are connected with the sediment budget calculated by DESM, which provides the possibility projecting the coastline change of future sea level change scenarios. The reliability of future coastline scenarios depends on the input data provided by climate change modelling. For the area under investigation a projection time span of 100 years should not be exceeded for realistic estimations of future coastal morphogenesis.
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Deng, J., Harff, J., Dudzinska-Nowak, J. (2014). Quantitative Method on Historical Reconstruction of Coastal Geomorphological Change on Wave-Dominated Coast: A Case Study of the Pomeranian Bay, Southern Baltic Sea. In: Pardo-Igúzquiza, E., Guardiola-Albert, C., Heredia, J., Moreno-Merino, L., Durán, J., Vargas-Guzmán, J. (eds) Mathematics of Planet Earth. Lecture Notes in Earth System Sciences. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-32408-6_77
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-32408-6_77
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