Modelling the Costs of Autonomous Logistics

Abstract

Autonomous control strategies are a suitable concept in order to manage the dynamics of complex logistic systems in a decentralized manner. Previous research results show the advantage of autonomous control for scenarios in production logistics and in supply chain management. In each case, autonomous control was able to increase the flexibility, the robustness and the performance of the logistic processes if they were struck by unforeseen events, e.g. machine breakdowns. Researchers have already investigated the logistic performance behaviour of several specific autonomous control methods. Supplementary, they developed the Autonomous Logistics Engineering Methodology (ALEM) which enables logistics process experts to model autonomous logistic processes. Nevertheless, an additional economic analysis of such systems would be helpful in order to determine if and which deployment of an autonomous control system should be implemented. However, a method for such an economic evaluation is still missing. It should quantify the costs and benefits of a specific logistic process.

This contribution presents a model for the estimation of the costs of logistics control systems being mandatory in order to run autonomous logistic processes. Hence, it provides an essential contribution for the analysis of the costs and benefits of autonomous logistic processes. The model follows a life-cycle-approach including development and operation of autonomous logistic control systems, but excludes costs for maintenance and changes in the control system. It takes into account the costs for the control system infrastructure and determines cost objects in the application area of production engineering. Further, the authors employ the complexity-based concept of the Constructive Cost Model II. The costs of the control system infrastructure components are assumed as market prices. The applicability of the proposed cost model is demonstrated at a production logistic scenario in the apparel industry. For this purpose, the paper presents an exemplary production process of a Chinese apparel manufacturer and determines the costs that are induced by the autonomous control system. Hereby, the applicability and the limitations of the proposed cost model will be discussed. The contribution provides the first part of a cost-benefit-model for an economic evaluation of autonomous logistic processes.