Abstract
Forecasting, Foresight, and Anticipation are considered to be the basic components of Futures Studies. Forecasting deals with data extrapolation; Foresight with the visualization of possible futures; and Anticipation with the translation of their outcomes into action. The overall structure of Futures Studies comprises the differences between megatrend and exploration, risk and uncertainty, and complicatedness and complexity. Finally, the idea of Futures Literacy is introduced.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Amara, R. (1981). The futures field: Searching for definitions and boundaries. The Futurist, 15(1), 25–29.
Armstrong, J. S. (2001). Principles of forecasting. Dordrecht: Springer
Cuhls, K. (2003). From forecasting to foresight processes – New participative foresight activities in Germany. Journal of Forecasting, 22, 93–111. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.848.
de Jouvenel, B. (1967). The art of conjecture. New York: Basic Books.
Derbyshire, J. (2017). The siren call of probability: Dangers associated with using probability for consideration of the future. Futures, 88, 43–54.
Derbyshire, J., & Wright, G. (2017). Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation. International Journal of Forecasting, 33(1), 254–266.
Gary, J. E. (2009). Foresight styles assessment: Testing a new tool for consulting futurists. Journal of Futures Studies, 14(1), 1–26.
Hayward, P. (2003). Foresight in everyday life. Melbourne: Australian Foresight Institute.
Hines, A., Gary, J., Daheim, C., & van der Laan, L. (2017). Building foresight capacity: Toward a foresight competency model. World Futures Review, 9(3), 123–141.
Keynes, J. M. (1921). Treatise on probability. London: Macmillan.
Knight, F. H. (1921). Risk, uncertainty and profit. Boston: Hart, Schaffner & Marx.
Meadows, D. (1999). Leverage points. Places to intervene in a system. Retrieved from http://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/
Miller, R. (2007). Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method. Futures, 39(4), 341–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2006.12.001.
Miller, R. (2011). Futures literacy. Embracing complexity and using the future. Ethos, 10, 23–28.
Miller, R. (2018). Transforming the future: Anticipation in the 21st century. Paris/Oxford: UNESCO-Routledge.
Poli, R. (2016). Belief systems and the modeling relation. Foundations of Science, 21, 195–206.
Poli, R. (2017). Introduction to anticipation studies. Dordrecht: Springer.
Poli, R. (2019). Working with the future. Milan: Bocconi University Press.
Porter, M. E. (1996). What is strategy? In On competition. Boston: Harvard Business School.
Ringland, G. (1998). Scenario planning: Managing for the future. Chichester: Wiley.
Rohrbeck, R. (2010). Corporate foresight: Towards a maturity model for the future orientation of a firm. Heidelberg: Springer.
Rohrbeck, R., & Kum, M. E. (2018). Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 129, 105–116.
Rosen, R. (2012). Anticipatory systems. Philosophical, mathematical, and methodological foundations (2nd ed.). New York: Springer.
Schwartz, P. (1991). The art of the long view. New York: Penguin Random House.
Shackle, G. L. S. (1955). Uncertainty in economics and other reflections. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan. New York: Random House.
Tuomi, I. (2019). Chronotopes of foresight: Models of time-space in probabilistic, possibilistic and constructivist futures. Futures & Foresight Science. 1:e11. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.11.
van der Laan, L., & Erwee, R. (2012). Foresight styles assessment: A valid and reliable measure of dimensions of foresight competence? Foresight, 14(5), 374–386. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636681211269860.
Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10–21.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Section Editor information
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this entry
Cite this entry
Poli, R. (2020). Foresight. In: The Palgrave Encyclopedia of the Possible. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-98390-5_76-1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-98390-5_76-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-98390-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-98390-5
eBook Packages: Springer Reference Behavioral Science and PsychologyReference Module Humanities and Social SciencesReference Module Business, Economics and Social Sciences