Abstract
The bioenergy sector has been experiencing significant growth in the last two decades. That said, the industry faces many challenges, mainly focused around the understanding of feedstock supply risk. Developers and investors cannot properly price risk without raw material supply chain risk understanding, making the development of the bioenergy industry slower than it would otherwise be. Currently biofuel, or wood pellet, production in Ontario requires wood chips supplied by existing sawmills. The supply of wood chips in turn depends on the supply of timber. A model was developed here simulating the timber supply chain in Southern Ontario. The objective of the simulation was to show the applicability of computer simulation methods in determining the most resilient areas from a perspective of a developer looking to build a new biofuel plant. The simulation presented here, developed in AnyLogic 7.3.5, is considered a base simulation. That is, it can be improved upon to simulate different disturbances or add/change experiment assumptions. The simulation is therefore a first version of a useful tool that has a potential to improve the understanding of risk among biofuel developers and investors.
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Lewandowski, M., Asgary, A. (2018). Risk Assessment of the Timber Supply Chain in Southern Ontario Using Agent-Based Simulation. In: Qudrat-Ullah, H. (eds) Innovative Solutions for Sustainable Supply Chains. Understanding Complex Systems. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-94322-0_12
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-94322-0_12
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