Grey Forecasting Model for CO₂ Emissions of Developed Countries

Abstract

Global warming endangers our health, jeopardizes our national security, and threatens other basic human needs. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation is a high priority issue for most of the countries in the world. Carbon-dioxide (CO₂) is one of the most important GHG emissions, so prediction of CO₂ emissions is very important issue for the countries. On the purpose of predicting following years’ CO₂ emissions of seven developed countries; Australia, China, Italy, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States, grey forecasting method GM(1,1) which is suitable for solving uncertainty problems with less or lack of information is used in this study. Grey forecasting method is also widely used to forecast carbon emissions in the literature and generally, a few data are considered. The historical data of CO₂ emissions period between 2010 and 2014 is used to forecast the following four-year emissions, up to 2018. For the accuracy of the forecasting model, the post-ratio error (C) indicator is used which is one of the most widely used indicators for similar research. Using this model, some countries that already start to take precautions to decrease emissions could be check if they reach their target and mitigate the effects on climate change in their countries in a long term. This study can also be a counsellor or indicator for the countries that has not improved any environmental policy and chance to take into effect the precautions for their climate change plans. In other words, the methods proposed in this study can be used by countries to review their environmental policies and estimate their outcomes.