Skip to main content

Central Banks’ Communication Strategies: Just Words?

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Contemporary Issues in Banking

Abstract

This chapter assesses the communication strategies of the Federal Reserve (FED) and the European Central Bank (ECB), as well as their respective effectiveness. We explore the multi-dimensional aspects of the information embedded in more than 800 statements released by the heads of the EU and US central banks. Using tools from computational linguistics, we analyse the information released by these central banks on the state of economic conditions, as well as the guidance they provide about future monetary policy decisions. First, this chapter looks at some dimensions of the communication (tone, growth, ambiguity). Subsequently, we pay attention to the scenario’s impact on the communication strategies of the ECB and FED, assessing whether these strategies are influenced by certain variables that depict the scenario of the financial and real economy. Our results confirm the title of this chapter: most of the time, there is no significant difference between the communication strategy of the FED or the ECB, whether or not there is an improvement in the economic variables under consideration. We found that changes in communication strategy are mainly linked to changes in the health of the financial system.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 149.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    http://www.ecb.int/ecb/orga/transparency/html/index.en.html (last accessed on 29 June 2017).

References

  • Antweiler, W., & Murray, Z. F. (2004). Is all that talk just noise? The information content of internet stock message boards. Journal of Finance, 59, 1259–1293.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Apel, M., & Blix Grimaldi, M. (2012). The information content of central bank minutes. Working Paper Series 261, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

    Google Scholar 

  • Berger, H., De Haan, J., & Sturm, J.-E. (2006). Does money matter in the ECB strategy? New evidence based on ECB communication. CESifo Working Paper 1652.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blinder, A. S. (1998). Central banking in theory and practice. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blinder, A. S., Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M., De Haan, J., & Jansen, D. J. (2008). Central bank communication and monetary policy: A survey of theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(4), 910–945.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Born, B., Ehrmann, M., & Fratzscher, M.. (2010). Macroprudential policy and central bank communication. BIS Papers No 60.

    Google Scholar 

  • Born, B., Ehrmann, M., & Fratzscher, M. (2014). Central bank communication on financial stability. The Economic Journal, 124(577), 701–734.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunner, K. (1981). The art of central banking. Center for Research in Government Policy and Business, University of Rochester, Working Paper GPB 81-6.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bulíř, A., Šmídková, K., Kotlán, V., & Navrátil, D. (2008). Inflation targeting and communication: It pays off to read inflation reports. IMF Working Paper 08/234. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bulíř, A., Čihák, M., & Jansen, D.-J. (2013). What drives clarity of central bank communication about inflation? Open Economies Review, 24(1), 125–145.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carretta, A., Farina, V., Fiordelisi, F., Schwizer, P., & Stentella, F. S. (2015). Don’t stand so close to me: The role of supervisory style on banking stability. Journal of Banking and Finance, 52, 180–188.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dincer, N., & Eichengreen, B. (2007). Central bank transparency: Causes, consequences and updates. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 14791.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ehrmann, M., & Fratzscher, M. (2007). Communication by central bank committee members: Different strategies, same effectiveness? Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 39(2–3), 509–541.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ehrmann, M., & Fratzscher, M. (2009). Explaining monetary policy in press conferences. International Journal of Central Banking, 5, 41–84.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eijffinger, S. C. W., & Geraats, P. M. (2006). How transparent are central banks? European Journal of Political Economy, 22(1), 1–21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fligstein, N., Brundage, J. S., & Schultz, M. (2014). Why the federal reserve failed to see the financial crisis of 2008: The role of “macroeconomics” as a sense making and cultural frame. IRLE Working Paper No. 111-14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Geraats, P. (2002). Central bank transparency. Economic Journal, 112(483), F532–F565.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gerlach, S. (2007). Interest rate setting by the ECB, 1999–2006: Words and deeds. International Journal of Central Banking, 3(3), 1–46.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, S., & McMahon, M. (2016). Shocking language: Understanding the macroeconomic effects of central bank communication. Journal of International Economics, 99, S114–S133.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, S., McMahon, M., & Prat, A. (2014). Transparency and deliberation within the FOMC: A computational linguistics approach. CFM discussion paper series, CFM-DP2014-11. Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, S., McMahon, M., & Prat, A. (2017). Transparency and deliberation within the FOMC: A computational linguistics approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(2), 801–870.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayo, B., Kutan, A., & Neuenkirch, M. (2010). The impact of U.S. central bank communication on European and Pacific equity market. Economics Letters, 108(2), 172–174.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heinemann, F., & Ullrich, K. (2007). Does it pay to watch central bankers lips? The information content of ECB wording. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 3, 155–185.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hendry, S. (2012). Central bank communication or the media’s interpretation: What moves markets? Working Papers 12-9, Bank of Canada.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hendry, S., & Madeley, A. (2010). Text mining and the information content of Bank of Canada communications. Working Papers 10-31, Bank of Canada.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hernandez-Murillo, R., & Shell, H. (2014). The rising complexity of the FOMC statement. Economic Synopses, 23.

    Google Scholar 

  • Issing, O. (2005). Communication, transparency, accountability: Monetary policy in the twenty-first century. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 87(2), 65–83.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jansen, D. J., & de Haan, J. (2005). Talking heads: The effects of ECB statements on the Euro-Dollar exchange rate. Journal of International Money and Finance, 24(2), 343–361.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jansen, D.-J., & de Haan, J. (2009). Has ECB communication been helpful in predicting interest rate decisions? An evaluation of the early years of the Economic and Monetary Union. Applied Economics, 41, 1995–2003.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knütter, R., Mohr, B., & Wagner, H. (2011). The effects of central bank communication on financial stability: A systematization of the empirical evidence. Fernuniv.

    Google Scholar 

  • Loughran, T., & McDonald, B. (2011). When is a liability not a liability? Textual analysis, dictionaries, and 10-Ks. Journal of Finance, 66(1), 35–65.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loughran, T., & McDonald, B. (2014). Measuring readability in financial disclosures. Journal of Finance, 69, 1643–1671.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morris, S., & Shin, H. S. (2002). Communication and monetary policy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 18(4), 495–503.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Musard-Gies, M. (2006). Do ECB’s statements steer short-term and long-term interest rates in the Euro-zone? The Manchester School, 74(supplement), 116–139.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nelson, D. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59, 347–370.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reis, R. (2013). Central bank design. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 27(4), 17–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosa, C., & Verga, G. (2007). On the consistency and effectiveness of central bank communication: Evidence from the ECB. European Journal of Political Economy, 23(1), 146–175.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosa, C., & Verga, G. (2008). The impact of central bank announcements on asset prices in real time. International Journal of Central Banking, 4(2), 175–217.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rozkrut, M., Rybiński, K., Sztaba, L., & Szwaja, R. (2007). Quest for central bank communication: Does it pay to be “talkative”? European Journal of Political Economy, 23(1), 176–206.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stone, J. R. N. (1966). The social accounts from a consumer’s point of view. An outline and discussion of the revised United Nations system of national accounts. Review of Income and Wealth, 12(1), 1–33.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sturm, J.-E., & De Haan, J. (2011). Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB. Review of World Economics, 147.1, 41–58.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tausczik, Y. R., & Pennebaker, J. W. (2010). The psychological meaning of words: LIWC and computerized text analysis methods. Journal of Language and Social Psychology, 29, 24–54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tetlock, P. C. (2007). Giving content to investor sentiment: The role of media in the stock market. Journal of Finance, 62(3), 1139–1168.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tetlock, P. C., Saar-Tsechansky, M., & Macskassey, S. (2008). More than words: Quantifying language to measure firms’ fundamentals. Journal of Finance, 63, 1437–1467.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Winkler, B. (2000). Which kind of transparency? On the need for clarity in monetary policy-making. European Central Bank working paper no. 26.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodford, M. (2001). Monetary policy in the information economy. In Economic policy for the information economy (pp. 297–370). Kansas City: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodford, M. (2005). Central bank communication and policy effectiveness. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 11898.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Daniele A. Previati .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Appendix

Appendix

Table 5.7 Relevant literature

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2018 The Author(s)

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Farina, V., Galloppo, G., Previati, D.A. (2018). Central Banks’ Communication Strategies: Just Words?. In: García-Olalla, M., Clifton, J. (eds) Contemporary Issues in Banking. Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-90294-4_5

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-90294-4_5

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-90293-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-90294-4

  • eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics