Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Wind Field Deterministic Forecasting

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Wind Field and Solar Radiation Characterization and Forecasting

Part of the book series: Green Energy and Technology ((GREEN))

  • 598 Accesses

Abstract

Regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are nowadays integrated at resolutions between 1 and 3 km. They are non-hydrostatic models, generally run with explicit deep convection. These models have achieved a significant improvement on high-impact weather simulation comparing with synoptic scale models. Modeling at these scales needs big computer resources. Wind simulations are very sensitive to different features of the model: space resolution, orography representation, surface physiography, and flux exchanges between the surface and the atmosphere. Different formulations and parameterizations are followed to take into account all these topics depending on the stability and the surface properties. This chapter offers a snapshot of how HARMONIE-AROME model deals with these issues to derive a formulation for the 10 m wind.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Bechtold P, Bidlot J (2009) Convective gusts. ECMWF, Newsletter No. 119, pp 15–18

    Google Scholar 

  2. Beljaars A, Brown R, Wood N (2004) A new parametrization of turbulent orographic form drag. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 130:1327–1347

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Bénard P, Vivoda J, Maek J, Smolíková P, Yessad K, Smith C, Broková R, Geleyn J (2010) Dynamical kernel of the Aladin-NH spectral limited-area model: revised formulation and sensitivity experiments. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 136(646):155–169

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Bengtsson L, Andrae U, Aspelien T, Batrak Y, Calvo J, de Rooy W, Gleeson E, Hansen-Sass B, Homleid M, Hortal M et al (2017) The HARMONIE-AROME model configuration in the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP system. Mon Weather Rev 145(5):1919–1935

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Bougeault P, Benech B, Bessemoulin P, Carissimo B, Jansa A, Pelon J, Petitdidier M, Richard E (1997) PYREX: a summary of findings. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78(4):637–650

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Bougeault P, Binder P, Buzzi A, Dirks R, Kuettner J, Houze R, Smith R, Steinacker R, Volkert H (2001) The map special observing period. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82(3):433–462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Bougeault P, Mascart P et al (2009) The Meso-NH atmospheric simulation system: scientific documentation part iii: Physics. Technical Report CNRM. http://mesonh.aero.obs-mip.fr/mesonh/dir_doc/book1_m48_19jan2009/scidoc_p3.pdf

  8. Brousseau P, Berre L, Bouttier F, Desroziers G (2011) Background-error covariances for a convective-scale data-assimilation system: AROME-France 3D-Var. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 137(655):409–422

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Brousseau P, Seity Y, Ricard D, Lger J (2016) Improvement of the forecast of convective activity from the AROME-France system. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 142(699):2231–2243

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Bubnová R, Gwenaëlle H, Bénard P, Geleyn J (1995) Integration of the fully elastic equations cast in the hydrostatic pressure terrain-following coordinate in the framework of the ARPEGE/Aladin NWP system. Mon Weather Rev 123(2):515–535

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Calvo J, Lopez J, Martín F, Morales G, Pascual R (2009) In: 20th ALADIN workshop and HIRLAM all staff meeting. http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/aladin/IMG/pdf/poster_vientoklaus_final_asm10.pdf

  12. Calvo J, Morales G (2009) Verification of wind gust forecasts. In: 19th ALADIN workshop and HIRLAM all staff meeting. http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/aladin/IMG/pdf/ME_JC.pdf

  13. Cuxart J, Bougeault P, Redelsperger J (2000) A turbulence scheme allowing for mesoscale and large-eddy simulations. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 126(562):1–30

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Douville H, Royer J, Mahfouf J (1995) A new snow parameterization for the Météo-France climate model. Clim Dyn 12(1):21–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Ebert EE (2012) Forecast verification: issues, methods and FAQ. Technical Report WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research. http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification

  16. Georgelin M, Bougeault P, Black T, Brzovic N, Buzzi A, Calvo J, Cassé V, Desgagné M, El-Khatib R, Geleyn J, Holt T, Hong SY, Kato T, Katzfey J, Kurihara K, Lacroix B, Lalaurette F, Lemaitre Y, Mailhot J, Majewski D, Malguzzi P, Masson V, McGregor J, Minguzzi E, Paccagnella T, Wilson C (2000) The second compare exercise: a model intercomparison using a case of a typical mesoscale orographic flow, the PYREX iop3. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 126(564):991–1029

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Gustafsson N, Janjić T, Schraff C, Leuenberger D, Weissman M, Reich H, Brousseau P, Montmerle T, Wattrelot E, Buánek A, Mile M, Hamdi R, Lindskog M, Barkmeijer J, Dahlbom M, Macpherson B, Ballard S, Inverarity G, Carley J, Alexander C, Dowell D, Liu S, Ikuta Y, Fujita T Survey of data assimilation methods for convective-scale numerical weather prediction at operational centres. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc

    Google Scholar 

  18. Hamdi R, Masson V (2008) Inclusion of a drag approach in the Town energy Balance (TEB) Scheme: offline 1D evaluation in a street canyon. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 47(10):2627–2644

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Hortal M (2002) The development and testing of a new two-time-level semi-lagrangian scheme (SETTLS) in the ECMWF forecast model. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 128(583):1671–1687

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Jolliffe I, Stephenson D (2003) Forecast verification: a practitioner’s guide in atmospheric science. Wiley

    Google Scholar 

  21. Kuettner J (1986) The aim and conduct of ALPEX. Scientific results of the Alpine Experiment. Technical Report GARP Publications Series No. 27, WMO/TD 108, 314

    Google Scholar 

  22. Lascaux F, Richard E, Pinty J (2006) Numerical simulations of three different MAP IOPs and the associated microphysical processes. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 132(619):1907–1926

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Le Moigne P (2012) SURFEX. scientific documentation. Technical Report CNRM. http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/surfex/IMG/pdf/surfex_scidoc_v2-2.pdf

  24. Lenderink G, Holtslag AAM (2004) An updated length-scale formulation for turbulent mixing in clear and cloudy boundary layers. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 130(604):3405–3427

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Louis J (1979) A parametric model of vertical eddy fluxes in the atmosphere. Bound Layer Meteorol 17(2):187–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Mascart P, Noilhan J, Hervé G (1995) A modified parameterization of flux-profile relationships in the surface layer using different roughness length values for heat and momentum. Bound Layer Meteorol 72(4):331–344

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Masson V (2000) A physically-based scheme for the urban energy budget in atmospheric models. Bound Layer Meteorol 94(3):357–397

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Masson V, Champeaux JL, Chauvin F, Meriguet C, Lacaze R (2003) A global database of land surface parameters at 1-km resolution in meteorological and climate models. J Clim 16(9):1261–1282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Masson V, Le Moigne P, Martín E, Faroux S, Alias A, Alkama R, Belamari S, Barbu A, Boone A, Bouyssel, F, Brousseau P, Brun E, Calvet JC, Carrer D, Decharme B, Delire C, Donier S, Essaouini K, Gibelin AL, Giordani H, Habets F, Jidane M, Kerdraon G, Kourzeneva E, Lafaysse M, Lafont S, Lebeaupin Brossier C, Lemonsu A, Mahfouf JF, Marguinaud P, Mokhtari M, Morin S, Pigeon G, Salgado R, Seity Y, Taillefer F, Tanguy G, Tulet P, Vincendon B, Vionnet V, Voldoire A (2013) The surfexv7.2 land and ocean surface platform for coupled or offline simulation of earth surface variables and fluxes. Geosci Model Dev 6(4):929–960. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013. https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/6/929/2013/

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Masson V, Seity Y (2009) Including atmospheric layers in vegetation and urban offline surface schemes. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 48(7):1377–1397

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Navascués B, Calvo J, Morales G et al (2013) Long-term verification of HIRLAM and ECMWF forecasts over Southern Europe: history and perspectives of numerical weather prediction at AEMET. Atmos Res 125–126(Supplement C), 20–33

    Google Scholar 

  32. Pinty J, Jabouille P (1998) A mixed–phase cloud parameterization for use in mesoscale non-hydrostatic model: simulations of a squall line and of orographic precipitations. In: Conference on cloud physics, pp 217–220. American Meteorological Society, Everett, WA (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  33. de Rooy WC, de Vries H (2017) Technical Report HIRLAM Technical Report

    Google Scholar 

  34. Seity Y, Brousseau P, Malardel S, Hello G, Bénard P, Bouttier F, Lac C, Masson V (2011) The AROME-France convective-scale operational model. Mon Weather Rev 139(3):976–991

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Sheridan P (2011) Review of techniques and research for gust forecasting and parameterisation. Technical Report, Forecasting Research Technical Report 570, Met Office

    Google Scholar 

  36. Taillefer (2002) CANARI - Technical Documentation - Based on ARPEGE cycle CY25T1 (AL25T1 for ALADIN). In: CNRM/GMAP. http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/gmapdoc/spip.php?article3

  37. Wilks D (2011) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Academic Press

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. NWP Group of the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), c/ Leonardo Prieto Castro, 28040, Madrid, Spain

    Javier Calvo Sánchez & Gema Morales Martín

Authors
  1. Javier Calvo Sánchez
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Gema Morales Martín
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Javier Calvo Sánchez .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State University of New York, Albany, New York, USA

    Richard Perez

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Calvo Sánchez, J., Morales Martín, G. (2018). Wind Field Deterministic Forecasting. In: Perez, R. (eds) Wind Field and Solar Radiation Characterization and Forecasting. Green Energy and Technology. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76876-2_5

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76876-2_5

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-76875-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-76876-2

  • eBook Packages: EnergyEnergy (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation