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Demography, Migration, and the European Welfare State

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Abstract

Migration exists since there are people on Earth. Ever since, a part of those people not satisfied with their opportunities or who had to flee from war or persecution tried to find a better life somewhere else, if the circumstances allowed it. Today, global migration has reached a dimension that was considered unimaginable just a few years ago. The following chapter provides a picture of the role played by global population development and the current and future proportions of the world’s societies. Particular attention is paid to the welfare state of European character in the context of global migration movements.

The modern welfare state, one of the greatest achievements of the post-war twentieth century, finds itself on the crossroads. Falling birth rates and aging societies undercut the welfare state’s equilibrium. On the one hand, ever-larger sections of society have to be supported by the state; on the other hand, the pressure on the smaller working class is rising. Can immigration be the solution for Europe’s shrinking and aging societies and the European welfare state, or will it bring it to an end?

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Notes

  1. 1.

    http://www.profil.at/articles/1144/560/310762/weltbevoelkerung-nummer-7-000-000-000-310762. Accessed 11 Mar 2017.

  2. 2.

    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN. Accessed 11 Mar 2017.

  3. 3.

    Compare: Münz (2007), the 2013 update.

  4. 4.

    http://www.profil.at/articles/1144/560/310762/weltbevoelkerung-nummer-7-000-000-000-310762 Accessed 11 Mar 2017.

  5. 5.

    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN. Accessed 11 Mar 2017.

  6. 6.

    Again, the UN data (figures reported by the official governments of the member states to the UN) differ from data from other institutes. Here are two examples for a comparison: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm and http://www.berlin-institut.org/online-handbuchdemografie/bevoelkerungsdynamik/wachstum-der-weltbevoelkerung.html. Accessed 30 Dec. 2016.

  7. 7.

    Source: Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevölkerung https://www.dsw.org/unsere-themen/weltbevoelkerung/. Accessed 2 Feb 2017. Compare: UN World Population Prospects. http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/fertility.htm. Accessed 11 Mar 2017.

  8. 8.

    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=RU. Accessed 11 Mar 2017.

  9. 9.

    However, under certain circumstances the cultural and religious environment does matter. It can determine the number of children.

  10. 10.

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/. Accessed 15 Mar 2017.

  11. 11.

    This estimate also includes figures for the UK.

  12. 12.

    http://diepresse.com/home/ausland/eu/579379/EUKommission-empfiehlt-Pension-erst-mit-70-Jahren-. Accessed 15 Mar 2017.

  13. 13.

    http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/education-index. Accessed 2 Feb 2017.

  14. 14.

    http://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/zeitgeschehen/2017-07/migration-auswanderung-un-weltweit-anstieg. Accessed 16 Jul 2017.

  15. 15.

    http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Asylum_statistics/de. Accessed 7 Jan 2017.

  16. 16.

    German Minister of Finance, Wolfgang Schäuble, in an Interview. In: Finanznachrichten.de. http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2017-01/39783179-schaeuble-raeumt-fehler-der-bundesregierung-in-fluechtlingspolitik-ein-003.htm. Accessed 13 Mar 2017.

  17. 17.

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/sigmar-gabriel-spd-chef-will-kulturkampf-gegen-islamismus-a-1128842.html. 7 Jan 2017.

  18. 18.

    Ibid.

  19. 19.

    https://www.gapminder.org/ Accessed 7 Jan 2017.

  20. 20.

    Official reply of Austrian Minister of Justice Wolfgang Böhmdorfer to a parliamentary inquiry on 30 May 2016.

  21. 21.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/23/canada-syrian-refugee-resettlement-plan-no-single-men.

    http://diepresse.com/home/ausland/aussenpolitik/4874394/Kanada-nimmt-25000-syrische-Fluechtlinge-auf. Accessed 11 Mar 2017.

  22. 22.

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article128359819/Mehrheit-in-Deutschland-lehnt-Erdogan-Auftritt-ab.html. Accessed 15 Mar 2017.

    https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/erdogan-in-wien-ein-wahlkampf-in-der-eishalle/71.131.695. Accessed 15 Mar 2017.

  23. 23.

    http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/erdogan-rede-in-koeln-im-wortlaut-assimilation-ist-ein-verbrechen-gegen-die-menschlichkeit-1.293718. Accessed 28 Mar 2017.

  24. 24.

    http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2017-03/recep-tayyip-erdogan-kinderkriegen-europa-aufruf. Accessed 28 Mar 2017.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/06/turkish-president-erdogan-childless-women-deficient-incomplete. Accessed 11 Mar 2017.

  25. 25.

    EMNID Research, published in: Die Welt am Sonntag, 8 Jan 2017.

  26. 26.

    http://www.pewglobal.org/interactives/remittance-map/. Accessed 31 Aug 2016.

  27. 27.

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/wirtschaftspolitik/im-gespraech-dambisa-moyo-wir-afrikaner-sind-keine-kinder-1590670.html?printPagedArticle=true#pageIndex_2. Accessed 11 Mar 2017.

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2009/feb/14/aid-africa-dambisa-moyo. Accessed 11 Mar 2017.

  28. 28.

    Source: Deutsche Bundesargentur für Arbeit, December 2016. Compare: http://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/2016-12/wenige-fluechtlinge-arbeitsmarkt-jobs-andrea-nahles. Accessed 13 Mar 2017.

  29. 29.

    Schweriner Volkszeitung, 12 Jan 2017.

  30. 30.

    Austrias Home Secretary Wolfgang Sobotka on TV in “Report”, ORF 2 (2nd Austrian TV program), 30 Jan 2017.

  31. 31.

    Source: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-refugees-spend-20-billion-euros-2016-angela-merkel-crisis-budgets-middle-east-north-africa-a7623466.html. Accessed 12 Mar 2017.

  32. 32.

    https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2016/kw36-de-verteidigung/438550.

  33. 33.

    Source: https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/merkel-will-mit-tunesiens-premier-moegliche-fluechtlingslager-sondieren/246.009.237. Accessed 11 Feb 2017.

  34. 34.

    On February 4, 2017 in Vienna, Austria, according to police data 2000 Muslims demonstrated for the right to wear the Burka and other Islamic head covers in Austria without restriction https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/wien-muslime-demonstrieren-gegen-das-kopftuchverbot/244.794.253. Accessed 29 Mar 2017.

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Baar, W. (2018). Demography, Migration, and the European Welfare State. In: Kury, H., Redo, S. (eds) Refugees and Migrants in Law and Policy. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72159-0_1

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