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Using Bayesian Inference to Validate Plant Community Assemblages and Determine Indicator Species

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Modeling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics II (DGS 2014)

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Abstract

Recently, we described changes in plant community composition along gradients of anthropogenic disturbance, using a multinomial distribution in a Bayesian framework. Species were organized into categories (e.g. endemic, native, naturalized, invasive) and the proportions of each category in each community were represented by a multinomial vector. We now extend the use of the multinomial distribution to represent all the species in a community, individually, and use this approach to (i) validate plant community assemblages according to their specific composition, and (ii) determine indicator species for each community assemblage. Communities were assembled according to different models: null (all together); saturated (all separated); semi-saturated (only community replicates together); random (random assemblages); gradient (communities assembled in types along an ecological gradient). The models were calculated by using WinBugs and model fit was evaluated using Deviance Information Criterion (DIC). After the best community assemblage was found, we used Bayes rule to estimate the probability of a community, given the presence of a species, and compared the resulting indicator species with those determined by using conventional indicator values (IndVal). Both community assemblage and indicator species analysis gave good results when using two comprehensive plant community data sets for the Azores, i.e., a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance and an altitude gradient. Our method allows to (i) statistically validate plant community assemblages; and (ii) incorporate the prevalence of a plant community in the calculations pertaining to indicator species analysis.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. InBIO, Laboratório Associado, CIBIO - Pólo Açores, Departamento de Biologia, Universidade dos Açores, Ponta Delgada, Açores, Portugal

    Luís Silva & Flavie Le Jean

  2. CE3C Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes/Azorean Biodiversity Group, 9501-801, Ponta Delgada, Açores, Portugal

    José Marcelino & António Onofre Soares

  3. Departamento de Biologia, Portuguese Platform for Enhancing Ecological Research & Sustainability (PEERS), Universidade dos Açores, Ponta Delgada, Açores, Portugal

    José Marcelino & António Onofre Soares

Authors
  1. Luís Silva
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  2. Flavie Le Jean
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  3. José Marcelino
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  4. António Onofre Soares
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Luís Silva .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematics and LIAAD-INESC TEC, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal

    Alberto A. Pinto

  2. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA

    David Zilberman

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Silva, L., Le Jean, F., Marcelino, J., Soares, A.O. (2017). Using Bayesian Inference to Validate Plant Community Assemblages and Determine Indicator Species. In: Pinto, A., Zilberman, D. (eds) Modeling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics II. DGS 2014. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, vol 195. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-55236-1_21

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