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Coping with Higher Sea Levels and Increased Coastal Flooding in New York City

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Climate Change Adaptation in North America

Part of the book series: Climate Change Management ((CCM))

Abstract

The 837 km New York City shoreline is lined by significant economic assets and dense population vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal flooding. After Hurricane Sandy in 2012, New York City developed a comprehensive plan to mitigate future climate risks, drawing upon the scientific expertise of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), a special advisory group comprised of university and private-sector experts. This paper highlights current NPCC findings regarding sea level rise and coastal flooding, with some of the City’s ongoing and planned responses. Twentieth century sea level rise in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.7 cm/decade), underscoring the enhanced regional risk to coastal hazards. NPCC (2015) projects future sea level rise at the Battery of 28–53 cm by the 2050s and 46–99 cm by the 2080s, relative to 2000–2004 (mid-range, 25th–75th percentile). High-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) reach 76 cm by the 2050s, and 1.9 m by 2100. Combining these projections with updated FEMA flood return period curves, assuming static flood dynamics and storm behavior, flood heights for the 100-year storm (excluding waves) attain 3.9–4.5 m (mid-range), relative to the NAVD88 tidal datum, and 4.9 m (high end) by the 2080s, up from 3.4 m in the 2000s. Flood heights with a 1% annual chance of occurrence in the 2000s increase to 2.0–5.4% (mid-range) and 12.7% per year (high-end), by the 2080s. Guided by NPCC (2013, 2015) findings, New York City has embarked on a suite of initiatives to strengthen coastal defenses, employing various approaches tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC continues its collaboration with the city to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, including heat waves, inland floods and coastal storms. Current research entails higher-resolution neighborhood-level coastal flood mapping, changes in storm characteristics, surge height interactions with sea level rise, and stronger engagement with stakeholders and community-based organizations.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The area flooded by a storm with a 1% probability of occurrence per year, or average likelihood of occurrence of one per century.

  2. 2.

    Landward funneling of storm surge by southeast winds due to near right-angle geometry of New Jersey and Long Island shorelines.

  3. 3.

    Hurricane Sandy had weakened to a tropical storm and merged with a frontal system by the time it reached New York City.

  4. 4.

    Around ¼ to ½ stems from glacial isostasy-related land subsidence (NOAA 2015; PSMSL). http://www.psmsl.org/train_and_info/geo_signals/gia/peltier/index.php, posted August 13, 2012.

  5. 5.

    A tropical cyclone forms at low latitudes over warm ocean water, exhibiting low atmospheric pressures, strong winds, and heavy rains. Severe tropical cyclones are called hurricanes in the U.S. and Caribbean, typhoons in the Pacific Ocean, and cyclones in the Indian Ocean. An extratropical cyclone is a large-scale mid-latitude cyclonic storm, often associated with frontal systems.

  6. 6.

    The National Weather Service, NOAA, defines a nuisance flood in NYC as one in which water levels exceed 0.65 m above mean higher high water, MHHW. The specific threshold varies by city.

  7. 7.

    A-Zones within the 100-year floodplain exposed to wave heights under 1.5 ft (0.46 m).

  8. 8.

    V-Zones within the 100-year floodplain exposed to wave heights 3 ft (0.91 m) or higher.

  9. 9.

    An anchored island of floating material intended to deflect or minimize wave energy.

  10. 10.

    Local Law 42.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY, 10025, USA

    Vivien Gornitz, Radley Horton, Daniel A. Bader & Cynthia Rosenzweig

  2. Stevens Institute of Technology, Davidson Laboratory, Hoboken, NJ, 07030, USA

    Philip Orton

Authors
  1. Vivien Gornitz
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  2. Radley Horton
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  3. Daniel A. Bader
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  4. Philip Orton
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  5. Cynthia Rosenzweig
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Correspondence to Vivien Gornitz .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Life Sciences, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Hamburg, Germany

    Walter Leal Filho

  2. Graduate School of Design, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

    Jesse M. Keenan

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Gornitz, V., Horton, R., Bader, D.A., Orton, P., Rosenzweig, C. (2017). Coping with Higher Sea Levels and Increased Coastal Flooding in New York City. In: Leal Filho, W., Keenan, J. (eds) Climate Change Adaptation in North America. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-53742-9_13

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