Abstract
The evolution of social-economic systems is nonlinear, containing both periods of gradual changes and swift transformational upswings. Seven years after the end of the last crisis of 2007–2009, recovery rates of the US and European economies remain extremely low. One of the reasons is structural-economic crisis, requiring considerable time and substantial financial resources to overcome. By the start of the crisis, all developed economies of the world, particularly US economy, had well pronounced structural allometry with disproportionally high share of the financial and banking sectors.
In this paper we propose new approaches for the evaluation of structural shifts, based on the attractor theory, the use of proportionality factor and Wold-Mensch’ nonlinear model. Our results allow the construction of structural changes monitoring system and also demonstrated, that there always exist certain states in economic system, in which the volume of production (GDP) exceeds their empirical value. The proposed system for the monitoring of structural changes can be used not only for research purposes, but also for structural shift management.
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Notes
- 1.
Finite domain of unavoidable convergence of phase trajectories of complex system movement is called attractor in synergetic. Point (stable focus) or another system that is more complex can stay in the capacity of attractor.
- 2.
In the capacity of statistical base we used database from http:/www.oecd.org/statisticdata/
- 3.
Let us find solution of Eq. (5) with the aid of fsolve optimization function in proximity to P t P t known values.
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Yevsikov, I.A., Korovin, K.O., Sarygulov, A.I. (2017). Modern Trends in Evaluation of Macroeconomic Structural Changes. In: Devezas, T., Leitão, J., Sarygulov, A. (eds) Industry 4.0. Studies on Entrepreneurship, Structural Change and Industrial Dynamics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49604-7_5
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