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Variability of Flood Frequency and Magnitude During the Late 20th and Early 21st Centuries in the Northern Foreland of the Tatra Mountains

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Flood Risk in the Upper Vistula Basin

Part of the book series: GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences ((GEPS))

Abstract

Much of the flood risk in Poland is related to the Upper Vistula River Basin, and its right-bank tributaries on the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains significantly contribute to the total flood damage. Therefore, the question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods in this region have changed in the past decades is of high interest. This chapter focused on the inter-decadal variability of magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of floods since the mid-20th century using a multi-temporal approach in which trends are fitted to several combinations of start and end years in a record. The correlation between flood parameters and different large-scale climate indices for the Northern Hemisphere was calculated, as well as trends of intense precipitation indices, number of days with snow cover, cyclonic circulation types, air temperature and moisture conditions were calculated to explain the detected trends. Other potential external drivers, such as catchment and channel changes were also considered. Results show that floods in the area exhibit considerable inter-decadal variability, however, certain patterns are apparent. Less frequent floods, although perhaps more extreme, are now likely to occur, with a shift in the seasonality, decreasing flood magnitudes in winter and increasing during autumn and spring.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the project FLORIST (Flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains; supported by a grant from the Swiss Government through the Swiss Contribution to the enlarged European Union (PSPB No. 153/2010). Authors thank Professor Joanna Pociask-Karteczka for the revision which improved the early version of this chapter.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dendrolab.ch, Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 1+3, 3012, Bern, Switzerland

    Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva & Markus Stoffel

  2. Climatic Change and Climate Impacts, Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Boulevard Carl Vogt 66, 1205, Geneva, Switzerland

    Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva & Markus Stoffel

  3. Institute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, al. Mickiewicza 33, 31-120, Kraków, Poland

    Bartłomiej Wyżga

  4. Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia, ul. Będzińska 60, 41-200, Sosnowiec, Poland

    Bartłomiej Wyżga, Tadeusz Niedźwiedź & Ewa Łupikasza

  5. Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. Bukowska 19, 60-809, Poznań, Poland

    Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

  6. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, rue des Maraîchers 13, 1205, Geneva, Switzerland

    Markus Stoffel

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  1. Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva
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  3. Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
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Correspondence to Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Climate and Water Resource, Inst. for Agric. and Forest Environ, Poznań, Wielkopolskie, Poland

    Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

  2. Inst of Geological Sci, University of Berne, Geneva, Bern, Switzerland

    Markus Stoffel

  3. Depat of Climatology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice, Katowice, Poland

    Tadeusz Niedźwiedź

  4. Polish Academy of Sciences, Institute of Nature Conservation, Cracow, Poland

    Bartłomiej Wyżga

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Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Wyżga, B., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Niedźwiedź, T., Łupikasza, E., Stoffel, M. (2016). Variability of Flood Frequency and Magnitude During the Late 20th and Early 21st Centuries in the Northern Foreland of the Tatra Mountains. In: Kundzewicz, Z., Stoffel, M., Niedźwiedź, T., Wyżga, B. (eds) Flood Risk in the Upper Vistula Basin. GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-41923-7_11

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