Abstract
The post-Soviet period has been characterised by the abandonment of land across the Russian Federation. Today, Russia has regained a prominent role in wheat markets. With improved market conditions (such as higher grain prices), the recultivation of these abandoned areas may increase grain exports in the medium term and thus further enhance Russia’s contribution to global food security. This chapter develops a simple methodological approach that aims to assess the potential for Russia to expand its grain area and its impact on grain exports under different export price development scenarios.
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Notes
- 1.
htpp://vz.ru/news/2013/1/24/617280.html.
- 2.
For transport costs, see Annex 1.
- 3.
Grain crops include wheat, barley, maize, oats, millet, buckwheat, rice and legumes.
- 4.
The sample group comprised agricultural enterprises, which were operational during the period 2004–2007.
- 5.
We have considered the following 11 grain price variants (USD/tonne): 200, 220, 240, 260, 280, 300, 320, 340, 360, 380 and 400.
- 6.
The simulation results by region and for different export price variants are available in Uzun et al. (2014).
- 7.
The elevation capacity of Russian ports is currently 28 million tonnes (Novorossiysk: 13 million tonnes annually; Tuapse and Taman: 2.5 million tonnes each; Azovsk, Yeysk, Taganrog, Rostov-on Don: 6 million tonnes altogether; St Petersburg and Kaliningrad: 1 million tonnes each; Vladivostok, Nakhodka and other Far East ports: 2 million tonnes) (Sobolev 2013).
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Transfin-M. (2013). Average tariffs for transport per tonne of grain. http://www.transfin-m.ru/about/infocenter/news_line/349 (accessed 15 February 2013).
Liefert, W., Liefert, O., Vocke, G., & Allen, E. (2010). Former Soviet Union region to play larger role in meeting world wheat needs. Washington, DC: USDA Economic Research Service. http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2010-june/former-soviet-union-region-to-play-larger-role-in-meeting-world-wheat-needs.aspx#.VrBxRnmWfSg.
Rosstat. (2010). Rosstat database of agricultural enterprises, 2004–2007. Federal State Statistics Service.
Sobolev, O. S. (2013). Analiz sel’skokhozyaystvennykh tsen v pervom polugodii 2013 goda. In: Ekonomika sel’skokhozyaystvennykh i pererabatyvayushchikh predpriyatiy. N 9. p.51.
Uzun, V., Saraikin, V., Gataulina, E., Shagayda, N., Yanbykh, R., Mary, S., Gomez y Paloma, S. (2014). Prospects of the farming sector and rural development in view of food security: The case of the Russian Federation. JRC Scientific and Policy Reports No 26256 EN, Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission, Seville. http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC85162/final%20online%20jrc85162%20russia.pdf
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Annex 1. Cost of transport by railway from a regional railway terminal to a sea port (USD/tonne)
Annex 1. Cost of transport by railway from a regional railway terminal to a sea port (USD/tonne)
Russian Federation region | Sea port | Transport costs (minimum) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Novorossiysk | Azov | St Petersburg | Vladivostok | Tuapse | ||
Belgorod Region | 30.2 | 30.2 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 |
Bryansk Region | 41.7 | 30.2 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 |
Vladimir Region | 41.7 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 |
Voronezh Region | 30.2 | 25.8 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 30.2 | 25.8 |
Ivanovo Region | 41.7 | 30.2 | 25.8 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 25.8 |
Tver Region | 41.7 | 41.7 | 13.3 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 13.3 |
Kaluga Region | 41.7 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 |
Kostroma Region | 41.7 | 41.7 | 25.8 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 25.8 |
Kursk Region | 30.2 | 25.8 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 30.2 | 25.8 |
Lipetsk Region | 30.2 | 25.8 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 30.2 | 25.8 |
Moscow Region | 41.7 | 30.2 | 25.8 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 25.8 |
Oryol Region | 30.2 | 30.2 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 |
Ryazan Region | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 |
Smolensk Region | 41.7 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 |
Tambov Region | 30.2 | 25.8 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 30.2 | 25.8 |
Tula Region | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 |
Yaroslavl Region | 41.7 | 30.2 | 25.8 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 25.8 |
Arkhangelsk Region | 46.7 | 46.7 | 30.2 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 30.2 |
Vologda Region | 46.7 | 41.7 | 25.8 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 25.8 |
Kaliningrad Region | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 |
Leningrad Region | 46.7 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 46.7 |
Murmansk Region | 51.7 | 51.7 | 30.2 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 30.2 |
Novgorod Region | 46.7 | 46.7 | 13.3 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 13.3 |
Pskov Region | 46.7 | 46.7 | 13.3 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 13.3 |
Karelia Republic | 46.7 | 46.7 | 13.3 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 13.3 |
Komi Republic | 46.7 | 46.7 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 41.7 |
Krasnodar Kray | 13.3 | 13.3 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 13.3 | 13.3 |
Astrakhan Region | 30.2 | 30.2 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 30.2 | 30.2 |
Volgograd Region | 25.8 | 25.8 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 25.8 | 25.8 |
Rostov Region | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 51.7 | 13.3 | 13.3 |
Adygeya Republic | 13.3 | 13.3 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 13.3 | 13.3 |
Kalmykiya Republic | 25.8 | 25.8 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 25.8 | 25.8 |
Stavropol Kray | 13.3 | 13.3 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 13.3 | 13.3 |
Ingushetiya Republic | 25.8 | 25.8 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 25.8 | 25.8 |
Dagestan Republic | 25.8 | 25.8 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 25.8 | 25.8 |
Kabardino-Balkariya Republic | 25.8 | 25.8 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 25.8 | 25.8 |
North Osetiya Republic | 25.8 | 25.8 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 25.8 | 25.8 |
Karachayevo-Cherkessiya Republic | 13.3 | 13.3 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 13.3 | 13.3 |
Chechen Republic | 25.8 | 25.8 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 25.8 | 25.8 |
Nizhny Novgorod Region | 41.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 |
Kirov Region | 46.7 | 46.7 | 30.2 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 30.2 |
Samara Region | 41.7 | 30.2 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 |
Orenburg Region | 46.7 | 41.7 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 41.7 |
Penza Region | 41.7 | 30.2 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 |
Perm Kray | 46.7 | 46.7 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 41.7 |
Saratov Region | 30.2 | 25.8 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 30.2 | 25.8 |
Ulyanovsk Region | 41.7 | 30.2 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 |
Bashkortostan Republic | 46.7 | 41.7 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 41.7 |
Mariy El Republic | 46.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 41.7 |
Mordoviya Republic | 41.7 | 30.2 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 |
Tatarstan Republic | 41.7 | 41.7 | 30.2 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 30.2 |
Udmurtiya Republic | 46.7 | 46.7 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 41.7 |
Chuvashiya Republic | 46.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 41.7 |
Kurgan Region | 46.7 | 46.7 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 46.7 |
Sverdlovsk Region | 46.7 | 46.7 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 46.7 |
Tyumen Region | 51.7 | 46.7 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 46.7 |
Chelyabinsk Region | 46.7 | 46.7 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 46.7 |
Altay Kray | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
Krasnoyarsk Kray | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
Irkutsk Region | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
Kemerovo Region | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
Novosibirsk Region | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
Omsk Region | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
Tomsk Region | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
Zabaikalsk Kray | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
Buryatiya Republic | 51.7 | 25.8 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 25.8 |
Altay Republic | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
Tyva Republic | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
Khakasiya Republic | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
Primorsk Kray | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 13.3 | 51.7 | 13.3 |
Khabarovsk Kray | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 25.8 | 51.7 | 25.8 |
Amursk Region | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 41.7 | 51.7 | 41.7 |
Kamchatka Kray | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 |
Sakha (Yakutiya) Republic | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 46.7 | 51.7 | 46.7 |
Jewish Autonomous Area | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 25.8 | 51.7 | 25.8 |
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Saraykin, V., Yanbykh, R., Uzun, V. (2017). Assessing the Potential for Russian Grain Exports: A Special Focus on the Prospective Cultivation of Abandoned Land. In: Gomez y Paloma, S., Mary, S., Langrell, S., Ciaian, P. (eds) The Eurasian Wheat Belt and Food Security. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-33239-0_10
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