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Model-Based Reasoning in Crime Prevention

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Springer Handbook of Model-Based Science

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Abstract

Model-based reasoning approaches can be used to formalize and analyze (informal) theories from the field of criminology, to help gain more insight in criminological phenomena that were not clear based on just the informal theory. The analysis of the displacement of crime is an important research interest in criminological research. In this chapter, an agent-based simulation model of crime displacement is presented, which can be used not only to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of crime, but also to analyze and control those dynamics. Methods are used that are aimed at developing intelligent systems that monitor human-related processes and provide appropriate support. More specifically, an explicit domain model of crime displacement has been developed, and model-based reasoning techniques are applied to the domain model, in order to analyze which environmental circumstances result in which crime rates, and to determine which support measures are most appropriate. The model can be used as an analytical tool for researchers and policy makers to perform thought experiments, that is, to shed more light on the process under investigation, and possibly improve existing policies (e. g., for surveillance).

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Abbreviations

AI:

artificial intelligence

AmI:

ambient intelligence

CA:

cellular automata

GIS:

geographical information system

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Acknowledgements

This work previously appeared as: T. Bosse, C. Gerritsen: A model-based reasoning approach to prevent crime, Stud. Comput. Intell. 314159–177 (2010), Proc. Int. Conf. Model-Based Reason. Sci. Technol., MBR’09, ed. by L. Magnani, W. Carnielli

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement, De Boelelaan 1077a, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, Netherlands

    Charlotte Gerritsen

  2. Department of Computer Science, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1081, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, Netherlands

    Tibor Bosse

Authors
  1. Charlotte Gerritsen
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  2. Tibor Bosse
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Charlotte Gerritsen .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Humanities, University of Pavia, Piazza Botta 6, 27100, Pavia, Italy

    Lorenzo Magnani  & Tommaso Bertolotti  & 

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Gerritsen, C., Bosse, T. (2017). Model-Based Reasoning in Crime Prevention. In: Magnani, L., Bertolotti, T. (eds) Springer Handbook of Model-Based Science. Springer Handbooks. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-30526-4_50

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-30526-4_50

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-30525-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-30526-4

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

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