Evaluation of Local-Scale Models for Accidental Releases in Built Environments: Results of the Modelling Exercises in Cost Action ES1006

Abstract

A main research task of COST Action ES1006 is the evaluation of atmospheric dispersion models by their comparison against test data from qualified field and laboratory experiments and by a model inter-comparison. The model comparison and evaluation carried out for three test cases is presented, addressing the performance of the different modelling approaches, quantifying the scatter of results when different models are applied and assessing the effect of uncertainties.

Question and Answer

Questioner: S. Hanna

Question: In view of the uncertainties in modelled and observed wind and plume directions that you showed, shouldn’t we advise emergency responders that we are not sure which way the plume will go?

Answer: In the cases where modellers can rely on good quality input data (for example, in monitored industrial sites), we think that an information of the direction of the plume and the consequent affected areas can and should be given to emergency responders with a certain confidence, using adequately advanced and evaluated modelling tools. An estimation of the related uncertainty of the modelled affected area would add additional value, although this is at present typically not required by decision makers. The estimation of this uncertainty is an open and debated research field.