The Planning Fallacy: Consumers’ Unrealistically Optimistic Marketplace Expectations

Abstract

Consumers often hold confident beliefs that their marketplace activities will proceed exactly as planned, although in the past, such expectations have proven overly optimistic (Buehler, Griffin, and Ross 1994). How often have we stopped by a retail outlet intending to pick up only one or two specific items, only to be enticed to stay in the retail environment longer than we had planned? Even with years of practical experience, consumers are often overly optimistic when making their plans. Researchers have designated this the "Planning Fallacy" (Kahneman and Tversky 1979). It suggests that consumers may be fully aware of past planning errors, yet still be doomed to repeat them. Little previous research has considered the importance of individuals’ tendencies to be too optimistic when planning for shopping activities. The present manuscript discusses the Planning Fallacy Syndrome and its potential influence upon consumers’ planning processes.