Skip to main content

Modeling Daily Profiles of Solar Global Radiation Using Statistical and Data Mining Techniques

  • Conference paper
Advances in Intelligent Data Analysis XIII (IDA 2014)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNISA,volume 8819))

Included in the following conference series:

Abstract

Solar radiation forecasting is important for multiple fields, including solar energy power plants connected to grid. To address the need for solar radiation hourly forecasts this paper proposes the use of statistical and data mining techniques that allow different solar radiation hourly profiles for different days to be found and established. A new method is proposed for forecasting solar radiation hourly profiles using daily clearness index. The proposed method was checked using data recorded in Malaga. The obtained results show that it is possible to forecast hourly solar global radiation for a day with an energy error around 10% which means a significant improvement on previously reported errors.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Luque, A., Hegedus, S.: Handbook of photovoltaic science and engineering. John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Berlin (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Chang, T.P.: Output energy of a photovoltaic module mounted on a single-axis tracking system. Applied Energy 86, 2071–2078 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M.: Time Series Analysis forecasting and control. Prentice Hall (1976)

    Google Scholar 

  4. De Gooijer, J.G., Hyndman, R.J.: 25 years of iif time series forecasting: A selective review. Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  5. Brockwell, P.J., Davis, R.A.: Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting. Springer Texts in Statistics (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Brinkworth, B.J.: Autocorrelation and stochastic modelling of insolation sequences. Solar Energy 19, 343–347 (1997)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Bartoli, B., Coluaai, B., Cuomo, V., Francesca, M., Serio, C.: Autocorrelation of daily global solar radiation. Il nuovo cimento 40, 113–122 (1983)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Aguiar, R., Collares-Pereira, M., Conde, J.P.: Simple procedure for generating sequences of daily radiation values using a library of markov transition matrices. Solar Energy 4(3), 269–279 (1988)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Graham, V.A., Hollands, K.G.T., Unny, T.E.A.: A time series model for kt with application to global synthetic weather generation. Solar Energy 40, 83–92 (1988)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Aguiar, R.J., Collares-Pereira, M.: TAG: A time dependent autoregressive gaussian model for generating synthetic hourly radiation. Solar Energy 49(3), 167–174 (1992)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Mora-López, L., Sidrach de Cardona, M.: Multiplicative arma models to generate hourly series of global irradiation. Solar Energy 63, 283–291 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Perez, R., et al.: Forecasting solar radiation preliminary evaluation of an approach based upon the national forecast database. Solar Energy 81(6), 809–812 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Mora-López, L., Mora, J., Sidrach de Cardona, M., Morales-Bueno, R.: Modelling time series of climatic parameters with probabilistic finite automata. Environmental modelling and software 20(6), 753–760 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Viorel, B.: Modeling Solar Radiation at the Earths Surface. Recent Advances. Springer (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Guarnieri, R.A., Pereira, E.B., Chou, S.C.: Solar radiation forecast using articial neural networks in south brazil. In: 8 ICSHMO, INPE, Foz do Iguau, Brasil, April 24-28, pp. 1777–1785 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Heinemann, D., Lorenz, E., Girodo, M.: Forecasting of solar radiation, solar energy resource management for electricity generation from local level to global scale. Nova, Hauppauge (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  17. Mellit, A., Pavan, A.M.: A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected {PV} plant at trieste, italy. Solar Energy 84(5), 807–821 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Mora-López, L., Martínez-Marchena, I., Piliougine, M., Sidrach-de-Cardona, M.: Binding statistical and machine learning models for short-term forecasting of global solar radiation. In: Gama, J., Bradley, E., Hollmén, J. (eds.) IDA 2011. LNCS, vol. 7014, pp. 294–305. Springer, Heidelberg (2011)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  19. Koca, A., Oztop, H.F., Varol, Y., Koca, G.O.: Estimation of solar radiation using artificial neural networks with different input parameters for mediterranean region of anatolia in turkey. Expert Systems with Applications 38(7), 8756–8762 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Reikard, G.: Predicting solar radiation at high resolutions: A comparison of time series forecast. Solar Energy 83, 342–349 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Voyant, C., Paoli, C., Muselli, M., Nivet, M.-L.: Multi-horizon solar radiation forecasting for mediterranean locations using time series models. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 28, 44–52 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Bendt, P., Collares-Pereira, M., Rabl, A.: The frequency distribution of daily insolation values. Solar Energy 27, 1–5 (1981)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Iqbal, M.: An introduction to solar radiation. Academic Press Inc., New York (1983)

    Google Scholar 

  24. Jain, A., Murty, M., Flynn, P.: Data clustering: A review. ACM Computing Surveys 31(3), 264–323 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Duda, R., Hart, P., Stork, D.: Pattern classification. John Wiley & Sons (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  26. Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., Friedman, J.: The elements of statistical learning: Data mining, inference and prediction. Springer (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  27. Rohatgi, V.K., Saleh, A.K.M.E.: An Introduction to Probability and Statistics, 2nd edn. Wiley-Interscience (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  28. Bennett, N.D., Croke, B.F.W., Guariso, G., Guillaume, J.H.A., Hamilton, S.H., Jakeman, A.J., Marsili-Libelli, S., Newham, L.T.H., Norton, J.P., Perrin, C., Pierce, S.A., Robson, B., Seppelt, R., Voinov, A.A., Fath, B.D., Andreassian, V.: Characterising performance of environmental models. Environmental Modelling & Software 40, 1–20 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this paper

Cite this paper

Jiménez-Pérez, P.F., Mora-López, L. (2014). Modeling Daily Profiles of Solar Global Radiation Using Statistical and Data Mining Techniques. In: Blockeel, H., van Leeuwen, M., Vinciotti, V. (eds) Advances in Intelligent Data Analysis XIII. IDA 2014. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 8819. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12571-8_14

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12571-8_14

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-12570-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-12571-8

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics