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Conceptual Structure of Performance Assessments for Geologic Disposal of Radioactive Waste

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Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification

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Abstract

A conceptual structure for performance assessments (PAs) for radioactive waste disposal facilities and other complex engineered facilities based on the following three basic conceptual entities is described: EN1, a probability space that characterizes aleatory uncertainty; EN2, a function that predicts consequences for individual elements of the sample space for aleatory uncertainty; and EN3, a probability space that characterizes epistemic uncertainty. This structure provides a basis for (i) a separation of the effects and implications of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty; (ii) the design, computational implementation, and documentation of a PA for a complex system; and (iii) informative uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The implementation of this structure is illustrated with results from PAs for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant for transuranic radioactive waste and the proposed Yucca Mountain repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Thermal Sciences and Engineering Department, Sandia National Laboratories, 87185-0748, Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Jon C. Helton

  2. Photovoltaics and Distributed Systems Department, Sandia National Laboratories, 87185-1033, Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Clifford W. Hansen

  3. Applied Systems Analysis and Research Department, Sandia National Laboratories, 87185-0747, Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Cédric J. Salaberry

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  1. Jon C. Helton
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  3. Cédric J. Salaberry
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA

    Roger Ghanem

  2. Social and Decision Analytics Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech University, Arlington, Virginia, USA

    David Higdon

  3. Computing and Mathematical Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA

    Houman Owhadi

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Helton, J.C., Hansen, C.W., Salaberry, C.J. (2017). Conceptual Structure of Performance Assessments for Geologic Disposal of Radioactive Waste. In: Ghanem, R., Higdon, D., Owhadi, H. (eds) Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12385-1_46

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