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Modelling the Implications of Temperature on the Life Cycle of Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes

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Ecological Modelling Applied to Entomology

Part of the book series: Entomology in Focus ((ENFO,volume 1))

Abstract

Dengue is an infectious disease that is transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Each stage of the life cycle is influenced by climate variation. The transmission of the dengue virus can be related to increased mosquito survival due to rain and temperature conditions that are optimal for the mosquito’s maturation. The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model to study how temperature influences each stage of the mosquito’s life cycle dynamics by representing transitions and death rates as an explicit function of temperature. The model is thus able to show the influence of temperature on dengue transmission. It can also be used as an operational tool due to its simplicity regarding data requirements and computational effort. The model demonstrates that an expected increase in global temperature will influence the mosquito’s life cycle and, consequently, increase the incidence of dengue cases in areas that were previously free from the disease.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Provided by NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado USA http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by a grant from LIM01-HCFMUSP, CNPq and FAPESP. M. R. thanks the CNPq and L. O. thanks FAPESP for fellowship awards.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. LIM01 – HCFMUSP, School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil

    Marcelo Margon Rossi, Lêuda Ólivêr & Eduardo Massad

  2. Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK

    Eduardo Massad

Authors
  1. Marcelo Margon Rossi
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  2. Lêuda Ólivêr
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  3. Eduardo Massad
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Correspondence to Marcelo Margon Rossi .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Estadual Paulista Departamento de Bioestatistica, Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil

    Cláudia P. Ferreira

  2. Escola Superior de Agricultura, “Luiz de Queiroz”,, Universidade de São Paulo Dept. de Entomologia e Acarologia, Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil

    Wesley A.C Godoy

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Rossi, M.M., Ólivêr, L., Massad, E. (2014). Modelling the Implications of Temperature on the Life Cycle of Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes. In: Ferreira, C., Godoy, W. (eds) Ecological Modelling Applied to Entomology. Entomology in Focus, vol 1. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-06877-0_4

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