Abstract
We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the underlying contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and can move on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1) during the 2009/2010 season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters.
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Notes
- 1.
It is worth to notice that the probability to move an individual from the site 1 to a randomly chosen nearest neighbor site 2 is given by the probability that 2 is empty times T(1→2), where the first term favours spacing and the second one instead crowding.
- 2.
Our data do not change significantly varying \(\bar{T}_{\rm inf}\) and \(\sigma_{\rm inf}\), provided that \(\bar{T}_{\rm inf}\gg \bar{T}_{s}\). This is consistent with the fact that the number of contagions during the stopping period is negligible with respect to those happening before the stopping (see the high frequency of contagions with generation time ≤0.5 days in Fig. 84.2).
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Liccardo, A., Fierro, A. (2013). A Stochastic Lattice-Gas Model for Influenza Spreading. In: Gilbert, T., Kirkilionis, M., Nicolis, G. (eds) Proceedings of the European Conference on Complex Systems 2012. Springer Proceedings in Complexity. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-00395-5_84
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-00395-5_84
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
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