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Data-Driven Spatiotemporal Assessment of Seismicity in the Philippine Region

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Recent Developments in Earthquake Seismology

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Abstract

The present study provides a retrospective analysis of the geographical and chronological fluctuations of three basic statistical characteristics of seismicity using a big dataset of events that occurred between 1940 and 2022 in the Philippine region. For determining the spatial-time changes in a-value (seismic activity), b-value (recurrence graph slope), and z-value, the contemporary expanded software package ZMAP with numerous sophisticated seismological functions for earthquake catalog analysis is employed (parameter of the relative seismic quiescence). For the various statistical interpretations, catalog data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) occurred in spatial windows 0° N – 20° N and 118°E – 130oN are used. The overall conclusion is that unusually low b-values and high z-values, which define zones of comparatively seismic quiescence, may be a signal of the approaching release of more severe stress in areas near zones of relatively high a-values. Thus, the suggested joint interpretation of the spatial-time fluctuations of these three statistical characteristics of seismicity may be seen as a form of the predictor of the more powerful recent seismic occurrences in the region. Furthermore, the occurrence probability of a seven magnitude event is near about one with a return period of 2 years.

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Data and Resources

The catalog of earthquake events from 1940 to 2022 used in this study is obtained from USGS using the Zmap 7.0 tool in MATLAB version R2019a. All the maps and graphs are plotted using Zmap.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geophysics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India

    Amritansh Rai, Rohtash Kumar, Ankit Singh, Pankhudi Thakur, Raghav Singh & S. P. Maurya

  2. Department of Computer Science and System Engineering, Universidad Católica del Norte, Antofagasta, Chile

    Ranjit Das

Authors
  1. Amritansh Rai
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  2. Rohtash Kumar
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  3. Ankit Singh
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  4. Pankhudi Thakur
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  5. Raghav Singh
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  6. S. P. Maurya
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  7. Ranjit Das
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to S. P. Maurya .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India

    Rohtash Kumar

  2. Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India

    Raghav Singh

  3. Veer Bahadur Singh Purvanchal University, Jaunpur, India

    Shyam Kanhaiya

  4. Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India

    Satya Prakash Maurya

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Rai, A. et al. (2024). Data-Driven Spatiotemporal Assessment of Seismicity in the Philippine Region. In: Kumar, R., Singh, R., Kanhaiya, S., Maurya, S.P. (eds) Recent Developments in Earthquake Seismology. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-47538-2_11

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