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Snow Avalanche Hazard Prediction Using the Best-Worst Method—Case Study: The Šar Mountains, Serbia

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Advances in Best-Worst Method (BWM 2023)

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Abstract

Snow avalanches are one of the most frequent natural hazards in high mountain regions. In this study, a map of the susceptibility of the Šar Mountains to snow avalanches was determined. The study area is located in the southern part of Serbia, which has the Status of a National park. Geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing are used to analysis and cartographical presentation of nine the most important elements of natural conditions which have an influence on avalanche development. Then, by applying the best-worst method (BWM) for each of the criteria was given a weighting coefficient depending on its importance for the avalanche occurrence. A synthetic map of snow avalanche susceptibility was created by processing geospatial data in the GIS software. The obtained results show that high susceptibility covers 16.9% of the territory, while 10.7% of the total area is very highly susceptible. The final results may be useful to decision-makers, local self-governments, emergency management services, and mountaineering services to mitigate human and material losses from snow avalanches. This study is the first to use the BWM methodology for snow avalanche hazard analysis.

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Funding

The study was supported by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (Contract number 451–03–68/2022–14/200091).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski Trg 3/3, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia

    Uroš Durlević, Ivan Novković, Miroljub Milinčić, Aleksandar Valjarević & Nina Čegar

  2. Faculty of Technical Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 6, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia

    Senka Bajić

  3. Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia

    Tin Lukić

Authors
  1. Uroš Durlević
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  2. Ivan Novković
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  3. Senka Bajić
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  4. Miroljub Milinčić
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  5. Aleksandar Valjarević
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  6. Nina Čegar
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  7. Tin Lukić
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Correspondence to Uroš Durlević .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands

    Jafar Rezaei

  2. Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Trento, Trento, Italy

    Matteo Brunelli

  3. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU Amsterdam), Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Majid Mohammadi

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Durlević, U. et al. (2023). Snow Avalanche Hazard Prediction Using the Best-Worst Method—Case Study: The Šar Mountains, Serbia. In: Rezaei, J., Brunelli, M., Mohammadi, M. (eds) Advances in Best-Worst Method. BWM 2023. Lecture Notes in Operations Research. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-40328-6_12

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