Abstract
In this work, we propose a catastrophe modeling approach to flood and earthquake risk assessment for residential buildings in Italy. This work aims at supporting governors in the definition of a natural risk management strategy. To detect the critical areas of the territory, we compute expected losses per square meter, per municipality, and per structural typology. Our approach allows us to identify the areas where the exposure strongly affects the risk due to the high inhabited density or the presence of fragile buildings. This information is of major relevance for disaster risk reduction. We find that earthquakes in Italy generate annual expected losses approximately equal to \(6234.67\) million Euros, while flood expected losses amount to about \(875.90\) million Euros per year. Although earthquakes produce the highest expected losses at the national level, flood losses per square meter often exceed the corresponding earthquake ones.
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Notes
- 1.
In more detail, if one denotes by X the random variable whole realization is the PGA, then one defines \(P \left (LS \vert PGA \right )\) as follows:
$$\displaystyle \begin{aligned} P \left(LS \vert PGA \right)=\lim_{\varepsilon \to 0^+} \frac{P \left(LS \vert PGA-\varepsilon \leq X \leq PGA + \varepsilon \right)}{P \left(PGA-\varepsilon \leq X \leq PGA + \varepsilon \right)}\,. \end{aligned}$$ - 2.
Law n. 64, 2 Feb 1974 “Provvedimenti per le costruzioni con particolari prescrizioni per le zone sismiche”.
- 3.
O.P.C.M. 3274 2003 “Primi elementi in materia di criteri generali per la classificazione sismica del territorio nazionale e di normative tecniche per le costruzioni in zona sismica”.
- 4.
We assume a linear relationship between structural damages and monetary losses, likewise in [5]. The reader can refer to that reference for a discussion about the linearity assumption, and about the possibility to generalize it to the nonlinear case.
- 5.
Index P3 is not available for the entire Italian territory: data are missing for part of the Marche and Emilia-Romagna Regions.
- 6.
See [6], p. 35.
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Perazzini, S., Gnecco, G., Pammolli, F. (2023). Natural Risk Assessment of Italian Municipalities for Residential Insurance. In: Kitsos, C.P., Oliveira, T.A., Pierri, F., Restaino, M. (eds) Statistical Modelling and Risk Analysis. ICRA 2022. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, vol 430. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-39864-3_11
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