Abstract
Sadovnichy et al. present this chapter as an introductory one to the Mathematical Part which consists of nine chapters, including the present one. In the present chapter, Sadovnichy et al. explain the design of the Mathematical Part, which mathematical apparatus is used, how the chapters and conclusions of this part are connected with those in the previous chapters of the present report, etc. Sadovnichy et al. also show what this Mathematical Part is about, why it is needed, how it is organized, and so on. The Mathematical Part of the present Report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome mostly presents results of mathematical modeling of various aspects of historical, present, and future reality and forecasts, but it also includes important verbal qualitative sections. Its necessity is dictated by the fact that, although in the previous parts of the present report, Sadovnichy et al. have realized most of its goals, however, in order for its conclusions to become more convincing and scientific, they must also be supported by logical and mathematical modeling. This Mathematical Part is called “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics—from Agrarian to Cybernetic W-Society.” This name reflects its structure, since the chapters of this part consider social systems of the past, present, and future. On the other hand, it implements important methodological assumptions. In accordance with these assumptions, the objects of research and modeling in the Mathematical Part are the basic processes (including social and political ones) that determine features of interaction between various spheres of life at respective phases of historical development. The logic of the Mathematical Part leads us from ancient societies to modern and future ones, through understanding how phase transitions occur from one type of society to another, and allows us to make forecasts about the future society. The chapters of this part demonstrate how we see the combining of the world systems, historical and evolutionary approaches, a systematic view of society, and mathematical modeling within a single research program.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
See Chapter “Introduction. Hoping for the Future” (Sadovnichy et al., 2023, this volume).
- 2.
See Chapter “Introduction. Hoping for the Future” (Sadovnichy et al., 2023, this volume).
- 3.
The present chapter.
- 4.
See Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023, this volume).
- 5.
See Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Agrarian Society” (Malkov et al., 2023, this volume)
- 6.
See Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Industrial Society” (Akaev et al., 2023, this volume).
- 7.
See Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Global Phase Transitions” (Malkov et al., 2023, this volume).
- 8.
See Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Modern Society and Problems of Global Transition” (Akaev et al., 2023, this volume).
- 9.
See Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Africa’s Futures” (Korotayev et al., 2023, this volume).
- 10.
See Chapter “Analyzing Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Future Cybernetic W-Society: Socio-Political Aspects” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023a, this volume).
- 11.
See Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Life Quality Index” (Malkov et al., 2023, this volume).
- 12.
References
Akaev, A., Malkov, S., Bilyuga, S., Malkov, A., Musieva, J., & Korotayev, A. (2023a). Modeling social self-organization and historical dynamics. A general approach. In V. Sadovnichy et al. (Eds.), Reconsidering the limits to growth. A report to the Russian association of the Club of Rome (pp. 253–307). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_15
Akaev, A., Malkov, S., Davydova, O., Kovaleva, N., Malkov, A., Grinin, L., & Korotayev, A. (2023b). Modeling social self-organization and historical dynamics. industrial society. In V. Sadovnichy et al. (Eds.), Reconsidering the limits to growth. A report to the Russian association of the Club of Rome (pp. 337–385). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999_17
Akaev, A., Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Bilyuga, S., Davydova, O., Grinin, A., Kovaleva, N., Malkov, A., Musieva, J., & Korotayev, A. (2023c). Modeling social self-organization and historical dynamics. Modern society and a look into the global futures: Cybernetic W-society. In V. Sadovnichy et al. (Eds.), Reconsidering the limits to growth. A report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome (pp. 419–460). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_19
Chernavsky, D. (2001). Sinergetika i informatsiya: dinamicheskaya teoriya informatsii. Nauka.
Dubovsky, S. (1995). The Kondratiev cycle as an object of modelling. Matematicheskoe modelirovanie, 7(6), 65–74.
Dubovsky, S. (2004). Raspredeleniye energii i dokhodov v ekonomicheskom razvitii. matematicheskiye modeli. ROKHOS.
Dubovsky, S. (2010). Systems analysis and global sustainable development. In Global Security and International Political Economy–Volume II (p. 235).
Forrester, J. W. (1971). World dynamics. Wright-Allen Press.
Forrester, J. W. (1975). Collected papers of Jay W. Forrester. Pegasus Communications.
Forrester, J. W. (1984). Principes des systèmes (Science des systèmes. Série Dynamique des systèmes). Presses universitaires de Lyon.
Gelovani, V., & Dubovsky, S. (1990). Global modeling of the potential world system. International Political Science Review, 11, 207–218. https://doi.org/10.1177/019251219001100205
Gelovani, V., Britkov, V., & Dubovsky, S. (2009). SSSR i Rossiya v global′noy sisteme (1985-2030 gg.). Rezul′taty global′nogo modelirovaniya. Librokom.
Gelovani, V., Dubovsky, S., & Yurchenko, V. (1979). Methodological problems in global models. SIMULATION, 33, 19–23.
Gelovani, V., Egorov, V., Mitrofanov, V., & Piontkovskii, A. (1975). A certain control problem in the Forrester global dynamic model. Soviet Physics Doklady, 20, 19–25.
Gelovani, V., Kurakin, P., Malinetskii, G., & Makhov, S. (2005). Steady-state solutions in a modified Forrester model. Doklady Mathematics, 71(2), 186–188.
Gorshkov, V. (1987). Predely ustoychivosti biosfery i okruzhayushchey sredy. LIYaF.
Gorshkov, V. (1995). Fizicheskiye i biologicheskiye osnovy ustoychivosti zhizni. VINITI.
Gorshkov, V. (2012). Physical and biological bases of life stability: Man, biota, Environment. Springer.
Gorshkov, V., Makarieva, A., & Gorshkov, V. V. (2000). Biotic regulation of the environment: Key issues of global Change. Springer.
Gorshkov, V., Makarieva, A., & Gorshkov, V. V. (2004). Revising the fundamentals of ecological knowledge: The biota–environment interaction. Ecological Complexity, 1(1), 17–36.
Grinin, L., & Grinin, A. (2023a). Analyzing social self-organization and historical dynamics. Future cybernetic W-society: Sociopolitical aspects. In V. Sadovnichy et al. (Eds.), Reconsidering the limits to growth. A report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome (pp. 491–519). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_21
Grinin, L., & Grinin, A. (2023b). Technology. Limitless possibilities, effective control. In V. Sadovnichy et al. (Eds.), Reconsidering the limits to growth. A report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome (pp. 139–154). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_8
Grinin, L., Grinin, A., & Korotayev, A. (2021). COVID-19 pandemic as a trigger for the acceleration of the cybernetic revolution, transition from E-government to E-state, and change in social relations. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 175, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121348
Grinin, L., Grinin, A., & Korotayev, A. (2023a). Global aging–An integral problem of the future. How to turn a problem into a development driver? In V. Sadovnichy et al. (Eds.), Reconsidering the limits to growth. A report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome (pp. 117–135). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_7
Grinin, L., Grinin, A., & Malkov, S. (2023b). Socio-political transformations. A difficult path to cybernetic society. In V. Sadovnichy et al. (Eds.), Reconsidering the limits to growth. A report to the Russian association of the Club of Rome (pp. 169–189). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_10
Gvishiani, D. (1977). Metodologicheskiye problemy modelirovaniya global′nogo razvitiya. VNIISI.
Gvishiani, D. (1980). Methodological problems of global development modelling. In E. Velikhov et al. (Eds.), Science, technology and the future: Soviet scientists’ analysis of the problems of and prospects for the development of science and technology and their role in society (pp. 21–35). Pergamon.
Gvishiani, D. (Ed.). (1984). Systems research: Methodological problems. Pergamon Press.
Gvishiani, D. (1986). Priroda modeley i modeley prirody. Mysl.
Gvishiani, D. (2010). Mosty v budushchee. Rimskiy klub, IFIAS, Venskiy sovet. URSS.
Gvishiani, D., Velikhov, E., Leybin, V., et al. (1991). Modelirovaniye protsessov mirovogo razvitiya i sotrudnichestva. Nauka.
Kapitza, S. (1992). A mathematical model for global population growth. Matematicheskoe modelirovanie, 4(6), 65–79.
Kapitza, S. (1996). Phenomenological theory of world population growth. Physics Uspekhi, 39(1), 57–71. https://doi.org/10.1070/PU1996v039n01ABEH000127
Kapitza, S. (1999a). Obshchaya teoriya rosta chelovechestva. Skol′ko lyudey zhilo, zhivet i budet zhit′ na Zemle. Nauka.
Kapitza, S. (1999b). An essay on the demographic imperative: Non-linear theory of growth of humankind. The Edwin Mellen Press.
Kapitza, S. (2003). The statistical theory of global population growth. In Formal descriptions of developing systems (pp. 11–35). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0064-2_2
Kapitza, S. (2006). Global population blow-up and after. A report to the Club of Rome. Global Marshall Plan Initiative.
Kapitza, S. (2010). On the theory of global population growth. Physics Uspekhi, 53(12), 1287–1296. https://doi.org/10.3367/UFNe.0180.201012g.1337
Korotayev, A., Shulgin, S., Ustyuzhanin, V., Zinkina, J., & Grinin, L. (2023). Modeling social self-organization and historical dynamics. Africa's futures. In V. Sadovnichy et al. (Eds.), Reconsidering the limits to growth. A report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome (pp. 461–490). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_20
Kurdyumov, S., Kapitza, S., & Malinetskii, G. (1999). Synergetics and the study of the future (Russian geographical, geopolitical and futurological studies). The Edwin Mellen Press Ltd.
Makarieva, A., Gorshkov, V., & Li, B. (2008). Energy budget of the biosphere and civilization: Rethinking environmental security of global renewable and non-renewable resources. Ecological Complexity, 5(4), 281–288.
Malkov, S., Bilyuga, S., & Musieva, J. (2023a). Modeling social self-organization and historical dynamics. Life quality index. In V. Sadovnichy et al. (Eds.), Reconsidering the limits to growth. A report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome (pp. 521–530). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_22
Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Grinin, A., Musieva, J., & Korotayev, A. (2023b). Modeling social self-organization and historical dynamics. Global phase transitions. In V. Sadovnichy et al. (Eds.), Reconsidering the limits to growth. A report to the Russian association of the Club of Rome (pp. 387–417). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_18
Malkov, S., Kovaleva, N., Grinin, L., & Korotayev, A. (2023c). Modeling social self-organization and historical dynamics. Agrarian society. In V. Sadovnichy et al. (Eds.), Reconsidering the limits to growth. A report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome (pp. 309–335). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_16
Meadows, D., & Booth Sweeney, L. (2010). The systems thinking playbook: Exercises to stretch and build learning and systems thinking capabilities. Chelsea Green Publishing.
Meadows, D., & Booth Sweeney, L. (2016). The climate change playbook: 22 systems thinking games for more effective communication about climate change. Chelsea Green Publishing.
Meadows, D., Meadows, D., & Randers, J. (1992). Beyond the limits: Confronting global collapse, envisioning a sustainable future. Post Mills.
Meadows, D., Meadows, D., Randers, J., & Behrens, W. W. (1972). The limits to growth. A report to The Club of Rome. Potomac Associates.
Meadows, D., Randers, J., & Meadows, D. (2004). Limits to growth. The 30-year update. Chelsea Green Publisher.
Moiseev, N. (1982). Chelovek, okruzhayushchaya sreda, obshchestvo. Problema formalizatsii opisaniya. Nauka.
Moiseev, N. (1990). Chelovek i noosfera. Molodaya gvardiya.
Moiseev, N. (1996). Limits of predictability for Biospheric processes. In Y. A. Kravtsov & J. B. Kadtke (Eds.), Predictability of complex dynamical systems (pp. 169–185). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-80254-6_10
Moiseev, N. (2022). How far it is to tomorrow…. Birkhäuser. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-96651-5
Moiseev, N., Alexandrov, V., & Tarko, A. (1985). Chelovek i biosfera: opyt sistemnogo analiza i eksperimenty s modelyami. Nauka.
Prigogine, I. (1997). The end of certainty. Free Press.
Prigogine, I. (2017). Non-equilibrium statistical mechanics (Dover books on physics). Dover Publications.
Prigogine, I., & Stengers, I. (1984). Order out of chaos: Man's new dialogue with nature. Bantam.
Prigogine, I., & Stengers, I. (2018). Order out of chaos: Man’s new dialogue with nature (2nd ed.). Verso Books.
Randers, J. (2012). 2052. A global forecast for the next forty years. A report to the club of Rome. Chelsea Green Publishing.
Randers, J., Rockström, J., Stoknes, P. E., Golüke, U., Collste, D., & Cornell, S. (2018). Transformation is feasible. A report to the Club of Rome. Stockholm Resilience Centre.
Romanovsky, Y., Stepanova, N., & Chernavsky, D. (1975). Matematicheskoye modelirovaniye v biofizike. Nauka.
Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Ilyin, I., Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Sayamov, Y., & Korotayev, A. (2023). Introduction. Hoping for the future. In V. Sadovnichy et al. (Eds.), Reconsidering the limits to growth. A report to the Russian association of the Club of Rome (pp. 1–14). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_1
Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Korotayev, A., & Malkov, S. (2012). Modelirovaniye i prognozirovaniye mirovoy dinamiki. ISPI RAN.
Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Korotayev, A., & Malkov, S. (2014). Kompleksnoye modelirovaniye i prognozirovaniye razvitiya stran BRIKS v kontekste mirovoy dinamiki. Nauka.
Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Korotayev, A., Malkov, S., & Sokolov, V. (2017). Analiz i modelirovaniye mirovoy i stranovoy dinamiki. LENAND.
Tikhonov, A., & Samarskii, A. (2011). Equations of mathematical physics. Dover Publications.
Vernadsky, V. (1998). The biosphere. Copernicus.
Vernadsky, V. (2012). Biosphere and noosphere. Iris-Press.
Vernadsky, V. (2013). Collected works: In 24 volumes. Nauka.
Vernadsky, V. (2015). The study of life and the new physics. 21st Century Science & Technology.
Vernadsky, V. (2018). Geochemistry and the biosphere: Essays. Synergetic Press.
Acknowledgements
This work was done with the support of MSU Program of Development, Project No 23A-SCH05-03.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Sadovnichy, V. et al. (2023). Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. An Overview. In: Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Ilyin, I., Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_14
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_14
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-34998-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-031-34999-7
eBook Packages: Social SciencesSocial Sciences (R0)