Abstract
Due to current energy shortage and climate change in China, it is necessary to predict the energy demand and carbon emission of urban passenger transport in the future. Firstly, the urban passenger transport is divided into three parts: bus, taxi and car, and the demand of future urban passenger transport is forecasted by using the national energy technology model. Modeling the urban passenger transport network from a System dynamics perspective. In the transport part, the number of vehicles, the proportion of fuel types and the energy consumption per 100 km are considered, and the energy consumption of transport travel is calculated by using the transport energy consumption equation. Using 2021 as the base year, four scenarios were set to assess the energy saving and emission reduction potential under different policy needs, including keeping the baseline scenario of urban development inertia, considering the speed limit of urban vehicles and further optimizing the speed control scenario of public transport system, and considering the promotion of shared mode of travel shared scenarios, and according to the national renewable energy automobile industry development planning overall goal of electric vehicle scenario. This paper analyzes travel demand, energy consumption demand and carbon emission intensity under different scenarios, and puts forward policy suggestions on public transportation energy saving and emission reduction planning.
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© 2023 ICST Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering
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Zeng, Y., Hu, J., Li, J., Huang, K. (2023). Research on Low Carbon Development Planning of Public Transportation Energy Based on System Dynamics. In: Yang, H., Fei, J., Qiang, T. (eds) Smart Grid and Innovative Frontiers in Telecommunications. SmartGIFT 2022. Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, vol 483. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-31733-0_22
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-31733-0_22
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